Big Ten Title Projections - Can Wolverines Afford Loss To MSU?

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

I put together a pretty lengthy post breaking down the Big Ten title race.  Read it here:

Big Ten Title Projections - Can Wolverines Afford Loss To MSU?

Post-Game Notebook: Iowa - Nik Stauskas Dominates

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Check out the postgame stuff below:

Post-Game Notebook: Iowa

Preview: Michigan vs. Iowa - Jon Horford's Time To Shine

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Check out the preview linked below:

Preview: Michigan vs. Iowa

Way Too Early Bracketology (Big Ten Style)

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

In the craziness that is college basketball, ESPN has released their first projected bracket for the 2014 NCAA Tournament.  There are plenty of flaws and valid criticisms in any of these brackets and especially on one this early.  Not all of the players have made their NBA announcements, players could be suspended or kicked off teams, 2013 recruiting is not completely finished, and there is always the concern about offseason injuries.  Despite all of these criticis
ms, I'm going to take a quick look at the bracket and specifically the Big Ten teams projected to make the tourney.

#1 Seed - MSU
The Spartans (who are likely to be the preseason Big Ten favorite) are the highest projected Big Ten team in this bracket projection.  They ended up being a #3 seed in the last NCAA Tournament and bring back everybody except Derrick Nix.  Adreian Payne has not made his NBA decision yet, but many believe he will return to East Lansing after a great season.  To me, this is a tricky projection.  On one hand, they have a ton of proven players and proven starters.  Picking against a team that returns 4 of 5 starters from a squad that nearly won the Big Ten is not typically a good idea.  However, there are some very big concerns about this team.  Of course, the first is whether Payne will return.  If he opts to go to the NBA, there is no way MSU deserves to be projected this high.  For this, I'm going to just assume he returns.  The next question is about who occupies the 5th starting spot.  They have a few other big men, but none have been that great and will be a big downgrade from Nix.  They also have a few guys like Trice that could make a push for the spot, but does Tom Izzo want to go with a smaller lineup and where does that leave MSU's bench?  They have very limited bench production and pulling one of their best bench players for a starting role is going to force guys like Harris and Appling to play some major minutes.  Essentially, they have to either bite the bullet of putting a weaker production guy into the starting lineup or have a virtually non-existent bench.  They are good enough to beat the most teams even with this problem, but against the very best?  I'm not convinced.  Verdict: Too High

#2 Seed - Michigan
The Wolverines return from their national title game appearance with some major departures in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.  However, they also bring in some highly touted recruits in point guard Derrick Walton and wing Zak Irvin.  Plus, bench players like Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht have another year under their belts to help make up for the lost production from Burke and Hardaway.  The team also returns 3 starters in Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas.  All of these players will be entering their sophomore seasons looking to improve on their game.  Plus, solid depth upfront in Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Max Bielfeldt will help.  This team has major question marks at the point and how to make up for a ton of lost production, but they certainly have all the weapons they need to recover.  Will they be as good as last season?  Probably not, but if Derrick Walton is even close to what he has been projected to be, the Wolverines should be a pretty good team.  This may be an optimistic view, but with an easier Big Ten, improved depth, more experience, and some great recruiting, this projection probably isn't too far off.  Verdict: Good Projection

#2 Seed - Ohio State
Similar to Michigan, the Buckeyes are looking to replace their best player going into next season.  They still bring back some big weapons in Aaron Craft and LaQuinton Ross, but for a team that struggled at times offensively, losing the team's best offensive player is not a good sign.  The Buckeyes are bringing in some solid wing players, but I still am not sure how this team will replace Deshaun Thomas.  Their bench was pretty weak last year and they don't seem to have the answer in their incoming recruiting class.  They're good players, but not built for Thomas' role.  The guys best lined up are Ross and Sam Thompson, but both were very inconsistent last season.  Unless one of these two guys break out, look for the Buckeyes to rely heavily on defense to feed their offense and an offense that lacks a "go to" scorer.  I underestimated Matta's abilities coming into this past season, but can they really compete with the best teams?  As much as it may bother some Michigan fans, they probably are going to end up close to this projection.  Their defense is just so good that it can carry them.  I wouldn't select them for a deep tourney run, but they certainly can earn this projection.  Verdict: Good Projection

