Could Mark Donnal Be An Upgrade For Michigan?

An article composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports looking at whether Mark Donnal could actually be an upgrade at the center position for Michigan basketball next season.

My breakdown on Mark Donnal and whether he can actually improve the center position for Michigan - http://t.co/RSFPSThj5F via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) July 17, 2014

Big Ten Conspiracies: How The NCAA & SEC Ruined Michigan's 2014-2015 Season

A nice little joke piece looking at a conspiracy about Michigan basketball.  FYI, not serious.

Big Ten Conspiracies: How The NCAA Ruined Michigan's 2014-2015 Season (Satire) http://t.co/z98S8vjDUT
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) May 8, 2014

Jon Horford Transfer Thoughts

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

A piece composed for Wolverine247 of 247Sports analyzing the transfer announcement of Michigan basketball player Jon Horford and its impact on the Michigan roster.

Jon Horford Transfer Thoughts http://t.co/VBMCVNI9SM via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 11, 2014

Michigan's Worst Case Scenario - What If GR3, McGary, And Stauskas Leave?

Check out the full breakdown:

Michigan's Worst Case Scenario http://t.co/uSYglcI0YI via @247Sports
— Thomas Beindit (@tbeindit) April 10, 2014

Michigan & The NBA Draft - Caris LeVert; Mitch McGary; Glenn Robinson III; and Nik Stauskas

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Here is a full breakdown of each Michigan player's NBA stock:

Michigan & The NBA Draft

Horford Expects To Return For 2014-15 Season

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Check out the story and thoughts:

Horford Expects To Return For 2014-15 Season

Preview: Michigan vs. Long Beach State - Is McGary Ready?

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Michigan starts off in Pueruto Rico with Long Beach State:

Preview: Michigan vs. Long Beach State

2013-2014 Michigan Basketball Preview: Big Men

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Here's a look at what many consider to be the team's position of strength for this season:

2013-2014 Michigan Basketball Preview: Big Men

Michigan Basketball: A Scholarship Update

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

In early June each year, Michigan basketball begins offering the next cycle of recruits.  This June, Beilein and his staff began offering the class of 2015 recruits.  As of now, only a handful of recruits have received offers including Luke Kennard, Jalen Coleman, and Jalen Brunson.  However, something that is incredibly important, but often gets swept under the radar, is the scholarship situation.  Michigan has finished recruiting in the 2013 cycle, but the 2014 and 2015 cycles are in full swing, which makes this an interesting discussion.  So let's take a look at where things stand:

2014 Cycle:
Currently, Michigan is set to have 10 scholarship players for 13 open spots for the 2014-2015 cycle.  This means that the Wolverines can take up to 3 commits in the 2014 class.  As of now, Michigan has 2 commits in the class (Austin Hatch & Ricky Doyle) and 1 open spot.  With numerous offers out this begs the question of how Michigan will make room for potentially 2 or 3 recruits for 2014 class.  The clearest answer can be found on the current roster.  Mitch McGary and GR3 nearly left Ann Arbor following the 2012-2013 season for the NBA Draft.  In all likelihood this will happen following the 2013-2014 season, which would give Michigan 5 open slots for the 2014 and beyond.  With 2 recruits already committed, that means the Wolverines could add 3 recruits to its 2014 class assuming McGary and GR3 leave following the season as expected.  However, I'm not completely convinced Michigan will max out the scholarship slots for 2014.  Verdict: 4 member 2014 class

2015 Cycle:
As we get farther out in the predictions, things always become tougher to predict.  There are some major questions about how the 2014 class will end, but there are even more about the 2015 class.  If we continue using the verdict listed for the "2014 cycle" that means Michigan will start the 2014-2015 season 1 scholarship short.  This team would feature a bunch of seniors and Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin as sophomores with an even bigger chance of a jump to the pros.  It's hard to believe that the 2014-2015 season will end without at least one player jumping pro.  This brings the scholarship numbers to roughly 10 out of the available 13 for the 2015-2016 season.  It wouldn't be too difficult to imagine another person jumping pro or transferring, which would open up 4 slots for this class.  Many of the players look committed now, but if they aren't getting playing time in roughly 2 seasons and Michigan lands some big 2014 recruits, they may start looking around for playing time.  With this in mind, the class will probably end up around the same size.  Verdict: 4 member 2015 class

