State of Bielema Address

Yes, I know it's been a couple weeks since the last football post. Everyone goes through attrition at some point, even us. However, this isn't about the recent changes here or myself. No, this is about the sudden upheaval that is head coaching in the Big Ten. Specifically I'm talking about the recent decision by Wisconsin's Bret Bielema to jump ship to Arkansas (Purdue had fired Danny Hope and hired former Tressel assistant Darrell Hazell but that's pittance compared to this). Keep in mind that when it comes to Bielema, he was hand picked by Barry Alvarez. He's amassed a record of 68-24 in 7 years, with going to the Rose Bowl 3 straight years. He's gone to a bowl every single year at Wisconsin, and in doing so he's maintained a good program which is difficult in any sport, much less where the team might lose 15-20 players a year. Everyone has their thoughts as to why he has chosen this new avenue---and so here are mine:

Michigan Football Schedules Arkansas, BYU & Hawaii

It's November, and it's Election Day, but there's still interesting news that has come out of Ann Arbor. Now we all know that Notre Dame has elected to drop Michigan from their schedule starting in 2015. What Michigan has done now, and for a couple other schools, is quite head scratching, and here's what is going on:

1. Michigan has added BYU to the 2015 schedule. Before anyone asks, yes it is a home game. It's not a home-and-home series, but Michigan doesn't have to worry about traveling west to Utah. These two schools have only played each other one time in the past... BYU won in the 1984 Holiday Bowl on their way to an undefeated season and the national championship. Now, I'm ok with this setup. BYU is not the national media darling that Notre Dame is, but they aren't slouches either.

2. Michigan will play Arkansas in a few years. Michigan announced more of its post-Notre Dame plans on Tuesday, with three home games for 2016 and a home-and-home series with Arkansas of the SEC in 2018 and 2019. Michigan and Arkansas have met only once, in the CompUSA Florida Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1, 1998. Michigan  won 45-31. Here's what I don't like about this prospect--I don't care for Arkansas as a top quality non-conference school to play against. Take out the seasons that Bobby Petrino has coached there, and Arkansas is the equivalent of Illinois in the SEC. I want tougher competition...and I don't mean Alabama every season. I have no idea what Michigan will look like come 2018, and that's the season the Razorbacks come to Ann Arbor. It just seems like they could do better.

Previewing Non-Conference: Arkansas

One of the more interesting non-conference opponents on Michigan's schedule this season is Arkansas.  Not only because it should be a decent opponent from a big conference, but also because Arkansas was able to beat Michigan in their lone meeting last season 66-64.  The game was incredibly disappointing for Michigan players and fans alike and the team will surely be seeking redemption in this year's meeting.

This will be the second year under coach Mike Anderson and the prospects are certainly much better than those in the first season.  Their overall record didn't improve (actually losing 2 more games than under previous coach John Pelphrey and having a weaker conference record), but just take a look at the roster, which now has 16 players.  A year ago, Arkansas was forced to use converted football players in order to fill its roster.  For a big school like Arkansas, that's something that's almost unthinkable.  Having these capable bodies will undoubtedly help the team as the season goes on and particularly deep conference play.

Instant Analysis: 2012-2013 Michigan Basketball Schedule

Michigan basketball officially released their schedule for this season and much of the reaction was immediate.  We had a good idea of what was coming with some of the earlier announcements such as the game against North Carolina State, but there are a few surprises, both good and bad, in the Big Ten schedule that could make things interesting over the course of the season.  I'm not going to breakdown every game and every specific part of the schedule, but I am going to look at a few key segments and make some general comments about what I think could play out this year.

Non-Conference
There are a few things worth mentioning here.  Overall, there will probably only be a few games that get ample attention from the media.  Despite this, there are still 3 very exciting match-ups and the Preseason NIT, which includes teams like Pittsburgh, Kansas State, and Virginia.  All three could be quality opponents and Michigan will have the chance to play them.  So even if you are a bit concerned by the lack of "big name" teams on the schedule, don't fret because there are plenty of opportunities to see some solid match-ups in the non-conference schedule.

Michigan Basketball Gets Early Season Opportunity

The Wolverines may not be heading to Maui Invitational like they did last year, but they have a great tournament opportunity for next season in Madison Square Garden.  The Pre Season NIT may not be the biggest or most publicized college basketball tournament, but it's certainly one that is respected and will feature some competitive teams.  This tournament is going to be key for Michigan because it gives the team one of its few chances to have some key non-conference wins to boost the team's tournament resume.