#4 Seed - Indiana
The Hoosiers are experiencing some major offseason losses.  They lose 4 of their 5 starters and the best two players on their team.  However, they hold onto their talented point guard Yogi Ferrell and bring in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation.  They have a legitimate replacement for every major player they lost in this recruiting class and that doesn't even take into account talented bench players like Will Sheehey and freshmen like Jeremy Hollowell and Hanner Mosquera-Perea who barely played at all last season.  Whether Big Ten fans like it or not, Indiana is here to stay.  There is just too much talent in this recruiting class and off the bench for nobody to be productive.  Will they take a step back from this season?  Most likely, but they were also ranked #1 before this season.  How they're going to deal with their scholarship issues will be interesting to watch, but expect this team to be able to battle with many of the Big Ten powers, especially at home.  Verdict: Good Projection

#5 Seed - Wisconsin
Ah, the pesky Badgers.  Somehow, they stay relevant every year under Bo Ryan.  Unless the NCAA can get some of the rule changes through like shortening the shot clock, expect Wisconsin to be right in the mix of things next season.  The problem is that they are losing a ton heading into this season.  They lose Berggren, Evans, and Brusewitz.  They are going to need some younger guys to step up and play physical in the frontcourt.  All the writing on the wall says to write this team off, but I've learned my lesson on Wisconsin.  They will find a way to stay relevant and do just enough to be in contention for the Big Ten in the last few weeks of the season.  Wisconsin has finished 4th or better in the Big Ten in every year under Ryan.  That's 12 seasons.  However, their play doesn't carry that well outside of the conference where referees actually have to call the game of basketball.  Seeing this and a probable drop in conference strength, this might be a tad too high.  Verdict: Too High

#7 Seed - Iowa
The Hawkeyes were the dark horse pick for the Big Ten this season.  Unfortunately for them, they didn't really live up to the hype (if you believe darkhorse teams get hype).  They were unable to record marquee wins and ended up being relegated to the NIT Tournament where they finished as the runner-up.  In all honesty, this team should have made the tourney this season, but the selection committee decided to pick less deserving teams, but that is a different debate.  Iowa brings pretty much everything back and should be able to beat up on a lot more teams this season with more experience and with all the talent that left the Big Ten this offseason.  I think they will make the tourney, but I also think people are getting a little too carried away with this projection.  Iowa has improved, but they still aren't going to beat many top teams.  More, but not many.  Without those wins, they aren't going to become a #7 seed.  Verdict: Too High 

#11 Seed - Illinois
I was actually shocked to see the Illini put here at first.  They are the last Big Ten team projected to make the NCAA Tournament.  They had a good year under first year coach John Groce, but they lose virtually everything from their team.  They do bring in some big time recruits in the backcourt to help make up for Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, but that's still going to be a challenge.  The more I look at this team though, the more I believe they can make it back to the tourney.  Groce is a good coach and knows how to use his talent.  I actually think they may end up higher than this when all is said and done.  Losing Paul is huge, but I think the recruiting will pay off.  Verdict: Too Low  

Not Selected - Purdue
How the Boilermakers were not projected to the NCAA Tournament is beyond me.  This team brings back a ton of talent and were massively improved during the season.  They were extremely young and that's why a huge portion of their losses came early in the year.  Take away a bunch of their early losses and this team probably would have been close to the bubble this year.  They are not going to lose those type of games next year and have a very talented roster.  Verdict: Way Too Low

Week 3 Big Ten Update

I'm going to be starting a new recurring post on the blog updating the Big Ten on a regular basis.  Most fans are able to keep up with Michigan and maybe a couple of the other top teams like Indiana, Ohio State, and MSU, but a lot can get lost in between.  As a result, I'm going to post on a weekly basis (hopefully) to keep everyone updated on what's going on around the Big Ten.  Mainly, I'm going to address some of the main events, where the teams stand, and analyze what that means for the conference and Michigan.

