Way Too Early Bracketology (Big Ten Style)

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

In the craziness that is college basketball, ESPN has released their first projected bracket for the 2014 NCAA Tournament.  There are plenty of flaws and valid criticisms in any of these brackets and especially on one this early.  Not all of the players have made their NBA announcements, players could be suspended or kicked off teams, 2013 recruiting is not completely finished, and there is always the concern about offseason injuries.  Despite all of these criticis
ms, I'm going to take a quick look at the bracket and specifically the Big Ten teams projected to make the tourney.

#1 Seed - MSU
The Spartans (who are likely to be the preseason Big Ten favorite) are the highest projected Big Ten team in this bracket projection.  They ended up being a #3 seed in the last NCAA Tournament and bring back everybody except Derrick Nix.  Adreian Payne has not made his NBA decision yet, but many believe he will return to East Lansing after a great season.  To me, this is a tricky projection.  On one hand, they have a ton of proven players and proven starters.  Picking against a team that returns 4 of 5 starters from a squad that nearly won the Big Ten is not typically a good idea.  However, there are some very big concerns about this team.  Of course, the first is whether Payne will return.  If he opts to go to the NBA, there is no way MSU deserves to be projected this high.  For this, I'm going to just assume he returns.  The next question is about who occupies the 5th starting spot.  They have a few other big men, but none have been that great and will be a big downgrade from Nix.  They also have a few guys like Trice that could make a push for the spot, but does Tom Izzo want to go with a smaller lineup and where does that leave MSU's bench?  They have very limited bench production and pulling one of their best bench players for a starting role is going to force guys like Harris and Appling to play some major minutes.  Essentially, they have to either bite the bullet of putting a weaker production guy into the starting lineup or have a virtually non-existent bench.  They are good enough to beat the most teams even with this problem, but against the very best?  I'm not convinced.  Verdict: Too High

#2 Seed - Michigan
The Wolverines return from their national title game appearance with some major departures in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.  However, they also bring in some highly touted recruits in point guard Derrick Walton and wing Zak Irvin.  Plus, bench players like Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht have another year under their belts to help make up for the lost production from Burke and Hardaway.  The team also returns 3 starters in Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson III, and Nik Stauskas.  All of these players will be entering their sophomore seasons looking to improve on their game.  Plus, solid depth upfront in Jordan Morgan, Jon Horford, and Max Bielfeldt will help.  This team has major question marks at the point and how to make up for a ton of lost production, but they certainly have all the weapons they need to recover.  Will they be as good as last season?  Probably not, but if Derrick Walton is even close to what he has been projected to be, the Wolverines should be a pretty good team.  This may be an optimistic view, but with an easier Big Ten, improved depth, more experience, and some great recruiting, this projection probably isn't too far off.  Verdict: Good Projection

#2 Seed - Ohio State
Similar to Michigan, the Buckeyes are looking to replace their best player going into next season.  They still bring back some big weapons in Aaron Craft and LaQuinton Ross, but for a team that struggled at times offensively, losing the team's best offensive player is not a good sign.  The Buckeyes are bringing in some solid wing players, but I still am not sure how this team will replace Deshaun Thomas.  Their bench was pretty weak last year and they don't seem to have the answer in their incoming recruiting class.  They're good players, but not built for Thomas' role.  The guys best lined up are Ross and Sam Thompson, but both were very inconsistent last season.  Unless one of these two guys break out, look for the Buckeyes to rely heavily on defense to feed their offense and an offense that lacks a "go to" scorer.  I underestimated Matta's abilities coming into this past season, but can they really compete with the best teams?  As much as it may bother some Michigan fans, they probably are going to end up close to this projection.  Their defense is just so good that it can carry them.  I wouldn't select them for a deep tourney run, but they certainly can earn this projection.  Verdict: Good Projection