2016 Cycle:
If predicting the 2015 class wasn't hard enough, for some reason I've taken the challenge of looking at 2016, which is nearly impossible.  Using the predictions listed above for the 2014 and the 2015 classes (which will probably prove faulty), it would leave 3-4 open scholarship positions for the 2016 class.  This depends on whether one of the older players transferred or one of Irvin or Walton jump pro as listed in the 2015 description.  For this, we'll just assume that it was not a transfer and both Irvin and Walton jump pro.  This would leave Donnal as the only person on the current roster left for the 2016-2017 season.  This gives you an idea of how far we are looking into the future.  Along with Donnal, there would be 4 scholarship players from 2014 and 4 scholarship players from 2015.  So this leaves a class of 4 assuming none of the 2014 or 2015 recruits leave, which seems to be a virtual lock to occur.  For instance, if Michigan lands Devin Booker, will he make it through 2 full seasons and not jump to the NBA?  Seems unlikely.  With this in mind, here's a way too early 2016 prediction.  Verdict: 5 member 2016 class

Player Review: Mitch McGary

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Take a look at how McGary did last season:

Player Review: Mitch McGary

What If Evan Smotrycz Had Stayed?

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Over the last few weeks, I have been looking at some of the hypothetical situations that could have impacted Michigan basketball over the last few seasons.  First, I looked at what could have happened if Trey Burke had stayed committed to Penn State instead of coming to Michigan.  Then I looked at what could have happened if Darius Morris had opted to return for another season at Michigan.  This time, I am going to look at what could have happened if Evan Smotrycz had stayed at Michigan.

Smotrycz was not a great player for Michigan.  He played just two seasons for the Wolverines and failed to average 10 points per game in either season.  In his first season, he averaged just 17.8 minutes, 6.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists per game.  He increased those numbers in his second season to 21.1 minutes, 7.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per game.  So he wasn't great, but he was certainly a solid player.  The big problem he experienced in his sophomore season was that he often got put out of position in the lineup due to Jordan Morgan's foul trouble, which significantly limited his play.  I remember even joking during his second season that he had to have the highest foul to minute ratio in the Big Ten because he would often foul just seconds after getting on the floor.  So what would have happened if he stayed?  Let's take a look:

2012-2013 Season:
For as average as his contributions were to Michigan as a sophomore, I cannot express how big his return would have been for Michigan last season.  With Zack Novak gone, Mitch McGary in Ann Arbor, and Jon Horford back from injury, Smotrycz would have started from day one.  The lineup would have been: Morgan, Smotrycz, GR3, Hardaway, Burke.  Then McGary, Horford, Stauskas, LeVert, and Spike would have come off the bench.  Think about that.  That bench lineup would have probably done alright in the Big Ten and they would have been coming off the bench.

The big problem for Michigan's big men all season was that they were inefficient on the offensive end.  Well, Smotrycz was much better on the offensive end than the defensive end contrary to Michigan's other big men.  This would have given Michigan the offensive boost while also adding some size inside to help on defense and in rebounding.  Plus, GR3 would have been able to play his natural position.  McGary would have eventually moved in and started at the 5, but I'm not even sure Louisville could have slowed down Michigan's offense at that point.

2013-2014 Season:
At this time, we're really stretching this hypothetical situation, but it's hypothetical so why not?  This would be Smotrycz's senior year.  Assuming the same players leave after last year in this situation, that would likely give Michigan a starting lineup of: McGary, Smotrycz, GR3, Stauskas, Walton.  Then Irvin, Morgan, Horford, LeVert, and Spike would come off the bench.  For the second straight season, Michigan would have a fully capable bench lineup that could probably beat a few teams in the Big Ten.

It's tough to imagine this roster not going really far in the NCAA Tournament.  They would have a boatload of talent, experience, and depth across the board.  Every single position on the roster would be proven except point guard, where a 4* recruit would be coming to campus and Michigan would have a backup that scored 17 points in the national championship game (assuming this happened again).  I would also be hard pressed to see this team ranked anywhere outside of the very top of the preseason rankings and probably would have been higher than they even are now (Michigan - #4 by CBS & #10 by ESPN).

Overall
If Smotrycz had opted to stay in Ann Arbor, it certainly would have been a welcome addition to last year and this year's Wolverines.  Whether it would have ultimately changed the result remains to be seen, but with his size and his offensive weapons, things would have boded well for the team.  Of course, he did decide to transfer to Maryland and it will be interesting to see if Michigan is slotted to play Smotrycz in the 2014-2015 season for what will now be Smotrycz's senior season.  Interestingly enough, the only player that could be left on Michigan's roster who played with Smotrycz at Michigan would be Jon Horford as everyone else will have graduated, transferred, or went to the NBA from the 2011-2012 squad.

What If Darius Morris Had Stayed?

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Over the last week, there has been a lot of coverage regarding the Los Angeles Lakers, their rise to the NBA playoffs, then their subsequent collapse.  One of the key factors in this collapse was the massive amount of injuries the team suffered.  However, these developments were particularly interesting for Michigan fans because they were able to witness Darius Morris (former Michigan point guard) get the starting nod in the playoffs, which was not something many predicted to see this quickly.