I will start with the obvious, the rankings.  Not a lot changed in the most recent set of rankings.  The Big Ten currently has three teams in the Top 5, four in the Top 25, and two teams that are currently receiving votes (#26 & #27).  That is extremely impressive for one conference, especially at the top end.  So far, none of the ranked Big Ten teams has lost since the new set of rankings and only one of the teams receiving votes lost (Minnesota to Duke).  This basically means that the ranking position of the Big Ten teams will largely remain the same.  MSU and Wisconsin might be able to move up with some help, but most of the things will be the same, for now.

Recapping Iowa

The Seniors made their final dash under the Michigan banner on Saturday and ended their careers with a bang. And by bang, I mean a win against Iowa on a beautiful Saturday afternoon in Ann Arbor.

The buzz all week was surrounding the thought of Denard Robinson possibly not being able to play on Senior Day, but those scary thoughts were put to rest early in the game. Robinson made his first career start on Saturday and displayed the play-making ability we've had the joy of witnessing over the past three years.

Iowa never really seemed to have an answer for the combination of Devin Gardner and Denard Robinson being in at the same time. We saw something similar last season, but Gardner wasn't near the threat he is now, so it seldom worked. But this time around, teams have to give him respect. A lot of the time, it looked like the Hawkeyes could only pick their poison.

Week 12 Rankings

It's amazing what can happen during a Saturday of college football. Overall, Kansas State and Oregon both lost and paved the way for a Notre Dame-Alabama national championship game. Now, The Irish still need to beat USC, and the Trojans look very beatable after losing to UCLA and accumulating 4 losses on the season already. If USC loses again next week, they'll be 7-5 on the season in which they were the preseason No.1. Kansas State didn't have much of a chance against Baylor which is glaring since Baylor has one of the worst defenses in the country. Stanford on the other hand gave Oregon everything they could, and held the Ducks offense to a scoring low for the season. In the end, I don't think there was a single person who really thought the Irish would be in the place that they are now, and I was one of them. Week after week they've knocked down their opponents, and for those who think their strength of schedule is weak, look up Oregon's, Kansas State's, and Alabama's--all of which are weaker than Notre Dame's.
On the other hand, we have Michigan. Yet again Brady Hoke and Al Borges surprise the fans by having Denard Robinson line up in the backfield, and even catch a few passes. It's that kind of offense some have been asking for a long time, and we finally saw it. It was also a sad day for Fitz Toussaint who left the game in the first quarter with an apparent broken left leg. Now, the chances of Michigan surpassing Nebraska for the Legends Division have dwindled down to almost nothing since the Huskers easily beat Minnesota and they have only one game left against Iowa. Iowa would need to win, and Michigan would need to beat an undefeated Ohio State team. Speaking of the Buckeyes, if it wasn't for a costly fumble by Montee Ball at the goal line in the 4th quarter, the Buckeyes might not be undefeated.  Michigan State lost to Northwestern despite outgaining them in every important category, except for the one that doomed them: turnovers. Now the Spartans will need to beat Minnesota just in order to become bowl eligible..all this after a season in which they did not win a Big Ten game at home. Either way. here's a look at the vastly different BCS poll:

Week 12 Predictions and Notes

Week 12, last home game of the season, last home game for the seniors at Michigan. Denard Robinson's status is still up in the air but chances are Shoelace will be not be playing for the third consecutive game. Brady Hoke has been non-committal about his status ever since he was initially injured, but it's obvious to the rest of us that the injury to his elbow is more than just a boo boo. Robinson has meant a lot to Michigan fans and even when his passing skills were circumspect for a game, or whether he was being made fun of nationally--we always stood behind him. There was a bit on the Stoney and Bill show (on 97.1 The Ticket) in which Hoke was asked as to whether Robinson would be in for a "symbolic" play. I don't agree with that, but there are other ways for him to get on the field--as a halfback, returner, or a receiver. None of those options would require him to grip the ball with his throwing hand. Either way, good luck to Robinson, Roundtree, Barnum, Demens, and the rest of the seniors on their last home game at the Big House. Onto my weekly predictions:

Iowa Player Watch

Two games left to go, and both games are a must-win for Michigan if they have any hopes of catching Nebraska in the Legends Division. Saturday will be Senior Day at the Big House...the last home game for all the seniors, and they need to go out with a win, no matter who the quarterback is.  We all know Ohio State is the last opponent, and rightfully so, but Michigan cannot overlook Iowa, which Michigan leads the series 40-13-4. Last season the Wolverines lost to Iowa at Kinnick Stadium 24-16. That loss derailed the hopes and dreams of all Michigan fans in Brady Hoke's first season, and yet they still went on to finish 11-2, but without a Big Ten title. Michigan has also lost 3 in a row to Iowa--another streak I foresee coming to an end on Saturday, and another bonus for the seniors since they have yet to beat the Hawkeyes.  The game on this coming Saturday will tell a different tale--a tale of two different teams heading in two different directions. The Hawkeyes are 4-6 (2-4 Big Ten), and have no identity in which to speak of. The quarterback play has been erratic at best, and the running game has slowed down considerably. Defensively Iowa isn't any better---they're ranked in the 50s nationwide in both pass and run defense. Yes, they've won 2 Big Ten conference games but when you look closer, they've lost their past 4 games. Let's figure out what's going on:

Compiled 2012-2013 Big Ten Predictions

Every season comes with a flurry of predictions and rankings and this year is no different.  Right now, the best conference in college basketball is the Big Ten and they have received their fair share of preseason rankings and hype.  Well, everybody wants to know the team that will reign victorious at the end of the season.  It's a difficult challenge, but I'm going to be attempting to predict the Big Ten.  I will undoubtedly be wrong by the end of the season, but here's my best guess:

 Nebraska Cornhuskers--(12th in B1G) This team is going to be horrible.  I'm sorry I have to say it, but it's going to be true.  Will they be horrible by national standards?  No, but they are going to be pummeled by the Big Ten.  The Cornhuskers finished in last place at the end of last year and they've taken significant steps backward from that team.  They not only lost their best players, but they also fired their head coach.  I wouldn't call this a trainwreck because Nebraska is still adjusting to the major challenge of Big Ten basketball, but this is not going to be a pretty year for Nebraska.

 Penn State Nittany Lions--(11th in B1G) This is a team that I think has a chance to develop into a semi decent squad in the coming years.  They are a long way from vying for a Big Ten title, but they have a few pieces to help them get back to respectability.  Point guard Tim Frazier will lead the way again and he should have another big year.  They have a few decent pieces and recruits that should help him out and I definitely like the coaching that has occurred with the Nittany Lions.  They are a team that keeps fighting until the finish and I think they might have a chance at being the Iowa of last season.  Still a doormat to most of the big teams, but they might get an upset here or there.

Week 5 AP/Big Ten Rankings

Week 5 AP rankings are out, and it shows that yesterday was a big one in college football. Geno Smith and West Virginia survived a shootout against Baylor, racking up over 1,500 yards between the two teams. Smith passed for almost 700 yards and 8 TDs, practically vaulting himself into the front spot of the Heisman trophy race. Louisville survived in a torrential downpour against Southern Mississippi. LSU looked to be quite mortal against the Towson Tigers in a game that the score was a lot closer than just 38-22.

Ohio State shut down Michigan State's vaunted running game, and following the loss against Ohio State, State's defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, made complaints concerning "doctored" game tape from Meyer. Northwestern improved to 5-0, while Minnesota came in undefeated and were exposed against Iowa. Purdue gave up a lot of points against Marshall while Illinois was blown out again versus Penn State, probably giving them the title of worst in the Big Ten next to Indiana. Nebraska had their biggest comeback ever against Wisconsin, setting Wisconsin back to 3-2 on the season. Here's the poll:

Week 5 Notes And Predictions

This Saturday marks the bye week for Michigan. Michigan will be the only Big Ten school on a bye this week as the rest open up the conference game schedule. College Gameday is making their stop this Saturday in East Lansing, where the Buckeyes are going to take on the Spartans at home. Obviously, that makes it the premiere Big Ten matchup of the week. That being said, don't overlook the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, which should be a close game between two teams, one on the way up in Nebraska, and the other one on the way down in Wisconsin. Both teams are currently 3-1 and looking for a signature win in conference play. Here's a taste of each game:

Does Loss to ND Hurt Recruiting?