The big non-conference games on the schedule (outside of the Pre Season NIT) are Arkansas, West Virginia, and the Big Ten/ACC Challenge match-up (has not been announced yet).  Two of these games will be occurring in Ann Arbor and the other game, against West Virginia, will be played in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY.  All three of these games should be pretty competitive, but it's doubtful any of Michigan's opponents in these three games will be ranked, unless Michigan's ACC opponent is someone like North Carolina or North Carolina State.

Regardless of Michigan's ACC Challenge opponent, the point is still clear.  Michigan has very few legitimate non-conference opponents next season.  Sure, this isn't that unusual for Michigan or other teams, but for a team in Michigan's situation these are great opportunities.  Michigan will certainly be ranked very high to start the season and is bringing in a great roster with some highly regarded recruits, but the team still hasn't made a huge presence in the NCAA Tournament under John Beilein.  With this in mind, performing against top-notch competition should help to alleviate some of the concerns.

As I've pointed out, until Big Ten season starts, Michigan doesn't have a lot of opportunities to prove themselves against top-notch competition.  Yes, Michigan doesn't have to prove themselves as they did 5 or 10 years ago, but they still need to prove that they belong among the elite teams in the nation.  The elite teams in the country typically do well against the tough teams and get good seeding in the NCAA Tournament as a result.  Let's take a look at the teams that earned #1 seeds and how many non-conference games they had against ranked opponents.

	Kentucky	MSU	Syracuse	UNC
Non-Conference Ranked Opponents	3	3	1	2
Location of Games (Home, Road, Neutral)	2-0-1	0-1-2	1-0-0	1-1-0
Record in Games	3-0	1-2	1-0	1-1

*Only counts teams ranked at the time of match-ups. For instance, Indiana did not count as a ranked opponent for Kentucky.


Although one would expect a better record against non-conference ranked opponents, teams like MSU and UNC actually finished at .500 or below.  This is pretty surprising.  However, if one looks at the analysis of these teams, they can see that some of the opponents were teams like Kentucky and UNC, which ended up being #1 seeds.  The other interesting thing to note is that some teams like Syracuse were able to get by without a lot of these games.  Obviously, conference play is the most important factor in NCAA Tournament seeding, but scheduling these types of games does seem important.

After reviewing the table and this information, one may think that these games don't matter to the top NCAA Tournament seeds.  However, I think it's important to differentiate winning and losing these types of games.  For instance, look at the Kentucky vs. UNC match-up at the beginning of the season.  Both ended up being #1 seeds in March.  Does this mean the game didn't matter?  Of course not.  There's no doubt that the result helped Kentucky, it's just that it didn't hurt UNC much.  Look at the Virginia game for Michigan.  It helped Virginia a lot in their seeding, but it didn't really hurt Michigan much.  To me, this shows why it's a great opportunity for Michigan.  Even if they don't do well against tough non-conference opponents and the Pre Season NIT Tournament, they aren't going to be hurt much.  However, if they do well they're going to benefit much in March.

Perhaps I'm overemphasizing the important of these early season match-ups, but imagine if Michigan can win or do well in all of its major non-conference match-ups.  According to CBSsports, the Pre Season NIT Tournament will include Pittsburgh, Kansas State, and Virginia along with Michigan.  None of these three teams are predicted to be ranked in the top 25 to start the season, but all three of them have the potential to be very good.  If Michigan can pull out an early victory over Virginia, Pittsburgh, or Kansas State, it's going to go a long way towards establishing them for March.

Last season, Michigan's only legitimate non-conference win was against Memphis at a neutral site.  However, Michigan also lost on the road against Arkansas and Virginia, which brought them down.  Every one of these #1 seeds had a victory against a ranked non-conference opponent and I think this tournament offers a great shot for Michigan to do that.  If Michigan is able to do well, or win this tournament next season, I think they have a great chance at being ranked very high during the season and getting a great seed in March.  These types of games can't hurt a team, as one can see from the table above, but there's no doubt that it can help a team.


Photo Credit: FantasySP

On the Road Again...To Nebraska

The Michigan Wolverines will tip-off against the Nebraska Cornhuskers tonight for the first time ever in Big Ten play.  Although I think by now most people have gotten used to Nebraska being a member of the Big Ten, but it's still exciting to think that this is the first time Michigan will get to play Nebraska in Big Ten play on the court.  This will also mark the end of what has been an absolutely brutal stretch for Michigan.