Whether Morris did a good job in this position is up for debate (the Lakers got swept in 4 games), but it did get me thinking about the way Morris impacted Michigan.  Many have forgotten about Morris and the earlier Beilein teams due to the massive success in the last two years for Michigan and Trey Burke.  An NCAA title game appearance and a Big Ten Championship are pretty noteworthy and will make a lot of people forget about the past, but Morris was a pretty good player in Ann Arbor.

Morris was instrumental in not only getting Michigan back to the NCAA Tournament after missing it in the previous year, but also in a sweep of in-state rival MSU and a huge 1st round win against Tennessee in the tourney.  This may not sound that significant, but a sweep of MSU was actually pretty significant.  Not only had Michigan lost 4 straight games to the Spartans, but they had also lost 6 of the last 7 games against MSU and 10 out of the last 12 games.  Their last victory over MSU came in February of 2007 andthe 2002-2003 season was the last one that Michigan had a winning record against the Spartans and that was only a one game series, not a two game series.  The last season sweep for Michigan over MSU was in 1997.  Needless to say, these were two big wins.

However, after having an exciting year for Michigan with some big wins, Morris opted to jump to the NBA and was drafted by the Lakers.  Whether this was the right decision can be debated, but what could things have looked like if he had decided to remain in Ann Arbor.  Of course, his NBA draft pedigree would have likely changed, but what would have changed for Michigan?  Trey Burke came on campus the year after Morris left, won himself Big Ten Freshman of the Year, and then followed it with National Player of the Year.  This leads to some major lineup questions if Morris and Burke both would have been on one roster.

The 2011-2012 Season
This would probably have been the most interesting year if Morris would have stayed in Ann Arbor.  Trey Burke is a fantastic player.  You can make a strong argument that he was the best point guard in Michigan basketball history.  This is going to sway a lot of people into believing he would have won the starting role here.  However, this is a revisionist thought and represents something that wasn't know before or during the 2011-2012 season.  Why?  Because he was not the best player in the nation during his freshman campaign.

Burke was good as a freshman and maybe even great, but he certainly wasn't elite.  He should have been 1st team All-Big Ten as a freshman and he was the best player on the Michigan roster, but he still made mistakes and had some rough games down the stretch.  One of the biggest factors were his turnovers and risky outside shots.  He certainly had his moments and in some of the biggest games of the year, but he still had some major flaws in his game as a freshman.

Along with this, Morris had also entrenched himself as Michigan's starting point guard.  It's one thing to show up with little depth and take over the starting role, but another thing to come in and beat out the previous year's starter, especially when they're probably the best player on the team.  Morris was a good player the season before and there isn't much of a reason to believe he wouldn't have improved the next year, at least slightly.  I think Trey Burke is great and became better than Morris, but I'm not convinced that freshman Burke could have moved junior Morris from his starting spot.

However, this still would have given Michigan really good depth off the bench.  Burke would have certainly got some solid minutes and rightfully so.  I can even imagine Beilein bringing Burke off the bench to play alongside Morris at the 2 spot.  How cool would it have been to see a Morris backcourt pass to Burke for a 3 point shot?  Beilein has shown he's willing to think outside the box to utilize guys and this roster would have been a perfect example.

You also have to think that Michigan would have been right in the Big Ten title race, especially considering that Burke would have been the guy pulled off the bench to get the offense going again.  I certainly think the team would have done better near the end of the year as well with less wear and tear due to the massive playing times of guys like Burke and Hardaway.  Morris could have made all the difference and maybe we would have gotten a big tourney run a year earlier.

The 2012-2013 Season
Now, this is the area where it gets really speculative.  One would think that Morris would have jumped pro following the 2011-2012 season if he had not jumped originally after the 2010-2011 season.  This would have put sophomore Burke into the starting role and things would have probably been pretty similar to the roster makeup of the past season.  Maybe Spike is recruited, maybe not, but Beilein would have probably brought in a point guard regardless of Morris staying since many signs would have pointed to him leaving the next year.

If for some reason Morris would have opted to stay for his senior year all bets are off on what the lineup would have looked like for this season.  Morris would have gotten better certainly, but this would be the season where Burke was the national player of the year candidate.  We don't know if he would have still been at this level, but if he was this good, would Morris still be on the court more than Burke?  Sophomore Burke was better than Morris was at anytime during his Michigan career and even if Morris had 2 more seasons to improve, I'm not sure he could gotten to that level.  Burke was much better than he was as a freshman and I think you can
make an argument about freshman Burke against junior Morris, which implies how good of a player Burke was for Michigan.