So coming off of the horrible loss to Notre Dame last night, I figured I'd share my opinion on whether or not I think the game hurt us in recruiting.  Right off the bat, I'm going to have to say no and I'll state my reasons why.  There were lots of recruits at the game with interest in both teams such as Damon Webb, a 2014 DB/WR out of Detroit Cass Tech.  However, most of the responses that we heard were in regards to recruits believing that could have an earlier impact at Michigan, which is definitely not a negative sign.

It was a great atmosphere, but a guy like Webb has visited Michigan the last two weeks for needless to say not very big games.  Michigan hasn't had a big game atmosphere at home yet and I believe that come October 20th when the Spartans come to town, it could be huge.  A vast majority of the 2013 commits have scheduled their official visits for this game along with big time 2013 target RB Derrick Green.  Michigan is  2-2 right now, which isn't the start that we had all hoped for, but let's face it, we did lose to Alabama who is I think far and above the best team in college football.  We gave away the game to the #11 team in the country so it's not like we have been upset in any means.

Week 4 Rankings--The Fall of the B1G Ten?

College football is an amazing sport. Where else can you find all these men playing a violent game on scholarships? Or even those players without free rides trying to make the team? They don't get paid for the millions of dollars of revenue they produce for their schools. They don't get paid money for merchandise that carries their name on it. Sure, the usual argument is that the scholarship alone is worth enough money for that player and the players say they can't hold jobs or have time for a job, much less order a pizza.

Yesterday showed us that even among scholarship players, blue chippers and huge programs alike....that even the mightiest can fall. It was widely joked about yesterday as to the state of the Big Ten, and rightfully so. Ohio State was sluggish against UAB and nearly completely overlooked them. It wasn't until the end of the 2nd half that the Buckeyes put some touchdowns on the board, and even then didn't score in the 3rd. The scary part is that while the Buckeyes are still undefeated, UAB came into the contest winless, and never backed down. Michigan State struggled mightily against Eastern until the 4th quarter where it appeared as though the Eagles threw in the towel on some assignments (also bad 3rd down playcalling sunk the offense) and Bell ended up having a career day with 253 rushing yards. Iowa lost to Central Michigan 32-31 with 3 seconds to go...on the leg of a non-scholarship walk-on 3rd string kicker. Kinnick Stadium won't be the same for a while. Louisiana Tech completely blew out Illinois on a turnover filled night.

Week 4 Game Notes With Reactions To Rich Rod's Michigan Comments

1. To state that Michigan needs this win over Notre Dame is an understatement, and for multiple reasons. First, Michigan needs to win to put themselves back into the top 15. Currently, there are no Big Ten teams ranked in the top 15 for the first time in 11 years, and OSU along with MSU were the last teams holding onto the distinction. Secondly, and most importantly, it would put Michigan in good position for a BCS bowl. They are obviously out of the national title picture, but the Rose Bowl/Big Ten Championship or another BCS bowl is still within their grasp. By beating Notre Dame, that'll strengthen their quality of opponent factor and push them back into the top 15, and maybe even the 11 or 12 spot. Can they move back into the top 10? Probably not after this week, but give it time and win out from here.

2. We all know by now about Shane Morris and his case of mononucleosis. One thing that wasn't touched on was the fact that if he is out for the whole season, then more than likely he will lose that coveted 5* ranking. When that happens, and it's happened before, then Michigan's recruiting rankings will go down in points as well. Even with the possibility of getting Laquon Treadwell  in Ann Arbor, I don't think Michigan will overtake USC now in terms of the number 1 spot in overall points. In the end, it's all semantics anyway.

