Which Team Will Draft Tim Hardaway, Jr. On Thursday?

Photo Credit: WXYZ

The NCAA and NBA seasons are wrapped up, which means everyone's talking about the NBA Draft and what's going to happen next season.  Yesterday, we did a short breakdown on Trey Burke and his NBA Draft status.  Today, we're going to look at Michigan's second major candidate to be drafted on Thursday night: Tim Hardaway, Jr.  Both were great players for the Wolverines and Michigan fans surely want to see them rewarded for their efforts by the NBA scouts.  Hardaway is not as highly projected as Burke, but he still could easily be higher than any Michigan draft pick in years.  There have been just two Michigan players drafted in the last 12 seasons and neither have went in the 1st round.  With that in mind, let's take a look at where the "experts" are projecting Hardaway:

• Adi Joseph (USA Today) - #20 by Chicago
• Matt Moore (CBS) - #34 by Houston
• Gary Parrish (CBS) - #36 by Sacramento
• NBADraft.net - #18 by Atlanta
• Draft Express (DE) - #20 by Chicago

The crazy thing here is that Hardaway is all over the board.  Some guys think he's going to go really high and others see him dropping somewhere in the 2nd round.  To start, it seems pretty clear that Hardaway will indeed be drafted.  To project otherwise would just be crazy at this point.  He also looks to fill a role occupied by many NBA prospects.  He's clearly good enough to go in the 1st round, but it will take a team dedicated to Hardaway and his future to actually gain that selection.  He's just as likely to be snagged in the 20s as he is to drop somewhere early or deep into the 2nd round.

For NBA agents, this makes it very difficult.  There's a desire to grab guys like Hardaway when they come around the first time, but if they do indeed drop, it's a lot easier to trade up for the #35 pick than the #20 pick.  By that time, every top prospect is off the board and all the guys that are considered "guarantees" to go early already know where they're going.  Needless to say, it can easily turn into a "high risk, high reward" pick.  Compare a Hardaway #20 selection to a guy like Michael Carter-Williams or Shabazz Muhammad.  Nothing against either of these guys, but one of the players projected in the teens will undoubtedly fall deeper in the draft order and these are just two of the guys I'm highlighting.  A team may want a guy like Hardaway, but there won't nearly be as much skepticism if they select a Carter-Williams or a Muhammad instead.  Again, this is just a hypothetical, but it shows why it's so difficult to project a guy like Hardaway because of the concern about missing out on a guy with the hype and projections.

Frankly, there's no predicting who will draft Hardaway, but if I had to make an educated guess, I would say Hardaway ends up going in the 1st round (Chicago?).  I think the strong NCAA Tournament run, the Big Ten name brand, and a great NBA Combine performance will be enough to merit at least one believer.  And remember, that's all it takes, just one believer.  If he does slip out of the 1st round, it isn't too big of a deal as Hardaway will certainly get a contract, but it will be a bit disappointing considering all the positive momentum he has going his way right now.  Either way, stay tuned as it will surely be an exciting night.

Making The Case: A New NBA Draft

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

With the NBA Draft right around the corner, it seems like a good time to talk about the current format of the NBA Draft and its impact on the league, the college game, and the players.  Michigan has a special relationship to the NBA Draft this year with two of its players (Trey Burke & Tim Hardaway, Jr.) leaving college early for the NBA.  This post isn't necessarily about dissecting whether these or other players made the best decision for themselves, but more about whether the NBA has set up the right framework for its draft process on all three levels.

First thing first, let's go through what the current NBA Draft process looks like.  For a player to declare for the NBA Draft, they must be at least 19 during the calendar year of the draft.  Essentially, a player must be removed from high school for at least one season.  The NBA doesn't clarify what players should do during the 1 year break, but the vast majority go to college to attempt to improve their game and earn a draft spot in the NBA.  Once the year has passed, players can enter the NBA Draft.  Basically, under this system, a player could potentially go through 3 NBA decisions following their freshman, sophomore, and junior years.

This is actually a relatively new system.  Before the introduction of the 19 year old rule, players only had to be 18 years old to qualify for the NBA Draft.  This is the system that players like Kobe Bryant and LeBron James used to enter the NBA.  They opted to forego college careers and enter the NBA immediately upon high school graduation.  For the most part, the two systems were largely the same.  It was a rare development for players to head to the NBA immediately following high school simply for the fact that it there were only a few players truly good enough to be drafted, but it still did allow players like LeBron and Kobe to jump a year earlier.

For me, both of these systems have some major flaws.  First, the current 19+ system forces athletes like LeBron and Kobe to enter college for at least one season.  There's no reason that players of this caliber need to play at the college level.  They're clearly NBA talents and the odds that they would stay beyond 1 or 2 seasons and get a college degree is probably pretty low.  So essentially, they're wasting a year of their NBA career in a league that is below their talent level.  The original system (18+) allows these guys to go pro, but still has it's downside.  It could theoretically add another year to their "decision" as they have to make a decision coming out of high school as well.

Given these problems, I'm going to make a case for the system used by the MLB and proposed by the Big Ten Network's Tom Dienhart.  The great thing about this system is that it works out well for each of the three categories (NBA, college, players) that make up the NBA Draft process.  Essentially, this is how the MLB system works.  Players have the option to go pro or go to college directly out of high school.  If they decide to go pro, they can go pro, but if they decide to go to college, they must sign for three seasons.  In my opinion, this would be much better than the current system.

