Michigan and Big Ten Rankings Review--Week 3

The AP rankings of Week 3 are out. It was a hectic couple days of college football. USC lost to Stanford for the 4th straight year, leaving any chance of the national championship on the doorstep. That's not to say USC is a bad team; they're just not as invincible as the preseason analysts made them out to be over the summer. Florida State is looking like a powerhouse team again, reminiscent of the Seminole's teams from the 90s. Notre Dame thoroughly beat the Spartans, breaking their 14-game home winning streak. Even though the Tennessee Vols have improved, they showed they still have a long way to go in their loss against Florida. Wisconsin needed the whole game to put away Utah State, and of course Indiana lost to Ball State.

All in all it was a decent weekend for Big Ten teams, with only Indiana and Michigan State losing their respective games. Yet, Michigan blew out UMass 63-13, and still ended up dropping one spot in the polls. This is where the fallacy of the strength of schedule comes into play. Remember last week when then No. 6 FSU played Savannah St, were up 55-0 in the 3rd when lightning stopped the game? They were moved to the 5 spot after that. Up one spot after beating a team that is far behind even UMass, and they gained a spot. However, Michigan moved down a spot. Needless to say...I'm not happy. Here's the rest of the polls:

Week 3 Notes With Analysis Of The Irish

Are we into Week 3 already? Michigan fans--we have this game against UMass and then Notre Dame, and then we have our conference opponents. Here's just a few thoughts I had coming into this week's slate of games:

1. I'm sure most people have heard of the Notre Dame/ACC decision by now. While Notre Dame is not a Big Ten school, and now probably never will be, this still does affect some teams. Michigan currently has a contract with ND to play them up until the contract expires in 2020, with years 2018 and 2019 not being played. Okay, so Michigan will be playing ND up through 2017, which amounts to 5 more games. Michigan State has a contract with ND that is valid through 2031, so within the next 5 years neither school will be booted from the schedule. By signing this agreement with the ACC, ND will have to schedule 5 ACC games per season in football. ND is not leaving any conference in football, therefore I'm not sure when the agreement goes into effect. For other sports it's a 5 million buyout and they must wait two years...for football that might start as of next year. So think of it...for 5 years ND has to schedule 5 ACC games, Michigan, MSU, probably Purdue; and traditional games against Navy, USC, and Stanford. That's 11 games right there folks.

Michigan & Big Ten Rankings Review--Week 2--Always About The "W"

The new rankings are out, and there has been quite an upheaval after week 2. Arkansas plummeted out of the Top 25 completely after losing their starting quarterback, and then losing to Louisiana-Monroe. History says it's the second biggest drop next to Appalachian State beating Michigan. Wisconsin is out after losing a tough battle against Oregon St, which then prompted them to fire their offensive coordinator after only 2 games, and Montee Ball probably lost hope of being a Heisman finalist. Nebraska is out after a scorefest with UCLA. And painfully, Oklahoma St is out after losing badly to a RichRod coached Arizona, which after losing Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, is understandable. So here's more tidbits on the new rankings:

AP Top 25
1) Alabama--The "33rd NFL team" holds onto this distinction for the 2nd straight week, and will be there for more 
2) USC--Even with Barkley throwing for 6 TDs, the defense still allowed 21 points from Syracuse. There are some major concerns for the former "best" team in America
3) LSU--Les Miles and Co. should have taken the 2nd spot after dismantling Washington 41-3
4) Oregon--The way Oregon runs the ball is sickeningly good. Won't be surprised if a Heisman finalist appears from this team. 
5) Oklahoma

Michigan & Big Ten Rankings Review--Week 1

Week 1 of 2012 is in the books. There were highlights and lowlights from pretty much every single game. The first week always takes longer, since it was spread out over the course of 5 days until the NFL regular season arrives. South Carolina was there in the beginning, winning a close one over Vanderbilt, and we ended with Virginia Tech winning in overtime against Georgia Tech.  Whoever said the first week everyone played cupcake teams? Even Texas State beating Houston somehow received national attention. Dennis Franchione somehow got a No.16 vote from a voter for that win. The new rankings were released this afternoon (typically on Sunday evening any other week) and I'm giving my two cents worth...if that's cheap enough.

1. Alabama--It's no surprise the Tide were bumped up to the No.1 spot. They completely handled Michigan from start to finish to win 41-14. Rolling up over 400 yds of offense, particularly on the ground, while shutting down Michigan's offense earns them this spot.
2. USC--USC lost the No.1 spot mostly due to they played Hawaii, not Michigan. Barkley looked every bit of a Heisman candidate and Lee caught 10 balls for almost 200 yards. Dominant yes, but not Alabama
3. LSU
4. Oregon
5. Oklahoma--completely overrated in this spot. They did not look clean and smooth and make several mental errors. Missed field goals by UTEP make the score look further out of reach than it really was.