Starting a few weeks ago, Michigan will have played five of its last six games on the road.  Not only is this hard enough, but many of those teams have been quality opponents.  Facing teams like Arkansas and Purdue would be tough for most, but they are even harder opponents on the road.  Along with this, the Wolverines had to play Michigan State in East Lansing and Ohio State in Columbus.  Both of those teams are undefeated at home this year.

Considering the scheduling, if Michigan comes out with a win against Nebraska, it will have gone 3-3 in its toughest stretch of the season.  Not exactly what everyone wanted, especially since two of the games were against rivals, but not something that should "bum" anybody out.  Along with this, Michigan finally won a true road game and will still be in the Big Ten race.

So, let's compare these two teams:

Offense
Since Nebraska is 11-11 and one of the bottom teams in the Big Ten, it is not surprising that Michigan has significant advantages in most statistical categories.

Stats

• Michigan 
• Averages 67.0 ppg
• 45.8% Field Goal Percentage
• 8.1 3-PT Shots Made Per Game
• 34.5% 3-PT Percentage
• 13.3 Assists Per Game
• 31.7 Rebounds Per Game
• Nebraska
• Averages 62.2 ppg
• 42.9% Field Goal Percentage
• Make 6.3 3-PT shots per game
• 32.6% 3-PT Percentage
• 12.4 Assists Per Game
• 31.5 Rebounds Per Game

So what do all these stats mean?  Statistically, Michigan is better in virtually every area of the court.  However, one key area to notice is the difference in 3-PT shooting.  Nebraska is known to be pretty good at shooting from outside the arc, but Michigan is superior.  If Michigan wants to maintain their advantage over the Cornhuskers, they will need to beat them outside the arc.  Watch for outside defense to be key to whoever wins this game.

Advantage: Michigan

Defense
Both teams are pretty solid on this side of the court, but once again the Wolverines have a pretty significant advantage over the Cornhuskers.


Stats

• Michigan 
• Allow 61.0 ppg
• 42.5% Field Goal Percentage Allowed
• 6.1 3-PT Shots Allowed Per Game
• 35.1% 3-PT Percentage Allowed
• 11.4 Assists Allowed Per Game
• 31.3 Rebounds Allowed Per Game
• Nebraska
• Allow 64.4 ppg
• 43.5% Field Goal Percentage Allowed
• 6.3 3-PT Shots Allowed Per Game
• 33.9% 3-PT Percentage Allowed
• 11.0 Assists Allowed Per Game
• 31.5 Rebounds Allowed Per Game

The stats clearly show that Michigan's defense has been better this year, but there are some key differences.  Michigan has actually played better interior defense than Nebraska, which may be surprising, while Nebraska has played better on the outside.  Now, the quality of competition is highly debatable considering that Michigan went to Maui while Nebraska did nothing.

Michigan still has the advantage, but I think Nebraska's defense is going to play quite well in this game.  They've played well against some of the other 3-PT shooting teams in the Big Ten and I expect them to continue to do that on the defensive end.  Just because I believe that 3-PT shooting is going to be a major issue in this game I'm going to say it's closer, but Michigan still gets the edge.

Advantage: Michigan

Intangibles/Crowd
Neither team is coming in remarkably hot (a combined 3 straight losses) and there really aren't a lot of stakes on this game.  However, I assume Nebraska fans will show up to see Michigan for the first time in Big Ten play.  Anticipating this and its impact on the Cornhuskers is the main reason I am giving them the edge in this category.  Michigan has responded quick well to losses (haven't lost two in a row all season), but playing on the road has not been their strong suit either.  Understanding this, Nebraska gets the edge here.

Advantage: Nebraska

Overall
Frankly, I've given Nebraska a lot of credit in this preview, but if the Wolverines lose I will be very disappointed and concerned.  If there is a must-win road game on the schedule, it is this game.  Nebraska and Penn State are dominating the bottom-tier of the Big Ten and Michigan is trying to prove they belong among the top-tier.  However, this game will not be that simple.

As usual, Michigan will have to win this in a hostile environment.  They have been pretty underwhelming on the road this season and against weaker teams.  Now, the reasons for that can be debated, but this just doesn't seem to be a team that will "destroy" an opponent.  Most of the games, especially in Big Ten play, have been highly competitive, at least for segments.  I'm expecting Michigan to get ahead early by a decent margin, but to give up a good hunk of that lead and make it close

My Magic Pick Is...


Michigan 68-63


Photo Credit: The Sports Bank