First, it helps the NBA.  Not only does it give them immediate access to the talents like LeBron and Kobe (which they don't have currently), but it will also lead to better draft pools down the road.  There are going to be some high school jumpers, but if players enter college, they are going to be proven by time they can go to the pro level.  If a player is in college for 3+ seasons, it's hard to believe they will still have major question marks.  Take a look at Tim Hardaway, Jr.  He has some question marks, but nothing even close to players like Steven Adams (Pitt) and Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse) who both jumped pro after one season and are rated higher than Hardaway by many scouts.  Overall, it gives access to the best talent and solidifies the rest of the talent field.

Next, it will also help the college game.  Nothing is worse for college basketball fans than the yearly hoopla surrounding some of their favorite players and their NBA decisions.  Well, nothing is different for the coaches's mindsets (excluding guys like Calipari) who recruit players with the intent to watch them grow as players and men.  This system would be a huge improvement in removing that pressure for fans, coaches, and programs.  The current NBA timeline leaves 3 years of decision-making on the schedule.  This system would have just 2 and one of those would occur before the player even got to college, which is certainly less significant than a post-freshman or sophomore decision.  It's hard to believe this wouldn't also improve the game as the average age and experience of players and teams would improve, plus it would make one year sensation teams like 2011-2012 Kentucky extinct.  I really do believe the college game would become much more competitive and consistent.

Finally, I really do believe it would help players in the long run.  Maybe not in every single case, but it would keep players like Nerlens Noel from suffering ACL injuries for no reason and ensure that players are developed enough to compete at the NBA level by keeping them from jumping as freshman or sophomores.  Undeniably, in some cases, players could have probably made more money if they jumped a year or two earlier, but how many players go to the NBA as freshmen or sophomores and crash out after a year or two?  This system wouldn't be guaranteed to help every player stay in the NBA
longer, but they certainly should have an improved game, plus they'll be a lot closer to a college degree than if they stayed for just one year, which would be a major advantage for a player that is finished playing in the NBA.

Overall, the debate will continue and the NBA seems no closer to changing this rule than they were a few years ago, but there are some strong arguments to adapting the current system to look closer to the model used by the MLB.  This system is not perfect either, but the positives for the NBA, the colleges, and the players seem to imply that this would be a major improvement.

What If Darius Morris Had Stayed?

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Over the last week, there has been a lot of coverage regarding the Los Angeles Lakers, their rise to the NBA playoffs, then their subsequent collapse.  One of the key factors in this collapse was the massive amount of injuries the team suffered.  However, these developments were particularly interesting for Michigan fans because they were able to witness Darius Morris (former Michigan point guard) get the starting nod in the playoffs, which was not something many predicted to see this quickly.

Whether Morris did a good job in this position is up for debate (the Lakers got swept in 4 games), but it did get me thinking about the way Morris impacted Michigan.  Many have forgotten about Morris and the earlier Beilein teams due to the massive success in the last two years for Michigan and Trey Burke.  An NCAA title game appearance and a Big Ten Championship are pretty noteworthy and will make a lot of people forget about the past, but Morris was a pretty good player in Ann Arbor.

Morris was instrumental in not only getting Michigan back to the NCAA Tournament after missing it in the previous year, but also in a sweep of in-state rival MSU and a huge 1st round win against Tennessee in the tourney.  This may not sound that significant, but a sweep of MSU was actually pretty significant.  Not only had Michigan lost 4 straight games to the Spartans, but they had also lost 6 of the last 7 games against MSU and 10 out of the last 12 games.  Their last victory over MSU came in February of 2007 andthe 2002-2003 season was the last one that Michigan had a winning record against the Spartans and that was only a one game series, not a two game series.  The last season sweep for Michigan over MSU was in 1997.  Needless to say, these were two big wins.

However, after having an exciting year for Michigan with some big wins, Morris opted to jump to the NBA and was drafted by the Lakers.  Whether this was the right decision can be debated, but what could things have looked like if he had decided to remain in Ann Arbor.  Of course, his NBA draft pedigree would have likely changed, but what would have changed for Michigan?  Trey Burke came on campus the year after Morris left, won himself Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and then followed it with National Player of the Year.  This leads to some major lineup questions if Morris and Burke both would have been on one roster.

The 2011-2012 Season
This would probably have been the most interesting year if Morris would have stayed in Ann Arbor.  Trey Burke is a fantastic player.  You can make a strong argument that he was the best point guard in Michigan basketball history.  This is going to sway a lot of people into believing he would have won the starting role here.  However, this is a revisionist thought and represents something that wasn't know before or during the 2011-2012 season.  Why?  Because he was not the best player in the nation during his freshman campaign.

Burke was good as a freshman and maybe even great, but he certainly wasn't elite.  He should have been 1st team All-Big Ten as a freshman and he was the best player on the Michigan roster, but he still made mistakes and had some rough games down the stretch.  One of the biggest factors were his turnovers and risky outside shots.  He certainly had his moments and in some of the biggest games of the year, but he still had some major flaws in his game as a freshman.