Preseason Rankings Breakdown For Michigan & The Big Ten

Every major media outlet this time of year has come out with their own preseason rankings, whether it's overall or conference standings. ESPN has their list, Sports Illustrated has their list. For the most part, it looks like some of them are looking over and cheating off their classmates since they look so similar. I'm going to examine the AP poll first, since that's the one primarily used by ESPN and fans nationwide.

Here you will find a link for ESPN Big Ten bloggers that have given their predictions for the season. I've already given mine a few months ago. Now, obviously, if you compare the two, I disagree with them both since I don't agree with Michigan State beating Wisconsin. I had predicted Michigan beating Wisconsin, and I stand by that. So the poll says Michigan is the top Big Ten team and I won't dissent to that. Wisconsin at 12 should be above West Virginia and Arkansas, but not South Carolina. Marcus Lattimore drives that team and should have a stellar season back from injury. I'm good with Michigan State right behind them. Nebraska at 17 and Ohio State at 18 make sense, yet USA Today doesn't even have the Buckeyes ranked. Postseason ineligible or not, they should be ranked above Auburn, Boise St, etc...

How To Close The 2013 Recruiting Class?

Just wanted to do a quick post on who I think the last couple spots go two in 2013.  There are many who place the scholarship limit at 24 for 2013, which leaves 1 spot.  However, I think that with these pending offseason issues, the potential for depth losses, and the chance of someone entering the NFL Draft early, I think the class will probably have 25 recruits.


The conceived options are WR Laquon Treadwell and RB Derrick Green.  These two guys are among the best at their respected positions and if one pulls the trigger before the other, I can't possibly see the coaches turning the other one away.  These kids are both top notch and have high interest in the Wolverines. I think the more likely of the two to commit first would be Treadwell even though he has a pending visit to Oklahoma State.  Derrick Green is visiting for the bbq, but I don't possibly see him pulling the trigger so soon in the process.  Still plenty of time for him to make up his mind.. 

USC Takes Over Top Spot On Rivals for 2013 Team Rankings

According to Rivals, Michigan has been surpassed in the 2013 Team Rankings.  Picking up their most recent commit today from 4-star DB Jalen Ramsey, the Trojans have passed the Wolverines.  Most say that when new individual player rankings come out in August Ramsey is likely to pick up his 5th Star.  What is incredible is that USC is operating with scholarship reductions for the 2013 class.  


Scout and ESPN have yet to update their team rankings so I'm curious to see what they do with things.  I'll give you a quick breakdown comparing each team's class as they are viewed on Rivals.  You can be the judge regarding whether you agree and I'll give my opinion at the end of which team I think has the best class.

The Big 10 - Pac 12 Failure

The other day it was announced that the Big Ten/Pac-12 pact was dissolved. After the agreement was reached, Michigan scheduled a home-and-home contest with Utah. Now, Michigan is still holding up to their side of the bargain, and MSU will still play Oregon, but the annual 12 games a season between the two is off. So let's examine some particulars:


1. Sources say 4 teams from the Pac-12 were unwilling to agree to the scheduling. I don't know which 4 teams they were, but from what I've heard, Lane Kiffin and USC were major proponents against it. USC has become the perennial powerhouse of the conference since Pete Carroll took over in the early 2000s. And if Kiffin and USC balk at it, others would have certainly joined in. I know it hasn't been said, but I also wouldn't be surprised if Arizona and RichRod were part of this as well. Rich couldn't beat Big Ten teams when he coached inside the conference and he probably knows he would have a lesser chance now. Not to mention being mocked every time he played against the Big Ten.

Ty Isaac Chooses USC

Photo Credit: ESPN

The Ty Isaac decision has finally come and gone, and Michigan fans have been left with the short end of the stick.  By all markers, Michigan's 2013 recruiting class has been superb.  They currently have 18 commitments in a class that will likely size up to be around 23 recruits and the class has been ranked #1 by numerous scouting services.  However, Michigan has struck out with several big recruits as of late and many fans are feeling disappointed.

By all marks, Isaac was a special type of recruit that could change the entire dynamic of a team.  Scout has him ranked as the #1 running back in the country and as a 5* player.  Rivals has him a bit lower as the #2 running back in the country and a 4*, but will likely be upgraded to a 5* in the near future.  I don't think I need to explain how impressive it is to be either the #1 or #2 running back in any recruiting class.  He is literally a one in a million type of player.

