Big Ten Title Projections - Can Wolverines Afford Loss To MSU?

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I put together a pretty lengthy post breaking down the Big Ten title race.  Read it here:

Big Ten Title Projections - Can Wolverines Afford Loss To MSU?

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin - Can The Wolverines Pull Off The Upset?

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Check out the game preview:

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Way Too Early Bracketology (Big Ten Style)

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In the craziness that is college basketball, ESPN has released their first projected bracket for the 2014 NCAA Tournament.  There are plenty of flaws and valid criticisms in any of these brackets and especially on one this early.  Not all of the players have made their NBA announcements, players could be suspended or kicked off teams, 2013 recruiting is not completely finished, and there is always the concern about offseason injuries.  Despite all of these criticis
ms, I'm going to take a quick look at the bracket and specifically the Big Ten teams projected to make the tourney.

#1 Seed - MSU
The Spartans (who are likely to be the preseason Big Ten favorite) are the highest projected Big Ten team in this bracket projection.  They ended up being a #3 seed in the last NCAA Tournament and bring back everybody except Derrick Nix.  Adreian Payne has not made his NBA decision yet, but many believe he will return to East Lansing after a great season.  To me, this is a tricky projection.  On one hand, they have a ton of proven players and proven starters.  Picking against a team that returns 4 of 5 starters from a squad that nearly won the Big Ten is not typically a good idea.  However, there are some very big concerns about this team.  Of course, the first is whether Payne will return.  If he opts to go to the NBA, there is no way MSU deserves to be projected this high.  For this, I'm going to just assume he returns.  The next question is about who occupies the 5th starting spot.  They have a few other big men, but none have been that great and will be a big downgrade from Nix.  They also have a few guys like Trice that could make a push for the spot, but does Tom Izzo want to go with a smaller lineup and where does that leave MSU's bench?  They have very limited bench production and pulling one of their best bench players for a starting role is going to force guys like Harris and Appling to play some major minutes.  Essentially, they have to either bite the bullet of putting a weaker production guy into the starting lineup or have a virtually non-existent bench.  They are good enough to beat the most teams even with this problem, but against the very best?  I'm not convinced.  Verdict: Too High

#2 Seed - Michigan
The Wolverines return from their national title game appearance with some major departures in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.  However, they also bring in some highly touted recruits in point guard Derrick Walton and wing Zak Irvin.  Plus, bench players like Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht have another year under their belts to help make up for the lost production from Burke and Hardaway.  The team also returns 3 starters in Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas.  All of these players will be entering their sophomore seasons looking to improve on their game.  Plus, solid depth upfront in Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Max Bielfeldt will help.  This team has major question marks at the point and how to make up for a ton of lost production, but they certainly have all the weapons they need to recover.  Will they be as good as last season?  Probably not, but if Derrick Walton is even close to what he has been projected to be, the Wolverines should be a pretty good team.  This may be an optimistic view, but with an easier Big Ten, improved depth, more experience, and some great recruiting, this projection probably isn't too far off.  Verdict: Good Projection

#2 Seed - Ohio State
Similar to Michigan, the Buckeyes are looking to replace their best player going into next season.  They still bring back some big weapons in Aaron Craft and LaQuinton Ross, but for a team that struggled at times offensively, losing the team's best offensive player is not a good sign.  The Buckeyes are bringing in some solid wing players, but I still am not sure how this team will replace Deshaun Thomas.  Their bench was pretty weak last year and they don't seem to have the answer in their incoming recruiting class.  They're good players, but not built for Thomas' role.  The guys best lined up are Ross and Sam Thompson, but both were very inconsistent last season.  Unless one of these two guys break out, look for the Buckeyes to rely heavily on defense to feed their offense and an offense that lacks a "go to" scorer.  I underestimated Matta's abilities coming into this past season, but can they really compete with the best teams?  As much as it may bother some Michigan fans, they probably are going to end up close to this projection.  Their defense is just so good that it can carry them.  I wouldn't select them for a deep tourney run, but they certainly can earn this projection.  Verdict: Good Projection

