Northwestern had a promising start to their season, starting 10-1 and eventually ending up 15-8. However, they then went 3-5 in their last eight games and limped into the NIT Tournament. The most important part of that 3-5 finish was that they blew two games in overtime and lost a tight game at home to Ohio State. If they had won any of those three games, there's a good chance they would have made the NCAA Tournament. Frankly, they just didn't come up in crunch-time often enough to make a real run.
Now, I still refuse to give Northwestern the title of the Big Ten's biggest letdown, I give that to Illinois, but I have no doubt that it was a tough season for their fans. Since they blew games against Michigan and Ohio State, they really only had one solid win the entire season, which was against MSU. All of Northwestern's wins, except MSU, were against teams that finished 8th or worse in the Big Ten. I don't think I have to say a lot to explain the weakness of that performance. A team can't move on to the next level if it can only beat teams like Penn State and Nebraska. Their weak play is clearly evidenced in the stats below:
Record
|
Big Ten
|
PPG
|
PPG Rank
|
Points Allowed
|
Points Allowed Rk
|
3pt%
|
3pt% Rk
| |
MSU
|
29-8
|
13-5
|
72.3
|
3
|
59.3
|
2
|
36.2
|
6
|
OSU
|
31-8
|
13-5
|
75.1
|
2
|
59.8
|
3
|
33.3
|
9
|
Michigan
|
24-10
|
13-5
|
66.5
|
8
|
61.5
|
4
|
35.0
|
8
|
Wisconsin
|
26-10
|
12-6
|
63.9
|
10
|
53.2
|
1
|
36.8
|
5
|
Indiana
|
27-9
|
11-7
|
77.3
|
1
|
66.4
|
10
|
43.1
|
1
|
Purdue
|
22-13
|
10-8
|
72.2
|
4
|
66.0
|
9
|
37.7
|
3
|
NU
|
19-14
|
8-10
|
69.5
|
6
|
68.2
|
11
|
38.6
|
2
|
18-17
|
8-10
|
71.9
|
5
|
72.5
|
12
|
37.3
|
4
| |
23-15
|
6-12
|
67.4
|
7
|
64.8
|
6
|
35.6
|
7
| |
17-15
|
6-12
|
65.6
|
9
|
64.2
|
5
|
30.4
|
12
| |
12-18
|
4-14
|
60.9
|
12
|
65.6
|
7
|
32.4
|
10
| |
12-20
|
4-14
|
61.8
|
11
|
65.8
|
8
|
31.1
|
11
|
Northwestern may have come within one win of the NCAA Tournament last year, but they are not lined up for a great season next year. Yes, they return 4 starters and probably their best bench player Alex Marcutullio, but the fifth starter was also one of Northwestern's best players, ever. Here's some of the records that John Shurna holds with Northwestern; points scored, games played, blocked shots and he is 2nd in games started, field goals, and minutes played in his career. Northwestern may not be a good basketball school, but there's no doubt that Shurna was a great player and that Northwestern is going to take a major loss at his position. They do have some great guys back like Drew Crawford, but again, they're losing their best guy and they still didn't make the NCAA Tournament last year.
Along with losing their best player, Northwestern's 2012 recruiting class is pretty weak. Let's be honest, Northwestern will never be fantastic at recording, but they should be able to haul in better classes than this. Their 2012 class features four recruits and only one received a 3* ranking on ESPN. I realize it's tough for the Wildcats to recruit, but they've only brought in two 3* recruits total in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes. The rest are ranked 2* or below. Basically, these aren't players that are going to instantly come in and "save the day" for Northwestern fans.
One thing that could play a factor for Northwestern is the incoming transfer of Jared Swopshire. He is a transfer from Louisville and although he didn't contribute extensively there, he is pretty experienced and had a solid state line in the 2009-2010 season, the one where he had the most playing time. To me, he's the main candidate to replace John Shurna and if Northwestern is going to be solid next year, a lot is going to depend on Swopshire and how he fits in with the Wildcats.
The Wildcats will certainly not be a horrible team, but I think they are going to have trouble turning that corner and making the NCAA Tournament. Yes, they return 4 starters, their best bench player, and have a solid incoming transfer, but losing Shurna isn't something you can particularly estimate. Along with this, as I pointed out earlier, their run last year was pretty artificially built. They may have finished 7th, but they only had 1 victory over a team that finished above them in the Big Ten standings. Even if they only take a slight step backward, that isn't going to be enough to make the NCAA Tournament and beat the conference's best teams.
Northwestern Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 9th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Small
Upset Status: Small
NCAA Tournament Status: NIT Bid
Along with losing their best player, Northwestern's 2012 recruiting class is pretty weak. Let's be honest, Northwestern will never be fantastic at recording, but they should be able to haul in better classes than this. Their 2012 class features four recruits and only one received a 3* ranking on ESPN. I realize it's tough for the Wildcats to recruit, but they've only brought in two 3* recruits total in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 recruiting classes. The rest are ranked 2* or below. Basically, these aren't players that are going to instantly come in and "save the day" for Northwestern fans.
One thing that could play a factor for Northwestern is the incoming transfer of Jared Swopshire. He is a transfer from Louisville and although he didn't contribute extensively there, he is pretty experienced and had a solid state line in the 2009-2010 season, the one where he had the most playing time. To me, he's the main candidate to replace John Shurna and if Northwestern is going to be solid next year, a lot is going to depend on Swopshire and how he fits in with the Wildcats.
The Wildcats will certainly not be a horrible team, but I think they are going to have trouble turning that corner and making the NCAA Tournament. Yes, they return 4 starters, their best bench player, and have a solid incoming transfer, but losing Shurna isn't something you can particularly estimate. Along with this, as I pointed out earlier, their run last year was pretty artificially built. They may have finished 7th, but they only had 1 victory over a team that finished above them in the Big Ten standings. Even if they only take a slight step backward, that isn't going to be enough to make the NCAA Tournament and beat the conference's best teams.
Northwestern Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 9th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Small
Upset Status: Small
NCAA Tournament Status: NIT Bid
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