Which Team Will Draft Trey Burke On Thursday?

Photo Credit: ESPN

With the NCAA and NBA seasons now wrapped up, the basketball focus on the nation is now fully turned to the NBA Draft this Thursday.  This is a day that is both adored and hated by fans across the nation.  Some of the most exciting moments in the NBA have started here, but some of the worst blunders have started here as well.  Just take a look at the 2007 and 2008 drafts.  Greg Oden (now considered a colossal flop) was taken #1 in 2007, but Derrick Rose (2011 NBA MVP) was taken #1 in the next season.  It's become almost unpredictable, which makes the night incredibly exciting.

For Michigan, there are two prospects that have the focus of the fans.  First and foremost is point guard Trey Burke who won the National Player of the Year last season at the college level (the other is Tim Hardaway, Jr).  Many Wolverine fans are looking for a big night from Burke, but what will ultimately happen?  Will the NBA teams respond to the hype and select Burke in the first few picks or will they agree with the criticisms and drop him lower in the selections?  Let's take a look at what the experts are predicting:

• Chad Ford (ESPN) - #8 on Big Board
• Matt Moore (CBS) - #6 by New Orleans
• Gary Parrish (CBS) - #2 by Orlando
• NBADraft.net - #6 by New Orleans
• Draft Express (DE) - #6 by New Orleans

I'm not going to go through every prediction, but the popular logic is that Trey Burke will be going one of three places: Orlando, New Orleans, or Detroit.  If he goes anywhere beyond the Pistons it will certainly be one of the biggest draft night falls in recent memory.  All three of these teams would make for interesting landing spots for Burke.  First, Orlando could use a point guard and being drafted #2 would say a lot about their confidence in Burke for the future.  New Orleans does have Austin Rivers on the roster, but having Burke and Rivers in the backcourt could give them a dynamic lineup similar to the one seen from the Golden State Warriors in recent years and one that could lead the Pelicans (yes, they are now the Pelicans) to a bright future.  Finally, the Pistons would be an exciting drafting spot for most Michigan fans as it would allow Burke to remain in the state of Michigan and also give the team a talented prospect.

It's not hard to see the Pistons as the best landing spot for Burke with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe already on the roster, but any of these places would be alright.  New Orleans could turn into something special with Rivers and Anthony Davis to potentially play alongside Burke.  Can you imagine Burke feeding Davis down-low or running offensive players into Davis' waiting hands on defense?  It's a fun thing to imagine.  My suspicion is that Burke will end up in New Orleans.  The NBA Draft can be nearly impossible to predict, but it seems like the agents and "experts" are talking Burke down to replace him with guys like Alex Len (Maryland) and Anthony Bennett (UNLV) because of their "potential" (that wasn't all that visible in their college days).  Either way, look for Burke to wind up in one of these three places to begin what should likely be a successful NBA career.

Way Too Early Bracketology (Big Ten Style)

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

In the craziness that is college basketball, ESPN has released their first projected bracket for the 2014 NCAA Tournament.  There are plenty of flaws and valid criticisms in any of these brackets and especially on one this early.  Not all of the players have made their NBA announcements, players could be suspended or kicked off teams, 2013 recruiting is not completely finished, and there is always the concern about offseason injuries.  Despite all of these criticis
ms, I'm going to take a quick look at the bracket and specifically the Big Ten teams projected to make the tourney.

#1 Seed - MSU
The Spartans (who are likely to be the preseason Big Ten favorite) are the highest projected Big Ten team in this bracket projection.  They ended up being a #3 seed in the last NCAA Tournament and bring back everybody except Derrick Nix.  Adreian Payne has not made his NBA decision yet, but many believe he will return to East Lansing after a great season.  To me, this is a tricky projection.  On one hand, they have a ton of proven players and proven starters.  Picking against a team that returns 4 of 5 starters from a squad that nearly won the Big Ten is not typically a good idea.  However, there are some very big concerns about this team.  Of course, the first is whether Payne will return.  If he opts to go to the NBA, there is no way MSU deserves to be projected this high.  For this, I'm going to just assume he returns.  The next question is about who occupies the 5th starting spot.  They have a few other big men, but none have been that great and will be a big downgrade from Nix.  They also have a few guys like Trice that could make a push for the spot, but does Tom Izzo want to go with a smaller lineup and where does that leave MSU's bench?  They have very limited bench production and pulling one of their best bench players for a starting role is going to force guys like Harris and Appling to play some major minutes.  Essentially, they have to either bite the bullet of putting a weaker production guy into the starting lineup or have a virtually non-existent bench.  They are good enough to beat the most teams even with this problem, but against the very best?  I'm not convinced.  Verdict: Too High