#4 Seed - Indiana
The Hoosiers are experiencing some major offseason losses.  They lose 4 of their 5 starters and the best two players on their team.  However, they hold onto their talented point guard Yogi Ferrell and bring in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation.  They have a legitimate replacement for every major player they lost in this recruiting class and that doesn't even take into account talented bench players like Will Sheehey and freshmen like Jeremy Hollowell and Hanner Mosquera-Perea who barely played at all last season.  Whether Big Ten fans like it or not, Indiana is here to stay.  There is just too much talent in this recruiting class and off the bench for nobody to be productive.  Will they take a step back from this season?  Most likely, but they were also ranked #1 before this season.  How they're going to deal with their scholarship issues will be interesting to watch, but expect this team to be able to battle with many of the Big Ten powers, especially at home.  Verdict: Good Projection

#5 Seed - Wisconsin
Ah, the pesky Badgers.  Somehow, they stay relevant every year under Bo Ryan.  Unless the NCAA can get some of the rule changes through like shortening the shot clock, expect Wisconsin to be right in the mix of things next season.  The problem is that they are losing a ton heading into this season.  They lose Berggren, Evans, and Brusewitz.  They are going to need some younger guys to step up and play physical in the frontcourt.  All the writing on the wall says to write this team off, but I've learned my lesson on Wisconsin.  They will find a way to stay relevant and do just enough to be in contention for the Big Ten in the last few weeks of the season.  Wisconsin has finished 4th or better in the Big Ten in every year under Ryan.  That's 12 seasons.  However, their play doesn't carry that well outside of the conference where referees actually have to call the game of basketball.  Seeing this and a probable drop in conference strength, this might be a tad too high.  Verdict: Too High

#7 Seed - Iowa
The Hawkeyes were the dark horse pick for the Big Ten this season.  Unfortunately for them, they didn't really live up to the hype (if you believe darkhorse teams get hype).  They were unable to record marquee wins and ended up being relegated to the NIT Tournament where they finished as the runner-up.  In all honesty, this team should have made the tourney this season, but the selection committee decided to pick less deserving teams, but that is a different debate.  Iowa brings pretty much everything back and should be able to beat up on a lot more teams this season with more experience and with all the talent that left the Big Ten this offseason.  I think they will make the tourney, but I also think people are getting a little too carried away with this projection.  Iowa has improved, but they still aren't going to beat many top teams.  More, but not many.  Without those wins, they aren't going to become a #7 seed.  Verdict: Too High 

#11 Seed - Illinois
I was actually shocked to see the Illini put here at first.  They are the last Big Ten team projected to make the NCAA Tournament.  They had a good year under first year coach John Groce, but they lose virtually everything from their team.  They do bring in some big time recruits in the backcourt to help make up for Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, but that's still going to be a challenge.  The more I look at this team though, the more I believe they can make it back to the tourney.  Groce is a good coach and knows how to use his talent.  I actually think they may end up higher than this when all is said and done.  Losing Paul is huge, but I think the recruiting will pay off.  Verdict: Too Low  

Not Selected - Purdue
How the Boilermakers were not projected to the NCAA Tournament is beyond me.  This team brings back a ton of talent and were massively improved during the season.  They were extremely young and that's why a huge portion of their losses came early in the year.  Take away a bunch of their early losses and this team probably would have been close to the bubble this year.  They are not going to lose those type of games next year and have a very talented roster.  Verdict: Way Too Low

Postgame Thoughts: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

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Another painful loss. Read below:

POSTGAME THOUGHTS: MICHIGAN VS WISCONSIN

Preview: Michigan vs. Wisconsin

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Michigan gets Wisconsin in round 2 of the B1G tourney:

PREVIEW: MICHIGAN VS WISCONSIN

How Will The Big Ten Finish?

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There are going to be a few crazy remaining weeks to decide how the Big Ten finishes.  For a full breakdown, read below:

How Will The Big Ten Finish?