Breaking Down Michigan's 2012 Big Ten Schedule

Every season has its twists and turns.  Whether its new players, coaches, or stadiums, there are always some interesting changes.  One thing that typically stays the same, however, is conference play.  Yes, there are always some variations, such as location and timing, but for the most part, the teams on the slate are pretty similar, if not identical on a yearly basis.  With the Big Ten's new format, things have become even more interesting.  Not just because there are now more teams competing for the conference championship, but also because of the new division layout and more complex scheduling.

The reason the division layout and scheduling have become so important is because of the way the Big Ten has divided the teams.  This may seem obvious, but it's important to note how this process has occurred and the impact of the change.  Since the Big Ten has attempted to divide the conference based on long-term winning percentage, it has effectively separated the good and the bad teams.  On average, there should be two really good teams, two average teams, and two bad teams in each division.  In the long run, this will probably be true, but that's not always how it works out, especially when we're analyzing just one year.

Previewing Big Ten Football: Iowa

Despite being the longest tenured coach in the Big Ten, Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes have been taking some steps backward over the last couple of years.  They went 11-2 in 2009 and won the Orange Bowl, but have went 8-8 in Big Ten play in the last two seasons and went down to 7 wins in 2011.  I don't think anybody expects Iowa to continue this trend and become a Big Ten bottom dweller, but it does signal Iowa's removal from Big Ten Championship contention.  They will be looking to return to that form in 2012, but it will be a challenge.

If Iowa has one thing to lean on in 2012, it's their senior quarterback James Vandenberg.  While he's not quite one of the Big Ten's elite quarterbacks yet (he wasn't even in honorable All-Big Ten last year), he is quite formidable.  He threw for over 3000 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions last year.  For a team that has traditionally relied on defense under Ferentz, those are some pretty good numbers.

Living Up To Expectations

In the world of sports, the toughest part of putting together an incredible season is coming back the next year to back it up with everyone expecting the same results. The world of Wolverine fans will be expecting nothing less than a BCS bowl win this season, plain and simple.

But before expectations can be met, expectations have to be established. For example, how many Michigan fans would say their number one goal for this season is a Big Ten Championship? That is exactly what Brady Hoke is saying, though. He has made it very clear from day one that his teams will strive for Big Ten Championship trophies before focusing on anything that comes after that, like a National Championship. Some reporters at Hoke's first press conference had a very hard time understanding that logic, so it is very easy to see where fan and coach expectations are colliding.

2012 Early Big Ten Predictions

Read any sports mag, or sports site online and they always have mock rankings, drafts, etc...Well people--here is my first attempt at doing the same. Below you will find a 2012 version of how I believe our B1G Ten teams will finish, both conference wise and overall. Keep in mind I reserve all rights to my opinion, and the views expressed are mine and nobody else's. I will be doing a more in-depth analysis into each team every week from now till the beginning of the season. So let me give you a brief synopsis into the season.

Legends Division

Iowa Hawkeyes--(4-4 Big Ten, 8-4 overall) Kirk Ferentz always has his team ready to play every season. James Vandenburg has the potential to be a good QB, but the Legends Division seems to be pretty strong this year. Wins--NIU, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, CMU, Minn, MSU, PSU, Indiana.  Losses--Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan, Nebraska

Previewing Big Ten Basketball: Iowa

Over the past few weeks, we have went through Big Ten bottom-dwellers Penn State and Nebraska, a reborn Illinois, and preseason Top 25 pick Minnesota.  This brings us to Iowa.  The Hawkeyes had brief moments that left many excited during last season, but for the most part, they just could never compete with the top teams on a consistent basis.  I had high hopes for Iowa last season because of their youth and depth, but they just never seemed to turn the corner from decent to good.

Iowa entered Big Ten play with a 8-5 non-conference record, but they had a pretty tough schedule so many didn't think this was an accurate description of their team.  However, they ended up with an 8-10 record for the Big Ten despite playing very well at home and against some elite teams.  It's amazing to think that a team that finished with a losing record in conference play finished the year with two wins over Wisconsin, a win over Michigan, and a win over Indiana.  That's wins over four ranked teams.