By all reports, Michigan had been in his consideration for a while, but he ultimately decided to commit to USC today.  There's no doubt that USC is going to be getting a great player.  Did he make the right decision?  I really can't say.  I don't know the future, and we have no idea how Michigan and USC's teams will look like when he arrives on campus and when he leaves USC.  The main question should revolve around the impact on Michigan's recruiting class and for the team's future.  Is this something that's going to hurt this class and the team?

There's no doubt that losing out on the #1 or #2 recruit for any position is not a good thing.  However, I really don't think this is something that's going to do a lot of damage long-term.  Why do I believe this?  Take a look at defending Big Ten Champion Wisconsin.  Montee Ball has had amazing success at the running back position and is one of the major reasons why Wisconsin has been so successful as of late.  However, if you asked an NFL scout about Wisconsin's strengths, he probably wouldn't describe Wisconsin's running backs as their strongest position.  Instead, he would probably describe the offensive linemen.

Wisconsin's high-powered offense has been built on elite offensive linemen that have been able to allow the running backs to have great success.  Of course, Ball and Wisconsin's former running backs are talented, but let's be honest.  If there's a huge gaping hole in the defense, most running backs are probably going to do pretty well.  Running backs can have a big impact on a team, but the most important part of running success is the role of offensive linemen.  No matter how good a running back is individually, they are not likely do well without at least a decent offensive line.

Michigan has been recruiting an elite offensive line for the future.  Just look at the 2012 and 2013 Michigan commitments.  Michigan had 4 offensive line commits in 2012, and currently has 5 offensive line commits for the 2013 class.  However, these aren't just random commits.  Almost every one of these commits are elite linemen that can make an enormous impact for Michigan.  Just take a look at 2012 commit Kyle Kalis and 2013 commit Chris Fox.  Rivals has both of these guys as #4 in the country for their positions.

Unless something dramatic happens, Michigan is going to have a very elite offensive line in the near future.  This is important because of what I described above in the case of Wisconsin.  Having an elite running back like Isaac would have certainly helped Michigan's running game, but with these type of elite linemen headed to campus, I really don't think the running game is going to need too much help. 

Just take a look at Michigan's 2012 and 2013 running back commitments.  Michigan currently has four commitments between the two classes and is still in position to land some other elite recruits in 2013.  Along with this, Michigan should have solid running back depth between Fitz Toussaint and Thomas Rawls for at least the next few years.  That means some of these 2012 and 2013 commits will have some time to bulk up and get adjusted to college play.

As I said earlier, losing out on Ty Isaac is never going to be a positive for Michigan, but this currently isn't something that's going to severely hurt this team's chances long-term.  With Michigan's elite incoming offensive linemen and running back depth, I just don't see this as being something that really impacts this team, even in the future in a very significant way.  It is without a doubt a set-back for Michigan's recruiting, but not something that's going to cripple Michigan by any means.  The team's still in very good shape based on Hoke's incredible recruiting.

A Rose Bowl For All?

In a historic move for college football, the Pac 12 and Big Ten officially expanded their Rose Bowl partnership to the regular season.  Rumors about the announcement had circled for weeks regarding all sorts of things including the Michigan - Notre Dame rivalry, the move of Michigan v Ohio State, and about Penn State's Big Ten status.  Although none of these issues were officially recognized, there is no doubt things such as Michigan - Notre Dame will be impacted with these new games.

These new games have all sorts of implications, but first, let's break down the announcement itself.  While most conferences have been attempting to expand and add more teams, the Big Ten has avoided much of this controversy and has only added one team in more than a decade.  Unlike the Big Ten, the Pac 12 had a significant impact in the conference re-alignments by adding teams like Utah, but never had the massive changes like the ACC or Big East.  Although the Big Ten and Pac 12 haven't been the leaders in conference re-alignment, this new partnership was essentially a re-alignment in disguise.

This was a disguised re-alignment because neither conference wanted to alienate schools and fan bases by changing the regularly scheduled teams, but it still has the same goals and aims of a re-alignment.  This new partnership primarily revolves around 12 Big Ten v. Pac 12 football match-ups by the 2017 season, but does talk about other sports.  Granted, 2017 is pretty far ahead, but this still means that every team in the Big Ten will face a Pac 12 opponent every season and vice versa.  Only one game on each team's schedule will be changed as a result, but it will be the most inter-conference play of any two conferences in college football (assuming no other conferences steal this concept).

I think the concept is a big step forward for college football, but it's essentially a re-make of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.  The change revolves around a full conference match-up to remove one "cupcake" from the schedule and equalize opponents based on performance.  I say this because the comments from Delaney and Scott (Big Ten and Pac 12 Commissioners) implied that teams with similar performance will be scheduled together.  For instance, Michigan (10-2) is likely to be scheduled against USC (10-2), while Purdue (6-6) will probably get somebody like UCLA (6-7).

Although the advantages are significant, especially for the conferences and college football, there are also some significant problems in this inter-conference partnership.  The loss of a "cupcake" opponent may seem unimportant, but it has significant impacts on both good and bad teams.  For instance, let's look at Purdue and Michigan.  Purdue finished 6-6 this season during regular season play, while Michigan finished 10-2.  At first glance, increasing the strength of schedule would appear to hurt Purdue more than Michigan, but after further analysis, this is quite debatable.

Instead of scheduling a team like Southeast Missouri State (3-8), Purdue would probably play a team like UCLA (6-7) or Washington (7-5).  Obviously, this is a significant increase in opponent quality.  As a result, Purdue 's 6-6 record would have been much tougher to achieve.  Along with this, Michigan would probably be forced to replace an opponent like Eastern Michigan (6-6) with a team like USC (10-2).  Removing a team like Eastern Michigan and replacing them with a quality opponent wouldn't have been that significant to Michigan's chances this season, but Michigan would be forced to play a very difficult opponent, not just a legitimate team.  This would be a very tough game and make seasons such as this year's at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl much less likely.

This is crucial to analyzing this new agreement between the Big Ten and Pac 12 because it's pretty easy to see how quickly it could impact the conferences.  If the new agreement had been instituted this season and Purdue and Michigan lost their match-ups against the Pac 12, the Big Ten would probably have one less bowl team and one less BCS team.  This is pretty unlikely to please Big Ten fans and schools, but the advantages should outweigh these problems.

I believe this because the Big Ten is very unlikely to lose all of the new games with the Pac 12.  In fact, I think the conference will fare pretty well in the long-term against the Pac 12.  Even looking at this season, which was a weak year for the Big Ten, the Big Ten would have had some great match-ups.  Sure, Oregon, Stanford, and USC would have been tough opponents, but I don't think there's anybody that believes Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan would have lost all three of those games.  Along with that, the Big Ten has other teams such as Nebraska (9-4) that could run over teams like UCLA (6-7) or Washington (7-5).

In the long-term, the Big Ten and Pac 12 are probably going to have overall records that are slightly worse than years past, but the increased schedule strength should counter out the losses, especially for teams that win their inter-conference match-ups.  Keeping this in mind, I believe this is a very good change for both conferences and will work to equalize the schedules across conferences.  The only major fallout I anticipate is with the remaining non-conference scheduling.  As discussed in an earlier article, adding tough non-conference opponents in road or neutral environments is not something most schools are going to be excited about.

This concern is one of the major reasons why Notre Dame will be at risk for being dropped from schedules by teams like Michigan, Michigan State, USC, and Stanford.  With one legitimate non-conference opponent guaranteed through this Big Ten and Pac 12 agreement, there is no real reason to keep a team like Notre Dame on the schedule, other than preserving a "cherished" rivalry.  Will Michigan drop the Irish soon?  Nobody can be sure of that, but it at least seems safe for the next few seasons.  However, fans across the country can be excited for every Big Ten team's miniature Rose Bowl during the first few weeks of every season.  While there was typically only one or two match-ups between the Big Ten and Pac 12 every year, there's going to be a lot more from now on, which should make for some great football.

Photo Credit: Danny Moloshok

Welcome!

Hello and welcome to Hoke's Mad Magicians, a blog dedicated to Michigan collegiate athletics and the University of Michigan. We have recently formed in order to give Michigan fans a better understanding about the current events and history of Michigan and its history and tradition.

The blog's name, Hoke's Mad Magicians, is in honor of the 1947 Michigan Wolverines. This 1947 team was coached by Fritz Crisler and included star athletes Bruce Hikene, Bob Chappius and Bump Elliot and ended the season oustcoring their opponents 394-53. The team was also nicknamed the "Mad Magicians" and finished the year with victories over Michigan State, Ohio State, and USC (in a 48-0 Rose Bowl victory). This win still remains as the largest margin of victory ever for a Rose Bowl game.

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There's some fantastic information on the web, but we think that Hoke's Mad Magicians will bring to light some of the most interesting coverage of Michigan athletics. Please make sure to keep following to get some great insider information and analysis.

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