Postgame Thoughts: Michigan at Wisconsin

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Michigan went down in overtime to Wisconsin earlier today.  It was a tightly played game and could have dividends toward the Big Ten title.  Read below:

Postgame Thoughts: Michigan at Wisconsin

Preview: Michigan at Wisconsin

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Michigan has a big game over the weekend on the road in Madison.  Not only does this game put Michigan's momentum and 1st place Big Ten standing on the line, but it also puts another shot at the #1 ranking on the line.  For a full preview, read below:

Preview: Michigan at Wisconsin

Q&A: Michigan at Wisconsin

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We got a chance to sit down and chat some hoops with Evan Flood (Twitter here) from Badger247 regarding Saturday's game between Michigan and Wisconsin.  He had some interesting comments:

Q&A: Michigan at Wisconsin

State of Bielema Address

Yes, I know it's been a couple weeks since the last football post. Everyone goes through attrition at some point, even us. However, this isn't about the recent changes here or myself. No, this is about the sudden upheaval that is head coaching in the Big Ten. Specifically I'm talking about the recent decision by Wisconsin's Bret Bielema to jump ship to Arkansas (Purdue had fired Danny Hope and hired former Tressel assistant Darrell Hazell but that's pittance compared to this). Keep in mind that when it comes to Bielema, he was hand picked by Barry Alvarez. He's amassed a record of 68-24 in 7 years, with going to the Rose Bowl 3 straight years. He's gone to a bowl every single year at Wisconsin, and in doing so he's maintained a good program which is difficult in any sport, much less where the team might lose 15-20 players a year. Everyone has their thoughts as to why he has chosen this new avenue---and so here are mine:

The Hypocrisy Of The Big Ten

A lot has been made of the Big Ten Championship game and its role for the conference both now and the future.  When Nebraska was originally added to the Big Ten and the conference applied for the right to host a conference championship game, it was supposed to be a positive for the conference.  Not only would it give the conference another high-profile game, but it was a great way to showcase the league's best teams in the last week before the bowl selections.

However, this concept has completely gone out the window during the past two seasons.  Everyone was aware that the conference championship game could give the Big Ten title to an undeserving team.  As much as people believe Wisconsin was the best team in the conference last season, MSU (7-1) not only had a better record than Wisconsin (6-2), but they also beat the Badgers in head-to-head play.  As much as it probably pains people to admit, MSU was probably more deserving than Wisconsin for the Big Ten title last season.  Unfortunately for the Spartans, the new conference championship game opted to award Wisconsin because they won the only game that mattered, the one in Indianapolis.

Week 3 Big Ten Update

I'm going to be starting a new recurring post on the blog updating the Big Ten on a regular basis.  Most fans are able to keep up with Michigan and maybe a couple of the other top teams like Indiana, Ohio State, and MSU, but a lot can get lost in between.  As a result, I'm going to post on a weekly basis (hopefully) to keep everyone updated on what's going on around the Big Ten.  Mainly, I'm going to address some of the main events, where the teams stand, and analyze what that means for the conference and Michigan.

I will start with the obvious, the rankings.  Not a lot changed in the most recent set of rankings.  The Big Ten currently has three teams in the Top 5, four in the Top 25, and two teams that are currently receiving votes (#26 & #27).  That is extremely impressive for one conference, especially at the top end.  So far, none of the ranked Big Ten teams has lost since the new set of rankings and only one of the teams receiving votes lost (Minnesota to Duke).  This basically means that the ranking position of the Big Ten teams will largely remain the same.  MSU and Wisconsin might be able to move up with some help, but most of the things will be the same, for now.

Compiled 2012-2013 Big Ten Predictions

Every season comes with a flurry of predictions and rankings and this year is no different.  Right now, the best conference in college basketball is the Big Ten and they have received their fair share of preseason rankings and hype.  Well, everybody wants to know the team that will reign victorious at the end of the season.  It's a difficult challenge, but I'm going to be attempting to predict the Big Ten.  I will undoubtedly be wrong by the end of the season, but here's my best guess:

 Nebraska Cornhuskers--(12th in B1G) This team is going to be horrible.  I'm sorry I have to say it, but it's going to be true.  Will they be horrible by national standards?  No, but they are going to be pummeled by the Big Ten.  The Cornhuskers finished in last place at the end of last year and they've taken significant steps backward from that team.  They not only lost their best players, but they also fired their head coach.  I wouldn't call this a trainwreck because Nebraska is still adjusting to the major challenge of Big Ten basketball, but this is not going to be a pretty year for Nebraska.