#2 Seed - Michigan
The Wolverines return from their national title game appearance with some major departures in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.  However, they also bring in some highly touted recruits in point guard Derrick Walton and wing Zak Irvin.  Plus, bench players like Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht have another year under their belts to help make up for the lost production from Burke and Hardaway.  The team also returns 3 starters in Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas.  All of these players will be entering their sophomore seasons looking to improve on their game.  Plus, solid depth upfront in Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Max Bielfeldt will help.  This team has major question marks at the point and how to make up for a ton of lost production, but they certainly have all the weapons they need to recover.  Will they be as good as last season?  Probably not, but if Derrick Walton is even close to what he has been projected to be, the Wolverines should be a pretty good team.  This may be an optimistic view, but with an easier Big Ten, improved depth, more experience, and some great recruiting, this projection probably isn't too far off.  Verdict: Good Projection

#2 Seed - Ohio State
Similar to Michigan, the Buckeyes are looking to replace their best player going into next season.  They still bring back some big weapons in Aaron Craft and LaQuinton Ross, but for a team that struggled at times offensively, losing the team's best offensive player is not a good sign.  The Buckeyes are bringing in some solid wing players, but I still am not sure how this team will replace Deshaun Thomas.  Their bench was pretty weak last year and they don't seem to have the answer in their incoming recruiting class.  They're good players, but not built for Thomas' role.  The guys best lined up are Ross and Sam Thompson, but both were very inconsistent last season.  Unless one of these two guys break out, look for the Buckeyes to rely heavily on defense to feed their offense and an offense that lacks a "go to" scorer.  I underestimated Matta's abilities coming into this past season, but can they really compete with the best teams?  As much as it may bother some Michigan fans, they probably are going to end up close to this projection.  Their defense is just so good that it can carry them.  I wouldn't select them for a deep tourney run, but they certainly can earn this projection.  Verdict: Good Projection

#4 Seed - Indiana
The Hoosiers are experiencing some major offseason losses.  They lose 4 of their 5 starters and the best two players on their team.  However, they hold onto their talented point guard Yogi Ferrell and bring in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation.  They have a legitimate replacement for every major player they lost in this recruiting class and that doesn't even take into account talented bench players like Will Sheehey and freshmen like Jeremy Hollowell and Hanner Mosquera-Perea who barely played at all last season.  Whether Big Ten fans like it or not, Indiana is here to stay.  There is just too much talent in this recruiting class and off the bench for nobody to be productive.  Will they take a step back from this season?  Most likely, but they were also ranked #1 before this season.  How they're going to deal with their scholarship issues will be interesting to watch, but expect this team to be able to battle with many of the Big Ten powers, especially at home.  Verdict: Good Projection

#5 Seed - Wisconsin
Ah, the pesky Badgers.  Somehow, they stay relevant every year under Bo Ryan.  Unless the NCAA can get some of the rule changes through like shortening the shot clock, expect Wisconsin to be right in the mix of things next season.  The problem is that they are losing a ton heading into this season.  They lose Berggren, Evans, and Brusewitz.  They are going to need some younger guys to step up and play physical in the frontcourt.  All the writing on the wall says to write this team off, but I've learned my lesson on Wisconsin.  They will find a way to stay relevant and do just enough to be in contention for the Big Ten in the last few weeks of the season.  Wisconsin has finished 4th or better in the Big Ten in every year under Ryan.  That's 12 seasons.  However, their play doesn't carry that well outside of the conference where referees actually have to call the game of basketball.  Seeing this and a probable drop in conference strength, this might be a tad too high.  Verdict: Too High

#7 Seed - Iowa
The Hawkeyes were the dark horse pick for the Big Ten this season.  Unfortunately for them, they didn't really live up to the hype (if you believe darkhorse teams get hype).  They were unable to record marquee wins and ended up being relegated to the NIT Tournament where they finished as the runner-up.  In all honesty, this team should have made the tourney this season, but the selection committee decided to pick less deserving teams, but that is a different debate.  Iowa brings pretty much everything back and should be able to beat up on a lot more teams this season with more experience and with all the talent that left the Big Ten this offseason.  I think they will make the tourney, but I also think people are getting a little too carried away with this projection.  Iowa has improved, but they still aren't going to beat many top teams.  More, but not many.  Without those wins, they aren't going to become a #7 seed.  Verdict: Too High 

#11 Seed - Illinois
I was actually shocked to see the Illini put here at first.  They are the last Big Ten team projected to make the NCAA Tournament.  They had a good year under first year coach John Groce, but they lose virtually everything from their team.  They do bring in some big time recruits in the backcourt to help make up for Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, but that's still going to be a challenge.  The more I look at this team though, the more I believe they can make it back to the tourney.  Groce is a good coach and knows how to use his talent.  I actually think they may end up higher than this when all is said and done.  Losing Paul is huge, but I think the recruiting will pay off.  Verdict: Too Low  

Not Selected - Purdue
How the Boilermakers were not projected to the NCAA Tournament is beyond me.  This team brings back a ton of talent and were massively improved during the season.  They were extremely young and that's why a huge portion of their losses came early in the year.  Take away a bunch of their early losses and this team probably would have been close to the bubble this year.  They are not going to lose those type of games next year and have a very talented roster.  Verdict: Way Too Low

2013 Michigan NBA Draft Hotboard

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Michigan's roster has been experiencing the full weight of the NBA and the NBA Draft since their National Championship game appearance against Louisville.  As of now, Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. have declared for the NBA Draft.  Everyone else has either made no inclinations of their desire to go to the NBA this year or verbally announced (McGary & GR3) that they would be returning to Ann Arbor next season.  Until April 28th, players can still declare for the NBA Draft, so things are not 100% guaranteed until then.  There are still many interested in not only the impact of those who stayed, but also the impact of those who left on the team and their status in the draft.  In order to help, I've made a short post that should keep you updated on what is going on with the NBA Draft and its relation to Michigan.

HMM Coverage:

• Analysis: Which Team Will Draft Trey Burke?
• Analysis: Which Team Will Draft THJ?
• Making the Case: A New NBA Draft
• Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft
• Quick Thoughts: Burke To The NBA
• Quick Thoughts: Hardaway To The NBA
• Quick Thoughts: GR3 & McGary Returning

National Coverage:

• ESPN: Trey Burke's Profile
• ESPN: Tim Hardaway's Profile
• ESPN: Mitch McGary's Profile
• ESPN: GR3's Profile
• ESPN: Trey Burke Enters Draft
• ESPN: Hardaway To Enter Draft
• ESPN: Case For Burke As The #1 Pick
• CBS: Trey Burke To The NBA
• CBS: Hardaway To The NBA
• CBS: GR3 and McGary Return to Michigan
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From Trey Burke's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From THJ's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From Mitch McGary's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From GR3's NBA Announcement

General NBA Draft Coverage:

• NBA.com
• ESPN
• CBS
• Jeff Goodman Mock Draft
• Chad Ford's Top 100
• Hoops Hype
• Draft Express
• NBADraft

Preseason Rankings Breakdown For Michigan & The Big Ten

Every major media outlet this time of year has come out with their own preseason rankings, whether it's overall or conference standings. ESPN has their list, Sports Illustrated has their list. For the most part, it looks like some of them are looking over and cheating off their classmates since they look so similar. I'm going to examine the AP poll first, since that's the one primarily used by ESPN and fans nationwide.

Here you will find a link for ESPN Big Ten bloggers that have given their predictions for the season. I've already given mine a few months ago. Now, obviously, if you compare the two, I disagree with them both since I don't agree with Michigan State beating Wisconsin. I had predicted Michigan beating Wisconsin, and I stand by that. So the poll says Michigan is the top Big Ten team and I won't dissent to that. Wisconsin at 12 should be above West Virginia and Arkansas, but not South Carolina. Marcus Lattimore drives that team and should have a stellar season back from injury. I'm good with Michigan State right behind them. Nebraska at 17 and Ohio State at 18 make sense, yet USA Today doesn't even have the Buckeyes ranked. Postseason ineligible or not, they should be ranked above Auburn, Boise St, etc...

Updating The 2013 ESPN100's Michigan Commits And Targets

In some of the better news of the offseason for Michigan basketball, ESPN has released their updated rankings for the 2013 class.  This takes all of the summer play that has occured into account so they can adjust their rankings.  Although these rankings are not cemented and are just about guaranteed to change before the players get on campus, this is when the list starts to get pretty solidified and it's much rarer to see players move too far up and down.  The scouts have finally gotten a good look at just about everyone and have seen for themselves whether they are the real deal or not.

Just a few quick reminders.  First, I have generally found that ESPN's basketball recruiting coverage has been the best of all the major recruiting services.  It's not perfect, but it has been the best.  Other services have done some great things and I think that they have improved in some areas, but overall, I still give the nod to ESPN.  The most important thing, however, is to compare where recruits are placed on different lists.  If a person uses just one or two services, they are probably going to get a limited idea of a recruit's potential.  Combining different recruiting services, offer lists, and videos seems to be the bes method for review.  You can see all the major scouting rankings for each class here.  Regardless, here are the rankings for the ESPN100 in 2013:

Updated 2013 ESPN300 - Michigan Commits And Targets

ESPN has updated its football rankings and released its list of the 300 best football players for the 2013 recruiting class.  Michigan's commits and targets have filled the list.  Brady Hoke and his staff have done an excellent job in all of his recruiting classes, but Michigan's 2013 football recruiting class has been absolutely phenomenal.  


The ratings on this list are not perfect by any means, but they do give us a better understanding of these players, especially after The Opening last weekend where some of Michigan's players had some great performances.  The questions everybody seems to have had over the last week or so is where Michigan's commits and targets would end up if they performed well at the Nike Camp.  Well, some of Michigan's players did great and we can see that in the updated rankings.

Breaking Down Michigan's Targets In The 2014 ESPN60

ESPN has released their 2014 basketball rankings and it has worked out well for Michigan's 2014 recruiting targets.  These type of rankings mean little in the long run, especially because recruits often outperform or underperform these ratings once their arrive on campus, but they are probably some of the clearest measures for high school talent and when coupled with other ratings, can usually be relatively accurate in their predictions.


Just a few quick reminders.  First, I have generally found that ESPN's basketball recruiting coverage has been the best of all the major recruiting services.  It's not perfect, but it has been the best.  Other services have done some great things and I think that they have improved in some areas, but overall, I still give the nod to ESPN.  The most important thing, however, is to compare where recruits are placed on different lists.  If a person uses just one or two services, they are probably going to get a limited idea of a recruit's potential.  Combining different recruiting services, offer lists, and video seems to be the best.  Regardless, here are the rankings for the ESPN60 in 2014:

Introducing 2014 Prospect Kevon Looney

Michigan's 2014 recruiting is now in full swing after an exciting Offer Day last Friday.  Michigan has only offered Devin Booker and Keita Bates-Diop, as of now, but as more recruits make it to campus, that number should start to increase.  One of the prime targets of an offer would be Kevon Looney.  He's from Milwaukee and seems to be somebody that is a big interest to Michigan.

He has easily one of the best recruits on the board for the 2014 class and would probably end up being the biggest recruit in Michigan's 2014 class, if he ever committed.  He's a great shooter and seems to control the ball pretty well.  The big thing I would see from the listing is that I think he needs to get a tad bigger to play in the Big Ten.  Obviously, he doesn't need to put on 30 lbs or something, but going through conference play is rough for somebody that's nearly seven foot and under 200 lbs.

Previewing Big Ten Basketball: Northwestern

In this post, we move on to an interesting Northwestern team.  Earlier, I talked about how teams like Minnesota and Iowa have improved over recent years.  Northwestern has done the same, but they had an ultimate letdown of a season  last year and aren't looking great for next year.  Northwestern had some points where they played quite well, such as their victory over eventual #1 seed MSU, but their inexplicable losses derailed the season and ultimately cost them a shot at their first NCAA Tournament berth.

Northwestern had a promising start to their season, starting 10-1 and eventually ending up 15-8.  However, they then went 3-5 in their last eight games and limped into the NIT Tournament.  The most important part of that 3-5 finish was that they blew two games in overtime and lost a tight game at home to Ohio State.  If they had won any of those three games, there's a good chance they would have made the NCAA Tournament.  Frankly, they just didn't come up in crunch-time often enough to make a real run.

Carlton Brundidge Transfers To Detroit

In recent days, the final transfer from Michigan's 2011-2012 squad has announced that he will be transferring to Detroit.  Most speculated that this was his most likely destination so it shouldn't come as a major surprise for those following the situation. He is one of three players that announced they would be transferring following the season.  I was a bit surprised when I first heard the news, especially considering that he was only a freshman, but if a player doesn't fit it does them no good to stay around.

Brundidge was one of Michigan's most heralded recruits in Michigan's 2011 recruiting class.  He was rated as a 4* by ESPN and was Michigan's highest recruit on the ESPN100 at #76 (Trey Burke was #84).  To see a player come into a program with those types of ratings and then do little to nothing is pretty disappointing.  Most expected him to be a big part of Michigan's team in the future.  However, it just never seemed to quite work out with him.

Wrapping Up 'Offer Day' For Michigan

It was an exciting day on the basketball recruiting front.  There may not have been any verbal commitments, but there was surely a ton of action throughout the day.  Not only for Michigan, but the entire country.  Michigan's main focus for the day was on Devin Booker and Keita Bates-Diop.  They were the only players that were offered today and they are, without a doubt, the base of Michigan's 2014 recruiting.

Earlier this week, I said that I wasn't convinced that anybody would commit on 'Offer Day', but that Booker was the most likely candidate if somebody did commit.  Obviously, nobody committed today, but that shouldn't be a negative for Michigan fans.  Yes, at this time last year Beilein already had two commitments, but Michigan is in great position for many high profile recruits in the coming months and I still do believe it's only a matter of time before Devin Booker commits to Michigan.  He was tweeting earlier today about the desire to talk things over with his family before making any college decision and personally, that doesn't bother me one bit.

New Ranking A Sign Of Beilein's Progress At Michigan

Recently, ESPN did an analysis on Big Ten basketball and ranked which head coaching jobs they thought were the best in the conference.  Normally, I don't respond to these types of lists because they're pretty arbitrary and are often based on some questionable logic, but I decided to respond to this one because of what it symbolizes for Michigan's basketball program.  Indiana, in unsurprising fashion, led the Big Ten as the best coaching job.  However, perhaps the most exciting placement was Michigan at #4, just behind OSU and MSU respectively.

As I said, normally these lists don't mean much, but I do think this is a sign of what John Beilein has done for Michigan's program over the last several years.  When Beilein took the job, Michigan was in the wake of a major scandal and had a lengthy absence from any relevance.  In fact, by time Beilein got Michigan back to the NCAA Tournament in his second season, Michigan had gone over 10 years without going to the NCAA Tournament.

To overcome these factors in what has become the best basketball conference in basketball and have the #4 coaching job is pretty impressive.  I mean, look at Wisconsin and Purdue.  Both teams were fairly consistent before and during Beilein's tenure, but Michigan was ranked above them.  Now, once again, I want to point out that these types of lists are never 100% accurate, especially because they often judge such arbitrary topics like "best coaching job", but it's still interesting to look at for Michigan's progress.

Who Could Be Michigan's First 2014 Commit?

As most following Michigan basketball know by now, Michigan will extend its first offers to 2014 recruits on June 15th.  Now, we don't know how many offers Michigan will extend on the 15th or how long it will take to gets the first commitment of 2014, but we can take a look at who will be the most likely to commit first.  There are a few likely candidates and there's always the possibility that several recruits will commit on the spot as some of the 2013 recruits did last summer, but I think one candidate rises above the rest as a likely commit.

Devin Booker, a 2014 SG from Moss Point High School in Mississippi, looks to me as the prime candidate for a quick commitment for Michigan.  Ranked as a 4* recruit by ESPN and as the #23 player on the ESPN60 for 2014, he would be a great pick-up for Michigan.  Beilein and his staff have dedicated a tremendous amount of time to recruiting Booker and he appears to be one of their priorities for this recruiting class.  He's been on campus several times and has also communicated with the coaches on numerous occasions over the past year.

Scout's 2013 Rankings Hurt Michigan

As I wrote about earlier, Michigan's 2013 basketball recruiting class has been receiving a lot of love from the recruiting services.  ESPN has ranked the class #2 in the nation and as the best in the Big Ten.  Scout has expressed a similar sentiment, but not quite as positive.  Scout has put Michigan's 2013 class as #6 in the nation, but as only the 3rd best in the Big Ten, behind Purdue and Indiana.

I'm not one that claims Michigan's recruits are always underrated like many analysts seem to do, but I would like to point out the differences between ESPN and Scout's rankings.  ESPN's basketball coverage has almost always been superior to Rivals and Scout, so I tend to lean towards their rankings, but that's not the only reason I think ESPN's rankings are more accurate for Michigan's 2013 recruiting class.

Michigan Basketball's 2013 Recruiting Class Ranked #2 In Nation

ESPN have released their 2013 recruiting class rankings and Michigan basketball has fared quite well.  Michigan is currently ranked as the #2 recruiting class in the nation and are only trailing ACC powerhouse North Carolina.  Fellow Big Ten squads Indiana and Purdue are ranked #5 and #6 respectively.  What is perhaps more astonishing is that neither Michigan State or Ohio State are ranked in the top ten recruiting classes, despite their recent success on the court.

Michigan's class is built off the recruits strong performances in the ESPN100.  Right now,  3 of the members of the 2013 recruiting class are ranked inside the ESPN100 and the final member needs an asterisk next to his name.  Austin Hatch was involved in a near fatal airplane crash and his status as a basketball player is still up in the air.  If he hadn't been in that horrible tragedy, Michigan may actually be ranked #1 right now and ultimately, if Hatch recovers as many assume, Michigan's class may be much more talented than it looks in the current rankings.

Updated ESPN150, Michigan Continues to Dominate

The Wolverines continue to dominate the 2013 recruiting class with players like Shane Morris, David Dawson, and Logan Tuley-Tillman. Michigan has 11 commits in the newest updated ESPN150 list, and now we break them down.

32. Shane Morris (QB)
It's no surprise that Shane Morris is still the top 2013 recruit for the Wolverines. As the first big-time recruit at QB for Brady Hoke, Morris has already made a loud name for himself by winning MVP honors at the Columbus Elite 11 camp. Everyone is very excited to get this kid on campus, and it's easy to see why.

At 6'3", 190 pounds, Shane Morris is primarily a pocket passer, although he has shown the ability to move around in the pocket if need be. Most analysts refer to Morris as having the strongest arm in his class. The only major concern I can see at this point is accuracy. Through the Elite 11 process, Morris has shown streaks of brilliance in delivering the ball on a string, but he needs to work on making that a consistent outcome. He has the arm strength to put the ball just about wherever he wants it.

Other Notable Offers: Alabama, Cincinnati, Michigan State.