Along with this, Morris had also entrenched himself as Michigan's starting point guard.  It's one thing to show up with little depth and take over the starting role, but another thing to come in and beat out the previous year's starter, especially when they're probably the best player on the team.  Morris was a good player the season before and there isn't much of a reason to believe he wouldn't have improved the next year, at least slightly.  I think Trey Burke is great and became better than Morris, but I'm not convinced that freshman Burke could have moved junior Morris from his starting spot.

However, this still would have given Michigan really good depth off the bench.  Burke would have certainly got some solid minutes and rightfully so.  I can even imagine Beilein bringing Burke off the bench to play alongside Morris at the 2 spot.  How cool would it have been to see a Morris backcourt pass to Burke for a 3 point shot?  Beilein has shown he's willing to think outside the box to utilize guys and this roster would have been a perfect example.

You also have to think that Michigan would have been right in the Big Ten title race, especially considering that Burke would have been the guy pulled off the bench to get the offense going again.  I certainly think the team would have done better near the end of the year as well with less wear and tear due to the massive playing times of guys like Burke and Hardaway.  Morris could have made all the difference and maybe we would have gotten a big tourney run a year earlier.

The 2012-2013 Season
Now, this is the area where it gets really speculative.  One would think that Morris would have jumped pro following the 2011-2012 season if he had not jumped originally after the 2010-2011 season.  This would have put sophomore Burke into the starting role and things would have probably been pretty similar to the roster makeup of the past season.  Maybe Spike is recruited, maybe not, but Beilein would have probably brought in a point guard regardless of Morris staying since many signs would have pointed to him leaving the next year.

If for some reason Morris would have opted to stay for his senior year all bets are off on what the lineup would have looked like for this season.  Morris would have gotten better certainly, but this would be the season where Burke was the national player of the year candidate.  We don't know if he would have still been at this level, but if he was this good, would Morris still be on the court more than Burke?  Sophomore Burke was better than Morris was at anytime during his Michigan career and even if Morris had 2 more seasons to improve, I'm not sure he could gotten to that level.  Burke was much better than he was as a freshman and I think you can
make an argument about freshman Burke against junior Morris, which implies how good of a player Burke was for Michigan.

Regardless, if Morris was on last year's roster, the team would have been insanely loaded and both guys would have got some solid minutes.  I can honestly imagine a Morris, Burke, Hardaway, GR3, and Morgan/McGary lineup for the last season.  Stauskas and LeVert would have come off the bench and Spike would have certainly been redshirted.  That is a really good lineup.  It's certainly not crazy to think Michigan could have beaten Louisville with Morris on the roster.

Overall
Morris obviously didn't stay, but it's still a fun topic to debate and breakdown.  How much of a difference would Morris have made by staying?  In my opinion, the main difference would have been during Burke's freshman year when he was still improving his game.  This would have allowed players to rest and probably would have made Michigan better at the end of the year when they had a discouraging collapse against Ohio State then Ohio in the NCAA Tournament.  Either way, both players should be in the NBA next year and maybe we'll get a chance to see them compete there.

Michigan Looks To "Size Up" In The NBA

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Michigan basketball hasn't been in good shape for a long time.  Entering the 2011-2012 season, the Wolverines hadn't won a Big Ten championship since the Reagan administration and hadn't made a Final Four appearance in nearly 20 years.  Over the last two seasons, Michigan has erased these deficits and truly returned the Wolverines to national relevance.
However, one of the gaps that still exists is in the NBA.  Michigan has produced a bunch of quality NBA talent during its history, but right now, that talent pool has largely dried up.  Though the NBA ranges somewhere between 360-450 players at a time (varies due to roster size), Michigan only has 3 players on NBA rosters.  Along with this, they only have 1 player who has been a major contributor; Jamal Crawford.

Sure, Darius Morris got the chance to start a few playoff games and Juwan Howard was on the Miami Heat when they won the NBA title last year, but neither of these guys are exactly all-star caliber right now.  I won't minimize the significance of making an NBA roster because it's extremely difficult, but in terms of evaluating Michigan's performance in the NBA, being a contributor or on the bench is a pretty big difference.  If the Wolverines really want to increase the strength of their program and its relevance at the national level, putting quality players in the NBA is one of the biggest steps.

The good news is that Michigan is set to take a big step this year in achieving this goal.  They only have two players in serious consideration for this year's draft (Trey Burke & Tim Hardaway, Jr.), but both of these guys are in good position to get drafted and make an NBA roster.  Burke has been projected as an NBA lottery pick and Hardaway appears aimed to go somewhere in the 2nd round.  That is not only a big jump for Michigan simply in the number of NBA players for the program, but also in the number of quality players.  Burke has a very high probability to start in his rookie season and although Hardaway will probably fall into more of a Morris role, depending on the team, he might be able to log some solid minutes.

What's also significant is that this year's draft should inject some youth into Michigan's NBA players.  Howard is certainly nearing the end of his NBA career and even Crawford was drafted in 2000.  That gives Michigan just one player on an NBA roster that has been drafted in over a decade.  This really doesn't matter that much year to year, but it definitely increases the odds of Michigan having solid players in the future considering the typical length of NBA careers.