 Penn State Nittany Lions--(11th in B1G) This is a team that I think has a chance to develop into a semi decent squad in the coming years.  They are a long way from vying for a Big Ten title, but they have a few pieces to help them get back to respectability.  Point guard Tim Frazier will lead the way again and he should have another big year.  They have a few decent pieces and recruits that should help him out and I definitely like the coaching that has occurred with the Nittany Lions.  They are a team that keeps fighting until the finish and I think they might have a chance at being the Iowa of last season.  Still a doormat to most of the big teams, but they might get an upset here or there.

Michigan Ranked #5 In Preseason USA Today Poll

The first rankings of the 2012-2013 season have been released and they have been very positive for Michigan.  The Wolverines have been ranked #5 in the preseason poll, which is their highest preseason ranking since 1993.  This means that this is the highest preseason ranking for Michigan basketball since the Fab Five era.  When you're talking about an almost two decade span since this type of ranking, it's a pretty significant achievement for the team and program.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, even with this type of ranking, but as I discussed in my 2012-2013 Expectations post, there is a lot of hope when a team is ranked in the Top 5.  For instance, four of the teams ranked in the Top 5 last season made it to the Elite Eight.  Really, only one of the teams had a letdown year, but they still had a pretty good record and made it to the NCAA Tournament.  If that's the floor for success, that's a pretty good sign for a program like Michigan that's still somewhat in the building stages.

The 5 Toughest Games For 2012 - 2013

Michigan basketball is being projected for one of its best seasons in years.  Not only are expectations sky high, but there are numerous games on the schedule that will pose significant challenges.  Earlier this year, I did a breakdown on the biggest trap games on the schedule.  Those will be important, especially if the team is vying for the Big Ten title, but doing well against the toughest competition could be even more important.  Not only for success in the Big Ten season, but also for the NCAA Tournament because of the impact these games have on seeding.

When I first began to evaluate this topic, I ended up with a list of almost ten games.  Some of these included OSU, Wisconsin, MSU, NC State, and of course, Indiana.  However, I wanted to spotlight the specific games that I thought would be the most difficult to win this year.  One note to make when you look through the list is that I decided to avoid listing teams more than once.  Not only would it make this list kind of boring, but it would be extremely repetitive   If I did decided to do repeats, Indiana would appear twice and MSU would probably appear twice as well.  So, keep that in mind.

Week 5 AP/Big Ten Rankings

Week 5 AP rankings are out, and it shows that yesterday was a big one in college football. Geno Smith and West Virginia survived a shootout against Baylor, racking up over 1,500 yards between the two teams. Smith passed for almost 700 yards and 8 TDs, practically vaulting himself into the front spot of the Heisman trophy race. Louisville survived in a torrential downpour against Southern Mississippi. LSU looked to be quite mortal against the Towson Tigers in a game that the score was a lot closer than just 38-22.

Ohio State shut down Michigan State's vaunted running game, and following the loss against Ohio State, State's defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, made complaints concerning "doctored" game tape from Meyer. Northwestern improved to 5-0, while Minnesota came in undefeated and were exposed against Iowa. Purdue gave up a lot of points against Marshall while Illinois was blown out again versus Penn State, probably giving them the title of worst in the Big Ten next to Indiana. Nebraska had their biggest comeback ever against Wisconsin, setting Wisconsin back to 3-2 on the season. Here's the poll:

Week 5 Notes And Predictions

This Saturday marks the bye week for Michigan. Michigan will be the only Big Ten school on a bye this week as the rest open up the conference game schedule. College Gameday is making their stop this Saturday in East Lansing, where the Buckeyes are going to take on the Spartans at home. Obviously, that makes it the premiere Big Ten matchup of the week. That being said, don't overlook the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, which should be a close game between two teams, one on the way up in Nebraska, and the other one on the way down in Wisconsin. Both teams are currently 3-1 and looking for a signature win in conference play. Here's a taste of each game:

Week 4 Rankings--The Fall of the B1G Ten?