#4 Seed - Indiana
The Hoosiers are experiencing some major offseason losses.  They lose 4 of their 5 starters and the best two players on their team.  However, they hold onto their talented point guard Yogi Ferrell and bring in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation.  They have a legitimate replacement for every major player they lost in this recruiting class and that doesn't even take into account talented bench players like Will Sheehey and freshmen like Jeremy Hollowell and Hanner Mosquera-Perea who barely played at all last season.  Whether Big Ten fans like it or not, Indiana is here to stay.  There is just too much talent in this recruiting class and off the bench for nobody to be productive.  Will they take a step back from this season?  Most likely, but they were also ranked #1 before this season.  How they're going to deal with their scholarship issues will be interesting to watch, but expect this team to be able to battle with many of the Big Ten powers, especially at home.  Verdict: Good Projection

#5 Seed - Wisconsin
Ah, the pesky Badgers.  Somehow, they stay relevant every year under Bo Ryan.  Unless the NCAA can get some of the rule changes through like shortening the shot clock, expect Wisconsin to be right in the mix of things next season.  The problem is that they are losing a ton heading into this season.  They lose Berggren, Evans, and Brusewitz.  They are going to need some younger guys to step up and play physical in the frontcourt.  All the writing on the wall says to write this team off, but I've learned my lesson on Wisconsin.  They will find a way to stay relevant and do just enough to be in contention for the Big Ten in the last few weeks of the season.  Wisconsin has finished 4th or better in the Big Ten in every year under Ryan.  That's 12 seasons.  However, their play doesn't carry that well outside of the conference where referees actually have to call the game of basketball.  Seeing this and a probable drop in conference strength, this might be a tad too high.  Verdict: Too High

#7 Seed - Iowa
The Hawkeyes were the dark horse pick for the Big Ten this season.  Unfortunately for them, they didn't really live up to the hype (if you believe darkhorse teams get hype).  They were unable to record marquee wins and ended up being relegated to the NIT Tournament where they finished as the runner-up.  In all honesty, this team should have made the tourney this season, but the selection committee decided to pick less deserving teams, but that is a different debate.  Iowa brings pretty much everything back and should be able to beat up on a lot more teams this season with more experience and with all the talent that left the Big Ten this offseason.  I think they will make the tourney, but I also think people are getting a little too carried away with this projection.  Iowa has improved, but they still aren't going to beat many top teams.  More, but not many.  Without those wins, they aren't going to become a #7 seed.  Verdict: Too High 

#11 Seed - Illinois
I was actually shocked to see the Illini put here at first.  They are the last Big Ten team projected to make the NCAA Tournament.  They had a good year under first year coach John Groce, but they lose virtually everything from their team.  They do bring in some big time recruits in the backcourt to help make up for Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson, but that's still going to be a challenge.  The more I look at this team though, the more I believe they can make it back to the tourney.  Groce is a good coach and knows how to use his talent.  I actually think they may end up higher than this when all is said and done.  Losing Paul is huge, but I think the recruiting will pay off.  Verdict: Too Low  

Not Selected - Purdue
How the Boilermakers were not projected to the NCAA Tournament is beyond me.  This team brings back a ton of talent and were massively improved during the season.  They were extremely young and that's why a huge portion of their losses came early in the year.  Take away a bunch of their early losses and this team probably would have been close to the bubble this year.  They are not going to lose those type of games next year and have a very talented roster.  Verdict: Way Too Low

Michigan 71 - Illinois 58

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

The Wolverines got a much needed win on Sunday over a tricky Illini team:

Michigan 71 - Illinois 58

Preview: Illinois at Michigan

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

The Wolverines look for a good performance today to get back on track toward their Big Ten titles hopes:

Preview: Illinois at Michigan

Postgame Thoughts: Michigan at Illinois

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

As tweeted out yesterday, Kyle Curtiss and Tyler Desy (both HMM writers) have decided to move to The M Block, a site primarily dedicated to Michigan football and football recruiting.  We wish them the best of luck and I'm sure they will do well.  However, this has put control of Hoke's Mad Magicians back into my hands.  I originally created the blog in the fall of 2011 with the goal of providing great free coverage of the Michigan football and basketball programs.  I did this for over a year when I was offered a spot on Tremendous and seized the opportunity.  After Steve Lorenz (creator of Tremendous) moved to 247Sports, he graciously decided to bring me along.  I have been writing there for most of the last month and I have enjoyed it so far.

So for the time being, Hoke's Mad Magicians will be my own "personal" blog of sorts.  I primarily cover basketball over on Wolverine247 and will be linking all relevant articles to my material over at that site.  There will be no new content posted here (at least for the time being), but great content will be linked here.  So if you're still interested in reading about Michigan athletics, feel free to keep following Hoke's Mad Magicians.

With that, here's my breakdown of Michigan's recent game against Illinois that was able to move the Wolverines up to #1 in the AP Poll for the first time since 1992:

Postgame Thoughts: Michigan at Illinois

Week 3 Big Ten Update

I'm going to be starting a new recurring post on the blog updating the Big Ten on a regular basis.  Most fans are able to keep up with Michigan and maybe a couple of the other top teams like Indiana, Ohio State, and MSU, but a lot can get lost in between.  As a result, I'm going to post on a weekly basis (hopefully) to keep everyone updated on what's going on around the Big Ten.  Mainly, I'm going to address some of the main events, where the teams stand, and analyze what that means for the conference and Michigan.

I will start with the obvious, the rankings.  Not a lot changed in the most recent set of rankings.  The Big Ten currently has three teams in the Top 5, four in the Top 25, and two teams that are currently receiving votes (#26 & #27).  That is extremely impressive for one conference, especially at the top end.  So far, none of the ranked Big Ten teams has lost since the new set of rankings and only one of the teams receiving votes lost (Minnesota to Duke).  This basically means that the ranking position of the Big Ten teams will largely remain the same.  MSU and Wisconsin might be able to move up with some help, but most of the things will be the same, for now.

Compiled 2012-2013 Big Ten Predictions

Every season comes with a flurry of predictions and rankings and this year is no different.  Right now, the best conference in college basketball is the Big Ten and they have received their fair share of preseason rankings and hype.  Well, everybody wants to know the team that will reign victorious at the end of the season.  It's a difficult challenge, but I'm going to be attempting to predict the Big Ten.  I will undoubtedly be wrong by the end of the season, but here's my best guess:

 Nebraska Cornhuskers--(12th in B1G) This team is going to be horrible.  I'm sorry I have to say it, but it's going to be true.  Will they be horrible by national standards?  No, but they are going to be pummeled by the Big Ten.  The Cornhuskers finished in last place at the end of last year and they've taken significant steps backward from that team.  They not only lost their best players, but they also fired their head coach.  I wouldn't call this a trainwreck because Nebraska is still adjusting to the major challenge of Big Ten basketball, but this is not going to be a pretty year for Nebraska.

 Penn State Nittany Lions--(11th in B1G) This is a team that I think has a chance to develop into a semi decent squad in the coming years.  They are a long way from vying for a Big Ten title, but they have a few pieces to help them get back to respectability.  Point guard Tim Frazier will lead the way again and he should have another big year.  They have a few decent pieces and recruits that should help him out and I definitely like the coaching that has occurred with the Nittany Lions.  They are a team that keeps fighting until the finish and I think they might have a chance at being the Iowa of last season.  Still a doormat to most of the big teams, but they might get an upset here or there.

Recap: Illinois

For the second straight week, Michigan has blown their Big Ten opponent out of the water and made it look rather easy. Last week was the Boilermakers; this week was the Illini. It was just a different chapter in the same book.

The first thing I really noticed on Saturday was Michigan's run by committee style of rushing attack. It actually seemed to be working for the Wolverines. And, although it is not what Al Borges dreams of when he sleeps at night, you have to go with what is working.

Even Fitz Toussaint, a non factor in most games this season, made some noise from the backfield and definitely looked more crisp against Illinois. I thought he was doing too much dancing around previously, but I did not see a whole lot of that on Saturday.

Week 7 Notes and Predictions

On Thursday night I had the privilege of viewing "Black and Blue", the documentary about Gerald Ford, Willis Ward, and the 1934 Michigan-Georgia Tech football game. After watching the program, I came away with an altered view on Michigan's football history. I won't go into the details here because I believe this is one that is a must see for all Michigan fans alike but I do enjoy hearing about the history of Michigan football, and this is a chapter that has been forgotten over time and shrouded in gray. There will be another showing of it on November 18th at the Brighton District Library, and DVD copies will also be on sale for 20 dollars. Due to the efforts by a 2nd grader in Brighton, October 20th will be Willis Ward Day...so look for information regarding that come next week when Michigan will be hosting Michigan State. On a final note, considering this Saturday will be homecoming, and also the game honoring the late President Gerald Ford in the Legends Patch ceremony, that makes the game a watershed moment. Not only does the timing of the documentary work well with it, but there's rumors of Willis Ward being mentioned as well. I plan on attending the game, not only to see our beloved Wolverines kick Illini butt, but to soak in the history of Ford, Ward, and the story behind it all.

Preview And Prediction: Illinois

The Wolverines got off to a great start in conference play last week with a convincing win over a surging Purdue team that had put up 50+ points in each of its last 2 home games. Denard Robinson got himself back on track. The offensive and defensive lines did an outstanding job. The linebackers produced. The secondary was next to shut-down. It was a great Michigan day.

Now our boys stay at home for Week 7 against the Fighting Illini of Illinois, a team that has under performed this year to say the least.

Here are my top keys for each team heading into Saturday's action.

Michigan

Everything seemed to be clicking last week for the Wolverines, and it would speak great volumes of the progress made if they could continue that for a second consecutive week.

1. Pressure Nathan Scheelhaase

Don't get me wrong; Nathan Scheelhaase has the capability of doing some great things for the Illini offense, but he hasn't been able to turn it on this year. Coming into this game, the Junior quarterback has only thrown 3 TDs, compared to 5 INTs. Not the kind of ratio you're looking for in a Big Ten quarterback.
In years past, what Scheelhaase was unable to do through the air, he could up for on the ground with his legs. That hasn't been the case so much this year. So far this season, he is yet to break 100 yards rushing, and we are talking about a quarterback who has averaged 746 yards on the ground over the past 2 seasons.

Illinois Players To Watch

Week 7 is upon us, and so is homecoming for Michigan football. During the pageantry of this week don't let us forget there is a game coming up against Illinois. It'll be the 94th meeting between the two teams, with Michigan carrying a 68-23-2 record in the series. Coming into the game, No. 25 Michigan is favored to win by more than three touchdowns, but don't let that fool you. Illinois can be just as dangerous as any other team out there. So far this season, even with a 2-4 record (winless in the Big Ten), the Illini have the 7th ranked pass defense in the FBS. On the other hand, they also rank 97th in passing offense, which falls squarely on the shoulders of the quarterback, and they've lost their last 4 games. That being said, monitor these players:

Week 6 Big Ten/AP Rankings

Yesterday was a day of upsets, beatdowns, and quirkiness. Florida State, LSU, and Georgia all lost. Michigan is back into the Top 25 after a dominating performance by Denard Robinson over Purdue. Nebraska has fallen out of the poll for the second time this year after a humiliating, blowout loss to Ohio State . Northwestern took a huge fall after losing to Penn State, showing us that their 5-0 record was really just hype.

A few things stood out to me for the Big Ten games yesterday--1. Never count Denard out. Yes, he had a poor performance against Notre Dame  . Yet, after a bye week and knowing he had to take control, he did. Breaking the rushing record for a Big Ten QB was great, but winning  Michigan's first Big Ten game, and doing it on the road was even greater. 2. I think most people are aware that Ohio State is still undefeated, and is still not going to the postseason. The Buckeyes seem to be using this season as a statement, and it's a loud one by Urban Meyer. 3. Michigan State's win over Indiana could be construed as 2 things--they're not as good as anyone thought or, 2. Indiana is getting better. I'm tending to lean more towards the former point. Now onto the poll:

Week 5 AP/Big Ten Rankings

Week 5 AP rankings are out, and it shows that yesterday was a big one in college football. Geno Smith and West Virginia survived a shootout against Baylor, racking up over 1,500 yards between the two teams. Smith passed for almost 700 yards and 8 TDs, practically vaulting himself into the front spot of the Heisman trophy race. Louisville survived in a torrential downpour against Southern Mississippi. LSU looked to be quite mortal against the Towson Tigers in a game that the score was a lot closer than just 38-22.

Ohio State shut down Michigan State's vaunted running game, and following the loss against Ohio State, State's defensive coordinator, Pat Narduzzi, made complaints concerning "doctored" game tape from Meyer. Northwestern improved to 5-0, while Minnesota came in undefeated and were exposed against Iowa. Purdue gave up a lot of points against Marshall while Illinois was blown out again versus Penn State, probably giving them the title of worst in the Big Ten next to Indiana. Nebraska had their biggest comeback ever against Wisconsin, setting Wisconsin back to 3-2 on the season. Here's the poll:

Week 5 Notes And Predictions

This Saturday marks the bye week for Michigan. Michigan will be the only Big Ten school on a bye this week as the rest open up the conference game schedule. College Gameday is making their stop this Saturday in East Lansing, where the Buckeyes are going to take on the Spartans at home. Obviously, that makes it the premiere Big Ten matchup of the week. That being said, don't overlook the Wisconsin-Nebraska game, which should be a close game between two teams, one on the way up in Nebraska, and the other one on the way down in Wisconsin. Both teams are currently 3-1 and looking for a signature win in conference play. Here's a taste of each game:

Profiling 2013 Prospect Demetrius Jackson

To most, Michigan basketball's recruiting in 2013 is all wrapped up.  However, there are a handful of key prospects that could massively impact Michigan's recruiting both now and in the future.  On our basketball recruiting page, I have three primary targets listed, but this does not mean that I believe that they will end up in Ann Arbor.  For instance, the recruit I am profiling in this article, Demetrius Jackson, has a very slim chance of ending up at Michigan.  Despite this, he is still a recruit that could impact Michigan's 2013 class and will surely impact some of Michigan's key opponents regardless of his decision.

Jackson is one of the best players in the 2013 recruiting class.  Not just at his position, point guard, but for all basketball players in the class.  He's so effective for one main reason, his amazing athleticism, which can be clearly seen in his tape.  He has tremendous speed and is practically unstoppable when he drives the basket.  Along with this, he has great ball handling skills, solid defense, and is a pretty good rebounder considering he's just 6'1".  The one area that he could improve on, as referenced by both Future150 and ESPN, is his shooting.  He's a fantastic point guard, but if he could truly threaten from the perimeter, he could be extremely effective.  I don't think he needs to add size because it would probably impact his speed, which is his major asset.  His athleticism, court vision, and passing abilities will carry him, but he can be elite at the college level with an improved jump shot, particularly from outside the arch.

Week 4 Rankings--The Fall of the B1G Ten?

College football is an amazing sport. Where else can you find all these men playing a violent game on scholarships? Or even those players without free rides trying to make the team? They don't get paid for the millions of dollars of revenue they produce for their schools. They don't get paid money for merchandise that carries their name on it. Sure, the usual argument is that the scholarship alone is worth enough money for that player and the players say they can't hold jobs or have time for a job, much less order a pizza.

Yesterday showed us that even among scholarship players, blue chippers and huge programs alike....that even the mightiest can fall. It was widely joked about yesterday as to the state of the Big Ten, and rightfully so. Ohio State was sluggish against UAB and nearly completely overlooked them. It wasn't until the end of the 2nd half that the Buckeyes put some touchdowns on the board, and even then didn't score in the 3rd. The scary part is that while the Buckeyes are still undefeated, UAB came into the contest winless, and never backed down. Michigan State struggled mightily against Eastern until the 4th quarter where it appeared as though the Eagles threw in the towel on some assignments (also bad 3rd down playcalling sunk the offense) and Bell ended up having a career day with 253 rushing yards. Iowa lost to Central Michigan 32-31 with 3 seconds to go...on the leg of a non-scholarship walk-on 3rd string kicker. Kinnick Stadium won't be the same for a while. Louisiana Tech completely blew out Illinois on a turnover filled night.

Week 4 Game Notes With Reactions To Rich Rod's Michigan Comments

1. To state that Michigan needs this win over Notre Dame is an understatement, and for multiple reasons. First, Michigan needs to win to put themselves back into the top 15. Currently, there are no Big Ten teams ranked in the top 15 for the first time in 11 years, and OSU along with MSU were the last teams holding onto the distinction. Secondly, and most importantly, it would put Michigan in good position for a BCS bowl. They are obviously out of the national title picture, but the Rose Bowl/Big Ten Championship or another BCS bowl is still within their grasp. By beating Notre Dame, that'll strengthen their quality of opponent factor and push them back into the top 15, and maybe even the 11 or 12 spot. Can they move back into the top 10? Probably not after this week, but give it time and win out from here.

2. We all know by now about Shane Morris and his case of mononucleosis. One thing that wasn't touched on was the fact that if he is out for the whole season, then more than likely he will lose that coveted 5* ranking. When that happens, and it's happened before, then Michigan's recruiting rankings will go down in points as well. Even with the possibility of getting Laquon Treadwell  in Ann Arbor, I don't think Michigan will overtake USC now in terms of the number 1 spot in overall points. In the end, it's all semantics anyway.

Breaking Down Michigan's 2012 Big Ten Schedule

Every season has its twists and turns.  Whether its new players, coaches, or stadiums, there are always some interesting changes.  One thing that typically stays the same, however, is conference play.  Yes, there are always some variations, such as location and timing, but for the most part, the teams on the slate are pretty similar, if not identical on a yearly basis.  With the Big Ten's new format, things have become even more interesting.  Not just because there are now more teams competing for the conference championship, but also because of the new division layout and more complex scheduling.

The reason the division layout and scheduling have become so important is because of the way the Big Ten has divided the teams.  This may seem obvious, but it's important to note how this process has occurred and the impact of the change.  Since the Big Ten has attempted to divide the conference based on long-term winning percentage, it has effectively separated the good and the bad teams.  On average, there should be two really good teams, two average teams, and two bad teams in each division.  In the long run, this will probably be true, but that's not always how it works out, especially when we're analyzing just one year.

Previewing Big Ten Football: Illinois

I've already wrote about Indiana football, and I believe Illinois will be just a step above them, but not by much. Surprisingly, last season was a disappointing one for the Illini. Much like their basketball brethren, they had a good start last season, followed by a collapse that led to the firing of Ron Zook. 


2011 Illinois Stats:

2011 Record: 7-6 (2-6)
Postseason: Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl - W 20-14
Head Coach: Tim Beckman (1st year at Illinois, 21-16 career record)
Returning Starters: 17 ( 7 offense, 8 defense, 2 special teams)


Let's begin with coaching. Tim Beckman is starting his 1st year as head coach of the Illini. He spent 3 years as head coach of the Toledo Rockets, where he went 21-16 and his biggest win was over Michigan, the only MAC school that can say that. Prior to his stint with the Toledo Rockets, Beckman was the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State University–Stillwater. After two seasons there, in which the Cowboys posted a record of 16-10. Before joining the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Beckman coached at Ohio State under Jim Tressel and at Bowling Green.

Hot Topics: Who Is Michigan's 3rd Biggest Basketball Rival?

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2012 Early Big Ten Predictions

Read any sports mag, or sports site online and they always have mock rankings, drafts, etc...Well people--here is my first attempt at doing the same. Below you will find a 2012 version of how I believe our B1G Ten teams will finish, both conference wise and overall. Keep in mind I reserve all rights to my opinion, and the views expressed are mine and nobody else's. I will be doing a more in-depth analysis into each team every week from now till the beginning of the season. So let me give you a brief synopsis into the season.

Legends Division

Iowa Hawkeyes--(4-4 Big Ten, 8-4 overall) Kirk Ferentz always has his team ready to play every season. James Vandenburg has the potential to be a good QB, but the Legends Division seems to be pretty strong this year. Wins--NIU, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, CMU, Minn, MSU, PSU, Indiana.  Losses--Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan, Nebraska