Plus, to go along with what should be a great NBA Draft for the Michigan Wolverines this year, they have a bunch of solid NBA prospects on their roster next season.  Not only will Michigan have two players that would have easily been drafted this year (Mitch McGary & GR3), but they are adding Zak Irvin who has the potential to be a one and done type of player, adding Derrick Walton who could certainly be drafted in a few years, and have a few guys like Nik Stauskas who will probably get on an NBA roster at some point.  If things continue at this rate, Michigan is going to have a big presence in the NBA not just in the next year, but 5-10 years down the road.

Michigan has definitely been making positive steps in rebuilding its program.  They've been making the NCAA Tournament, winning conference titles, and winning tourney games.  Michigan has also drastically improved its recruiting and is now bringing in top talent.  The only thing left to take Michigan's program to the next level is increasing its role in the NBA.  The Wolverines are in a good position to start fixing that this summer.

2013 Michigan NBA Draft Hotboard

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Michigan's roster has been experiencing the full weight of the NBA and the NBA Draft since their National Championship game appearance against Louisville.  As of now, Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. have declared for the NBA Draft.  Everyone else has either made no inclinations of their desire to go to the NBA this year or verbally announced (McGary & GR3) that they would be returning to Ann Arbor next season.  Until April 28th, players can still declare for the NBA Draft, so things are not 100% guaranteed until then.  There are still many interested in not only the impact of those who stayed, but also the impact of those who left on the team and their status in the draft.  In order to help, I've made a short post that should keep you updated on what is going on with the NBA Draft and its relation to Michigan.

HMM Coverage:

• Analysis: Which Team Will Draft Trey Burke?
• Analysis: Which Team Will Draft THJ?
• Making the Case: A New NBA Draft
• Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft
• Quick Thoughts: Burke To The NBA
• Quick Thoughts: Hardaway To The NBA
• Quick Thoughts: GR3 & McGary Returning

National Coverage:

• ESPN: Trey Burke's Profile
• ESPN: Tim Hardaway's Profile
• ESPN: Mitch McGary's Profile
• ESPN: GR3's Profile
• ESPN: Trey Burke Enters Draft
• ESPN: Hardaway To Enter Draft
• ESPN: Case For Burke As The #1 Pick
• CBS: Trey Burke To The NBA
• CBS: Hardaway To The NBA
• CBS: GR3 and McGary Return to Michigan
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From Trey Burke's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From THJ's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From Mitch McGary's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From GR3's NBA Announcement

General NBA Draft Coverage:

• NBA.com
• ESPN
• CBS
• Jeff Goodman Mock Draft
• Chad Ford's Top 100
• Hoops Hype
• Draft Express
• NBADraft

Quick Thoughts: Hardaway To The NBA

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Too sad

Quick Thoughts: Hardaway To The NBA

Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

It's an interesting draft year for Michigan.  Read about projections and predictions below:

Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft

Previewing The Roster: Guards

I'm reaching the end of basketball preview season and I've already went through Michigan's wings and bigs for this year. Last up are the guards.  Michigan's guards should be outstanding this year and have repeatedly received love from the basketball analysts and national media.  Michigan loses very little at the position and brings in a few players that have the chance to make a major impact both now and in the future.

Last season, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, and Stu Douglass dominated the position.  Once in awhile, Beilein would bring in Matt Vogrich or Eso Akunne, but this was a position primarily dominated by those three players.  Douglass will be gone, but all the other guys are back for the season.  This was Michigan's strongest positional group last season and the loss of Douglass shouldn't be too significant of an impact for the position and team, especially with the recruiting additions.

New recruits that could make an impact the position this year are Spike Albrecht, Nik Stauskas, and Caris LeVert.  Glenn Robinsion III could get a little time at the 2 spot, but I don't see him doing anything significant at the position.  I think he's a much better fit at the 3 and he does play the 4 in the smaller lineup for Michigan, so I don't see him being at the 2 for very long, if at all.  So after adding the new recruits, that gives us 7 players that will likely be making contributions in the backcourt for Michigan this season.

Michigan vs. Northern Michigan: Quick Reactions

So now that I've had a few hours to digest Michigan's first exhibition of the season, I think it's a good time to give some comments on what happened tonight, especially for those that weren't able to see the game.  There were a lot of expectations leading into the game and for the most part, I thought Michigan did a pretty good job living up to them.  Of course, nothing's going to be perfect during the first game of the season, but for a team losing two starters, two captains, and the team's best 6th man, they did pretty well.

I'll start with the obvious.  The starting lineup for tonight was Spike Albrecht, Matt Vogrich, Tim Hardaway, Glenn Robinson III, and Jordan Morgan.  Obviously, Spike only got the nod because Trey Burke was suspended for the first game, but it's still pretty significant for a true freshman who didn't have a lot of recruiting hype to start the first game.  I didn't expect Vogrich to start, but given that Mitch McGary doesn't seem fully ready (I'll cover this below) and Jon Horford is out with injury, it's not that surprising.  Vogrich was the best option at the time and he did pretty well.  The last three starters seemed pretty obvious and I projected them to start earlier this year.

Previewing The Roster: Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Out of all the players on Michigan's roster last season, Tim Hardaway, Jr. was probably the most hyped player coming into last year.  He did live up to some of this hype, but ultimately, many fans were disappointed with his lack of consistency and overall production.  I remember even commenting on it early in the non-conference schedule.  I think part of this is because of the high expectations he received in the offseason after a spectacular freshman campaign, but there's no doubt that he struggled at times.

During last season, Hardaway's numbers improved slightly, but his efficiency did not take the step forward that many assumed.  He did average 14.6 points, 2.1 assists, and 28.3% from outside the arch, but that wasn't really a step forward from his freshman year.  He increased his average points, assists, and blocks per game, but he also increased his minutes, fouls, and turnovers.  For a player going from his freshman to sophomore year, you wouldn't expect that kind of transition.  He made some big contributions to the team, but it was the fact that he took him an average of 3.5 minutes longer to make those contributions that concerned many fans.

Previewing The Roster: Wings

This is my first of three positional group previews for the 2012-2013 Michigan basketball season.  This could very well be the most interesting positional group for Michigan because of the depth and flexibility of the position.  The guards and big men are not solidified by any measure, but projections for the way they will be set-up for the coming season are pretty straightforward in comparison to the way the wings could end up.  Even a quick glance at the roster will show the confusion about which players will dominate this role.

Of the 15 man roster, there are 4-7 players that could end up playing on the wing this year.  The reason I'm using a range is because several of these players including Josh Bartelstein, Corey Person, and Nik Stauskas have the potential to play some other positions on the floor.  All three are listed as guards, but each of these guys could easily play the 2 spot and some of them like Stauskas even have a shot at playing the point in the future.  In Beilein's system, there isn't a ton of difference between the 2 and the 3 spots, which means there is a lot of crossover between the wings and the guards.

CBSSports Preseason Rankings: Michigan And Big Ten Breakdown

Earlier this week, CBS Sports released several lists look at the upcoming college basketball season.  Not only did they break down some of the elite teams, but they took a look at the best players across the nation and named their preseason All-American picks and their Top 100 players in the country.  Now, I don't make it a habit of responding to every preseason hype list or ranking, but I thought the way CBS laid out the rankings was quite interesting and I wanted to respond.

Their preview post had three parts; Preseason All-Americans, Top 100 Players, and Final Four Predictions. I'm only going to respond to the first two because responding to every expert's Final Four picks is simply ludicrous   Most of them will be off and it would simply take too much time to analyze each pick.  However, I thought the selections in the All-American and Top 100 players lists were pretty interesting and something I wanted to analyze.  So here are where Michigan and the Big Ten teams stacked up on both lists:

Previewing The Roster: Matt Vogrich

Well, we're starting to get to that special time of year again.  When college football season is roaring and college basketball is just around the corner.  With that in mind, we're officially going to start previewing the team that will take the court for Michigan this season.  Arguably, the best way to do this is to go through the entire roster.  There's no specific order for our roster previews, but we're starting with one of Michigan's more prominent role players, Matt Vogrich.

Vogrich will be entering his senior season with mixed expectations and performances.  He was a 3* recruit when he committed to Michigan back in 2009 and has improved largely from his freshman season.  However, he took a step back in his junior year.  Not just in production, but he played an average of 3.3 fewer minutes per game last year than he did the year before.  Typically, when a player's time is reduced from their sophomore to junior year, it's a sign of one of two things.  Either newer players are stepping up and taking the playing time, or the player has taken a step back.  Unfortunately for Vogrich, there wasn't much roster transition at his spot last year, which probably signals that  it was more of a step back.

Updating 2013 Commit Austin Hatch

If there has ever been a commit that has received unanimous support from the Michigan community, it's Austin Hatch.  Not because he's an insanely elite prospect, but because of the hardship he has endured since he committed to Michigan.  He recently survived a brutal plane crash that killed both his father and his stepmother and has been on the road to recovery ever since.  He was injured severely in the crash and for him to even contemplate a return to basketball is amazing.  Every year and recruiting class typically brings one "heartfelt" story, but Hatch has taken that meaning to a new level and should be one of the most beloved Michigan players in future years, whether he turns into a great college player or not.

Hatch's major asset that he brings to the table is his shooting ability.  However, with the plane crash there have been major questions raised about his abilities in terms of both his athleticism and general basketball skills.  In fact, it's still a question whether he will be ready for basketball at all once he arrives on campus in 2013.  I do believe he will be ready to play, but it's going to be quite awhile before he recovers the talents that encompassed his game before the crash.  Until he is completely college ready, which may even be a year or two into college, he's not going to be a major contributor.

Updating 2013 Commit Zak Irvin

Another year and another big commit from Indiana.  In recent years, Michigan has built its teams and recruiting classes off players from Indiana.  A few years ago, two low ranked recruits named Zack Novak and Stu Douglass joined the Wolverines.  They were some of the key factors that got Michigan back to the NCAA Tournament after a decade long drought and to a Big Ten title in 2012.  Michigan then followed by signing its highest rated recruit in the 2012 recruiting class, 5* Glenn Robinson III, who is also from Indiana.  With such strong success recruiting the state of Indiana, it only made sense to bring in another highly rated recruit, Zak Irvin in 2013.

Irvin has great size at 6'6" and is extremely talented on the offensive side of the ball.  He's been called "aggressive" and is cited as a great 3-point shooter.  For Beilein's offense, this is obviously a major advantage for Irvin.  The only area that he probably does need to work on is his strength.  In fact, he actually got bumped down to junior varsity level because his coaches believed he needed to work on his strength.  Now, this shouldn't be a major concern since his school has enormous depth and talent (He actually went to school with 5* MSU commit Gary Harris).  However, if Irvin wants to make an immediate transition to the college game, he will have to work on this weakness.

Michigan Basketball Absent In NBA Draft, But Still Aims For Pros

There were four Big Ten players selected in the 2012 NBA Draft; Meyers Leonard from Illinois (1st Round 11th Pick), Jared Sullinger from Ohio State (1st Round 21st Pick), Draymond Green from Michigan State (2nd Round 5th Pick), and Robbie Hummel from Purdue (2nd Round 28th Pick).  Some of these players may have been selected too high in my opinion and others too low, but all of these guys certainly seemed draft worthy.  The Big Ten did also have one player, John Shurna from Northwestern, that surprised some people by going undrafted.

Michigan basketball was absent from the NBA Draft this year.  This has been an unsettling trend for Michigan fans and the program in general.  Although the NBA Draft isn't necessarily a symbol of a program's strength, direction, and talent, it still has some positive attributes.  Being involved in the NBA Draft gets a lot of attention from recruits, the media, and fans, strongly increases the long-term legacy of the players and the program, and also is just a good sign of players meeting their long-term life goals.

Key 2012 Recruit Deciding Wednesday

Photo Credit: DeCamp

After wrapping up his latest visits and his Michigan visit last Thursday, Caris LeVert will be making his college decision this Wednesday according to UMHoops and his high school head coach.  Is this a good or a bad sign for Michigan?  As I said before his visit last Thursday, I think Michigan is in great position to get a commitment from LeVert.  Not only because of his potential role in Michigan's program over the next few years, but also because he has some unique connections to the school.

Another Pickerton Central recruit has selected Michigan and LeVert would likely feel more comfortable with a school where he knows at least some other individuals.  Taco Charlton, a 4* defensive end recruit, currently goes to the same school as LeVert and has been tweeting recently in regards to LeVert's decision.  From what's he has tweeted so far, it certainly looks pretty good for Michigan.  There is always a possibility he ends up somewhere else, but if he's not in Ann Arbor next fall, I would be very surprised.

He is currently ranked as a 3* by Rivals and ranked as a 2* by ESPN.  Personally, I think this could be one of Michigan's greatest recruiting steals and think he has the potential to be a lot better than many speculate.  Several other schools are interested including Big Ten school Purdue, which shows that he is considered at least a Big Ten quality player.

Along with the potential to improve while enrolled at Michigan, he has a unique opportunity because of the depth situation.  Michigan has two other guards in the class, Spike Albrecht and Nik Stauskus, but Michigan will probably be short-handed at the position for the next few years, especially if Michigan players continue going pro at their current rate.  Eso Akunne will be graduating after this season, Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. will probably be headed to the NBA after this season, and there's a good chance some of Michigan's future players at the position including 2013 point guard commit Derrick Walton could be leaving early for the NBA.  Obviously, there's no guarantee when people will be going to the NBA, but I think there's going to be a lot of potential for playing time if LeVert picks Michigan, which most anticipate he will this Wednesday.  Either way, we'll keep you posted.

Michigan Basketball In Position To Land Transfer Julius Mays

Photo Credit: Scout

It looks like this crazy year of recruiting for Michigan's basketball program has taken another twist today as CBSSports reported that Julius Mays would be transferring from Wright State.  Typically, this wouldn't matter that much, but it was also reported that Mays had listed Michigan as one of his top schools.  Mays is a 6' 2" guard that played at both North Carolina State and Wright State.  He averaged 14.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game last season at Wright State.  He's a very capable player and has experience playing in both the ACC and some big games.  Along with this, from what I understand of his situation, he will be eligible to play next season.

Right now, he's considering Michigan, Purdue, MSU, Kentucky, and Cincinnati as transfer destinations.  Do I think he'll end up here?  Probably not, but if Michigan doesn't land what appears to be its only remaining prospect in the 2012 recruiting class, Caris LeVert, I think there's a chance Michigan lands Mays.  However, because he's originally from Indiana, I think he will be leaning towards Purdue.  Plus with their lineup, they probably have more room for him than Michigan.  At Michigan, where he'd be for one year, he'd likely be competing against players like Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. for playing time.  Whether he could pass either of them for a starting spot is pretty debatable.  Along with this, Burke and Hardaway play a lot of minutes last season, so playing time would certainly be an issue if Mays came to Ann Arbor.

The one significant advantage Mays would bring to Michigan would be increased depth.  Typically, when a team adds a player, they have to give up a scholarship for 3-4 years and are bringing in a true freshman.  In this situation, Michigan would only have to sacrifice a scholarship for one year and get a very experience and capable player.  Along with this, Michigan's only point guard in the 2012 class, Spike Albrecht, would probably be able to redshirt next season, which would do a lot to help Michigan in the long run because Michigan has been short on point guards as of late.  Whether he'd backup Hardaway or Burke is something that's unclear, but there's no doubt if he came to Michigan he would be on the floor for a good chunk of time.  I don't see him starting, but if Burke or Hardaway had a bad night, I could see Mays playing as many, or more, minutes than Burke or Hardaway for that night.

For Michigan fans, I wouldn't get my hopes up too much, since I really believe he's going to end up playing for the Boilermakers, but there's no doubt that he could be useful for Michigan if he ends up here.  There doesn't seem to be an exact timeline for his decision, but I couldn't see it going too much longer because he'll certainly want to become acquainted with the staffs and his fellow players.

On a side-note, if he ends up at Purdue, which I expect, this could do a lot to chance the balance in the Big Ten.  Purdue probably won't be a championship favorite by any means, but with Mays and their solid incoming recruiting class, I could see them being able to upset teams like Indiana, Michigan, and MSU.  Don't expect them to be dominant, but Purdue certainly pulled off some impressive wins last year when they were consistently the underdog team.  In other words, keep an eye out for Mays whether he lands up at Michigan or not, because fans will probably know him well by the end of the season.

Michigan Basketball Roster: Part III - Star Players

Photo Credit: CourierPress

Over the past few weeks I have been breaking down Michigan's basketball roster for next season and comparing it to other Big Ten teams.  In Part I, it analyzed the Big Ten's returning rosters and I concluded that Indiana probably has the best returners primarily because of their impressive depth.  In Part II, I analyzed the incoming recruiting classes and their potential impact.  I concluded that Michigan's class is probably going to have the biggest impact next season.  In this section, I'm going to be breaking down what defines most basketball teams, their star players.

There's probably no other sport that cements itself more around star players than basketball.  I'll give you a quick example.  Look at last season's national championship team, Kentucky.  They had some great players, but for the most part, Anthony Davis carried that team.  Compare that to Alabama's national championship football team.  There's no way anybody can say one player carried that team.  Whether star players are so important in basketball because of the team's size (5 vs. 11) is up for debate, but there is definitely a deep focus on star players in the entire sport of basketball, not just in college.

Having said this, let's look at the Big Ten.  Which star players are coming back, and which new recruits are most likely to become star players next season?  Well, as I've used in the last two posts, the best measure of returning stars is probably the All-Big Ten rankings.  Right now, there are 8 All-Big Ten players that will be returning next season.  However, for the purposes of this evaluation, a few of those should be removed because they only made one of the All-Big Ten lists.  For instance, Brandon Paul only made the coaches' list and Aaron Craft only made the media list.  Under most situations, I would count them, but when we're comparing star player status and role, you can't really make a case that they're better than people that made both lists.  This leaves us with 6 returning All-Big Ten players that we can breakdown.

	PPG	APG	RPG	SPG
Cody Zeller (IN)	15.6	1.3	6.6	1.4
Trey Burke (MI)	14.8	4.6	3.5	0.9
Tim Hardaway (MI)	14.6	2.1	3.8	0.5
Deshaun Thomas (OSU)	15.9	0.9	5.4	0.4
Keith Appling (MSU)	11.4	3.9	2.9	1.2
Drew Crawford (NU)	16.1	2.1	4.7	1.2

Among this mess of stats, there are some divisions that should strike the eye.  The first thing is that Cody Zeller and Trey Burke are a step above everybody else.  Next, that Deshaun Thomas is a step above the bottom three.  Obviously, stats should not be the only measure of a star player's role on their team, but I think most would agree that Zeller and Burke are probably the best returning players in the Big Ten.  In fact, they were the only players on the list above that made 2nd team All-Big Ten on both the coaches and media lists.  Thomas made it on the coaches' list, but fell to 3rd team All-Big Ten on the media list.  The other three only qualified as 3rd team All-Big Ten.

By now, I'm assuming most Michigan fans have spotted the other important element of this chart.  Michigan is the only team in the Big Ten returning more than one player that received all conference honors.  I spoke about this in great depth in Part I of my analysis, but it's the major reason that I believe there should be a debate about Michigan and Indiana's returning players.  Indiana certainly has a better cast coming back since they return 5 starters, but Michigan's 3 returning starters are probably more talented and have contributed more than Indiana's returners on average.

So Michigan has one of the top two returning players and is the only team returning more than one All-Big Ten player.  Does this mean Michigan will have the best star players next season?  One can't guarantee that, especially with the way college basketball now works.  A true freshman could end up being the best player around (cough cough Anthony Davis).  I'd like to take a short look at the incoming recruits and their chances to become star players next season.

As I spoke about in Part II, there are some great incoming recruits to the Big Ten.  However, because of the layout of certain teams and differing levels of college readiness, I highlighted only a handful that I thought would be able to make a significant impact next season and become a star player.  The most likely candidates are Gary Harris (MSU), Sam Dekker (WIS), Glenn Robinson III (MI), Mitch McGary (MI), and Adam Woodbury (IOWA).  All of these players were some of the Big Ten's highest rated recruits according to the ESPN 100 and have a great opportunity to get early playing time.

Indiana has some fantastic incoming recruits as well, but as I said in Part II, I think because of Indiana's immense depth, they are going to limited in their contributions.  Yes, they will probably be fantastic stars by time they graduate, but for next season, I think their contributions will probably be a bit limited.  Along with that, just about all of these highlighted recruits should play early and will likely make an immediate impact to their respective teams.

Once again, I'm sure Michigan fans have spotted the interesting note about these recruits.  Michigan is the only team with more than one player in the five incoming recruits I've highlighted.  I highly doubt both Robinson and McGary will be amazing right away, but I think there's a great chance at least one, most likely Robinson, will be great next year and earn that star player status.  Other recruits like Gary Harris from MSU will also have an amazing opportunity to contribute early and often.  He's a big-time player and I would be pretty surprised if he didn't earn a starting role very early.

Altogether, I think it's pretty clear that Michigan will probably have the best star players next season.  Does that mean they will be the best team?  Not at all.  It certainly helps to have some big time contributors, but look at the NBA.  Miami probably has the best star players in the league, but they didn't win the championship last season.  Michigan should have the best star players, since it has some amazing recruits with a chance to start early and is the only Big Ten team to return two players with all conference honors.

Michigan Basketball Roster: Part I - Returners

There's been a lot of early speculation following the recent announcements of many of the Big Ten's best players, such as Trey Burke and Jared Sullinger.  Most have pointed to Indiana as the Big Ten's best team for next season, but much of that has just been early season hype.  Indiana will be returning a ton of talent, especially in Cody Zeller, but there certainly is no set formula for determining the good and bad teams.

With this in mind, I wanted to take a look at how Michigan stacked up in returners against the rest of the Big Ten.  Michigan has received a lot of hype as well, not as much as teams like Indiana, but most of the experts at least think they're going to be one of the elite teams in both the Big Ten and the country next season.  I agree, primarily because of the immense amount of talent that is going to be in Ann Arbor in both returners and recruits.  Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway, Jr., and Jordan Morgan will all be back next season.  These three players constitute the majority of Michigan's scoring and assists and also the team's leading rebounder.

Returning three starters, even if they were probably the team's best players, doesn't guarantee that Michigan will be as good or better than last season, but it should be interpreted as at least a positive.  Let's compare these returns to the rest of the Big Ten.  As of now, only four teams in the Big Ten will be returning their top two scorers, leader in assists, and leader in rebounds for next season (Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois).  However, let's dig a little deeper.  I wanted to quickly compare what each of these teams were actually bringing back.  For instance, Illinois.  They return five starters, but they finished 10th in the Big Ten.  What they're bringing back probably isn't as good as what teams like Michigan or Indiana are returning (1st and 5th in the Big Ten).  

	Michigan	Indiana	Minnesota	Illinois
Big Ten Record	13-5	11-7	6-12	6-12
Big Ten Finish	1st	5th	10th	10th
Postseason Ranking	#22	#13	NR	NR
Returning Starters	3	5	5	5
Returning All-Big Ten Players	2	1	0	1

* - All-Big Ten Players are counted as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd teams


Obviously, this chart has a lot of information, but the important thing is to separate the measures of team success and the returning aspects.  A quick glance at Big Ten record, finish, and final rankings clearly show that Michigan and Indiana had much better seasons than Minnesota and Illinois.  To most fans, this will be no surprise, but it's important to state before looking at returning rosters.  Returning successful teams and good players is much more valuable than returning players on bad teams.  This may seem obvious, but like I said, it's important to note.

So, that leaves us with Michigan and Indiana.  I would go through Minnesota and Illinois' returning rosters, but let's be honest.  They are returning pretty weak squads.  The one note that should be made is that Minnesota had some early seasons troubles including an injury to Trevor Mbakwe, which probably skewed their results somewhat.  Regardless, I think it's safe to assume that even with Mbakwe, Michigan and Indiana probably would have finished a good chunk ahead of Minnesota.

Indiana had a better NCAA Tournament finish than Michigan, but I think one can make a strong argument that Michigan actually had the better season.  Not only winning the conference championship, but also being more consistent than Indiana over the season.  I will give the edge in success to Michigan, even though Indiana's season had some very exciting moments.

However, Indiana returns all of its starters, which is pretty impressive.  Michigan returns most of its starters, but Indiana will be returning more from this standpoint.  To most, this is the reason why Indiana will likely be ranked #1 to start next season.  This is certainly a logical argument, but I think it skips over the connection that I described above.  Not only do I believe that Michigan had a better team last season, evidenced by their conference championship and better record, but I think if you take a look at the returning players, one can make a strong case for Michigan over Indiana.

For instance, look at the two teams' returning All-Big Ten players.  Michigan actually has more than Indiana with Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr.  Indiana will have just Cody Zeller back.  Along with this, one can make a case that Burke will be the best returning Big Ten player next year.  However, just looking at these awards, you can at least strongly point to Zeller and Burke as about even.  Indiana's only other player that received love from the media and coaches' awards was Christian Watford, but I don't think many would argue that he is better than Hardaway.

Indiana may have two more returning starters, but I think Michigan's returners are better than Indiana's returners.  This is certainly something that is debatable, but I don't think you can argue that Indiana will have three returners that are better than the three Michigan is returning.  Some might ask why this matters when comparing returners.  It comes down to the basic argument; quality vs. quantity.  Indiana's returners are certainly talented, but I truly believe that Michigan's are better.  However, as noted, Indiana will have more coming back.  Maybe less talented on average than Michigan's starters, but they will have more.

There's obviously no way to prove who has the best returners, but I think using the arguments I've made above, one can certainly make a strong case that Michigan will have the best returning roster in the Big Ten. This does not mean Michigan will have the best roster for next season, but it is exciting to see that Michigan should at least be in the top of the league in returners, recruits, and overall roster for next season.  It is sure to be an exciting season for Michigan basketball.


Photo Credit: UMHoops