College football is an amazing sport. Where else can you find all these men playing a violent game on scholarships? Or even those players without free rides trying to make the team? They don't get paid for the millions of dollars of revenue they produce for their schools. They don't get paid money for merchandise that carries their name on it. Sure, the usual argument is that the scholarship alone is worth enough money for that player and the players say they can't hold jobs or have time for a job, much less order a pizza.

Yesterday showed us that even among scholarship players, blue chippers and huge programs alike....that even the mightiest can fall. It was widely joked about yesterday as to the state of the Big Ten, and rightfully so. Ohio State was sluggish against UAB and nearly completely overlooked them. It wasn't until the end of the 2nd half that the Buckeyes put some touchdowns on the board, and even then didn't score in the 3rd. The scary part is that while the Buckeyes are still undefeated, UAB came into the contest winless, and never backed down. Michigan State struggled mightily against Eastern until the 4th quarter where it appeared as though the Eagles threw in the towel on some assignments (also bad 3rd down playcalling sunk the offense) and Bell ended up having a career day with 253 rushing yards. Iowa lost to Central Michigan 32-31 with 3 seconds to go...on the leg of a non-scholarship walk-on 3rd string kicker. Kinnick Stadium won't be the same for a while. Louisiana Tech completely blew out Illinois on a turnover filled night.

Week 4 Game Notes With Reactions To Rich Rod's Michigan Comments

1. To state that Michigan needs this win over Notre Dame is an understatement, and for multiple reasons. First, Michigan needs to win to put themselves back into the top 15. Currently, there are no Big Ten teams ranked in the top 15 for the first time in 11 years, and OSU along with MSU were the last teams holding onto the distinction. Secondly, and most importantly, it would put Michigan in good position for a BCS bowl. They are obviously out of the national title picture, but the Rose Bowl/Big Ten Championship or another BCS bowl is still within their grasp. By beating Notre Dame, that'll strengthen their quality of opponent factor and push them back into the top 15, and maybe even the 11 or 12 spot. Can they move back into the top 10? Probably not after this week, but give it time and win out from here.

2. We all know by now about Shane Morris and his case of mononucleosis. One thing that wasn't touched on was the fact that if he is out for the whole season, then more than likely he will lose that coveted 5* ranking. When that happens, and it's happened before, then Michigan's recruiting rankings will go down in points as well. Even with the possibility of getting Laquon Treadwell  in Ann Arbor, I don't think Michigan will overtake USC now in terms of the number 1 spot in overall points. In the end, it's all semantics anyway.

Michigan and Big Ten Rankings Review--Week 3

The AP rankings of Week 3 are out. It was a hectic couple days of college football. USC lost to Stanford for the 4th straight year, leaving any chance of the national championship on the doorstep. That's not to say USC is a bad team; they're just not as invincible as the preseason analysts made them out to be over the summer. Florida State is looking like a powerhouse team again, reminiscent of the Seminole's teams from the 90s. Notre Dame thoroughly beat the Spartans, breaking their 14-game home winning streak. Even though the Tennessee Vols have improved, they showed they still have a long way to go in their loss against Florida. Wisconsin needed the whole game to put away Utah State, and of course Indiana lost to Ball State.

All in all it was a decent weekend for Big Ten teams, with only Indiana and Michigan State losing their respective games. Yet, Michigan blew out UMass 63-13, and still ended up dropping one spot in the polls. This is where the fallacy of the strength of schedule comes into play. Remember last week when then No. 6 FSU played Savannah St, were up 55-0 in the 3rd when lightning stopped the game? They were moved to the 5 spot after that. Up one spot after beating a team that is far behind even UMass, and they gained a spot. However, Michigan moved down a spot. Needless to say...I'm not happy. Here's the rest of the polls: