Over the past few weeks, we have went through Big Ten bottom-dwellers Penn State and Nebraska, a reborn Illinois, and preseason Top 25 pick Minnesota. This brings us to Iowa. The Hawkeyes had brief moments that left many excited during last season, but for the most part, they just could never compete with the top teams on a consistent basis. I had high hopes for Iowa last season because of their youth and depth, but they just never seemed to turn the corner from decent to good.Iowa entered Big Ten play with a 8-5 non-conference record, but they had a pretty tough schedule so many didn't think this was an accurate description of their team. However, they ended up with an 8-10 record for the Big Ten despite playing very well at home and against some elite teams. It's amazing to think that a team that finished with a losing record in conference play finished the year with two wins over Wisconsin, a win over Michigan, and a win over Indiana. That's wins over four ranked teams.
It's hard for me to remember a team that finished so badly overall, but performed so well against top competition. I think the main reason for this was Iowa's inability to play consistently and play on the road. They finished 3-6 on the road in the Big Ten and often lost to weaker teams such as Penn State and Nebraska in road games. Essentially, this inconsistency and weak play away from home is a description of erratic play, which describes why they had such great wins, but a bad overall record. Along with this, they had a lot of close games. They had seven conference games decided by five points or less with a record of 4-3 in those games. Some of their major victories and weak losses were included in these games. Basically, they had some close games that went their way, but others that didn't, which is why their big wins seem so uncommon. A lot of that inconsistency can be seen in their stats last year:
Record
|
Big Ten
|
PPG
|
PPG Rank
|
Points Allowed
|
Points Allowed Rk
|
3pt%
|
3pt% Rk
| |
MSU
|
29-8
|
13-5
|
72.3
|
3
|
59.3
|
2
|
36.2
|
6
|
OSU
|
31-8
|
13-5
|
75.1
|
2
|
59.8
|
3
|
33.3
|
9
|
Michigan
|
24-10
|
13-5
|
66.5
|
8
|
61.5
|
4
|
35.0
|
8
|
Wisconsin
|
26-10
|
12-6
|
63.9
|
10
|
53.2
|
1
|
36.8
|
5
|
Indiana
|
27-9
|
11-7
|
77.3
|
1
|
66.4
|
10
|
43.1
|
1
|
Purdue
|
22-13
|
10-8
|
72.2
|
4
|
66.0
|
9
|
37.7
|
3
|
NU
|
19-14
|
8-10
|
69.5
|
6
|
68.2
|
11
|
38.6
|
2
|
Iowa
|
18-17
|
8-10
|
71.9
|
5
|
72.5
|
12
|
37.3
|
4
|
23-15
|
6-12
|
67.4
|
7
|
64.8
|
6
|
35.6
|
7
| |
17-15
|
6-12
|
65.6
|
9
|
64.2
|
5
|
30.4
|
12
| |
12-18
|
4-14
|
60.9
|
12
|
65.6
|
7
|
32.4
|
10
| |
12-20
|
4-14
|
61.8
|
11
|
65.8
|
8
|
31.1
|
11
|
Despite Iowa's erratic play last year, they do have the base for what could become a respectable team in the future. I don't think they have as much potential as they did last year, with the loss of their only All-Big Ten player Matt Gatens and fellow senior Bryce Cartwright, but they have some great pieces to work around such as Aaron White, who was named to the All-Big Ten Freshmen team. They return three starters and Melsahn Bassabe, who did a lot of work off the bench, averaging 7.7 pts per game and 4.7 rebounds per game. Obviously, losing their best player and another starter will hurt, but they have four players with at least starter potential to work with next year.
Along with this returning base from last season, Iowa has an impressive incoming recruiting class. When it comes to basketball recruiting, most people wouldn't think of Iowa as a powerhouse. However, their 2012 class boasts five commitments and two ESPN100 players including center Adam Woodbury who is rated as the #39 player in the nation by ESPN. To give you a comparison, one of Michigan's top recruits, Mitch McGary, is rated as #27 by ESPN. Along with this, Iowa also had a few decent commits in their 2011 class that might play more of an impact next season.
Iowa should be a decent team next year in the Big Ten, but I don't see a massive improvement from last year's team. Having three returning starters, their best bench player back, and a great incoming recruiting class will do a lot to help them, but the loss of two starters including their best player is something that's going to hold them back. Yes, they'll have some talent that might adequately replace some of their losses, but they're going to have a major deficit at guard unless someone steps up. I think incoming recruit Mike Gesell could be one of the people to fill this void, but as with all recruits, he's unproven. I think they'll play a little more consistently than last year, but without their best player, I'm not sure if they can beat as many top Big Ten teams as they did last year and even if they do so, I don't think they'll do it enough to be relevant in the Big Ten title race.
Iowa Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 8th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Moderate
Upset Status: Good
NCAA Tournament Status: NIT Bid
Along with this returning base from last season, Iowa has an impressive incoming recruiting class. When it comes to basketball recruiting, most people wouldn't think of Iowa as a powerhouse. However, their 2012 class boasts five commitments and two ESPN100 players including center Adam Woodbury who is rated as the #39 player in the nation by ESPN. To give you a comparison, one of Michigan's top recruits, Mitch McGary, is rated as #27 by ESPN. Along with this, Iowa also had a few decent commits in their 2011 class that might play more of an impact next season.
Iowa should be a decent team next year in the Big Ten, but I don't see a massive improvement from last year's team. Having three returning starters, their best bench player back, and a great incoming recruiting class will do a lot to help them, but the loss of two starters including their best player is something that's going to hold them back. Yes, they'll have some talent that might adequately replace some of their losses, but they're going to have a major deficit at guard unless someone steps up. I think incoming recruit Mike Gesell could be one of the people to fill this void, but as with all recruits, he's unproven. I think they'll play a little more consistently than last year, but without their best player, I'm not sure if they can beat as many top Big Ten teams as they did last year and even if they do so, I don't think they'll do it enough to be relevant in the Big Ten title race.
Iowa Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 8th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Moderate
Upset Status: Good
NCAA Tournament Status: NIT Bid
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