Regardless, if Morris was on last year's roster, the team would have been insanely loaded and both guys would have got some solid minutes.  I can honestly imagine a Morris, Burke, Hardaway, GR3, and Morgan/McGary lineup for the last season.  Stauskas and LeVert would have come off the bench and Spike would have certainly been redshirted.  That is a really good lineup.  It's certainly not crazy to think Michigan could have beaten Louisville with Morris on the roster.

Overall
Morris obviously didn't stay, but it's still a fun topic to debate and breakdown.  How much of a difference would Morris have made by staying?  In my opinion, the main difference would have been during Burke's freshman year when he was still improving his game.  This would have allowed players to rest and probably would have made Michigan better at the end of the year when they had a discouraging collapse against Ohio State then Ohio in the NCAA Tournament.  Either way, both players should be in the NBA next year and maybe we'll get a chance to see them compete there.

Michigan Looks To "Size Up" In The NBA

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Michigan basketball hasn't been in good shape for a long time.  Entering the 2011-2012 season, the Wolverines hadn't won a Big Ten championship since the Reagan administration and hadn't made a Final Four appearance in nearly 20 years.  Over the last two seasons, Michigan has erased these deficits and truly returned the Wolverines to national relevance.
However, one of the gaps that still exists is in the NBA.  Michigan has produced a bunch of quality NBA talent during its history, but right now, that talent pool has largely dried up.  Though the NBA ranges somewhere between 360-450 players at a time (varies due to roster size), Michigan only has 3 players on NBA rosters.  Along with this, they only have 1 player who has been a major contributor; Jamal Crawford.

Sure, Darius Morris got the chance to start a few playoff games and Juwan Howard was on the Miami Heat when they won the NBA title last year, but neither of these guys are exactly all-star caliber right now.  I won't minimize the significance of making an NBA roster because it's extremely difficult, but in terms of evaluating Michigan's performance in the NBA, being a contributor or on the bench is a pretty big difference.  If the Wolverines really want to increase the strength of their program and its relevance at the national level, putting quality players in the NBA is one of the biggest steps.

The good news is that Michigan is set to take a big step this year in achieving this goal.  They only have two players in serious consideration for this year's draft (Trey Burke & Tim Hardaway, Jr.), but both of these guys are in good position to get drafted and make an NBA roster.  Burke has been projected as an NBA lottery pick and Hardaway appears aimed to go somewhere in the 2nd round.  That is not only a big jump for Michigan simply in the number of NBA players for the program, but also in the number of quality players.  Burke has a very high probability to start in his rookie season and although Hardaway will probably fall into more of a Morris role, depending on the team, he might be able to log some solid minutes.

What's also significant is that this year's draft should inject some youth into Michigan's NBA players.  Howard is certainly nearing the end of his NBA career and even Crawford was drafted in 2000.  That gives Michigan just one player on an NBA roster that has been drafted in over a decade.  This really doesn't matter that much year to year, but it definitely increases the odds of Michigan having solid players in the future considering the typical length of NBA careers.

Plus, to go along with what should be a great NBA Draft for the Michigan Wolverines this year, they have a bunch of solid NBA prospects on their roster next season.  Not only will Michigan have two players that would have easily been drafted this year (Mitch McGary & GR3), but they are adding Zak Irvin who has the potential to be a one and done type of player, adding Derrick Walton who could certainly be drafted in a few years, and have a few guys like Nik Stauskas who will probably get on an NBA roster at some point.  If things continue at this rate, Michigan is going to have a big presence in the NBA not just in the next year, but 5-10 years down the road.

Michigan has definitely been making positive steps in rebuilding its program.  They've been making the NCAA Tournament, winning conference titles, and winning tourney games.  Michigan has also drastically improved its recruiting and is now bringing in top talent.  The only thing left to take Michigan's program to the next level is increasing its role in the NBA.  The Wolverines are in a good position to start fixing that this summer.

2013 Michigan NBA Draft Hotboard

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Michigan's roster has been experiencing the full weight of the NBA and the NBA Draft since their National Championship game appearance against Louisville.  As of now, Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. have declared for the NBA Draft.  Everyone else has either made no inclinations of their desire to go to the NBA this year or verbally announced (McGary & GR3) that they would be returning to Ann Arbor next season.  Until April 28th, players can still declare for the NBA Draft, so things are not 100% guaranteed until then.  There are still many interested in not only the impact of those who stayed, but also the impact of those who left on the team and their status in the draft.  In order to help, I've made a short post that should keep you updated on what is going on with the NBA Draft and its relation to Michigan.

HMM Coverage:

• Analysis: Which Team Will Draft Trey Burke?
• Analysis: Which Team Will Draft THJ?
• Making the Case: A New NBA Draft
• Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft
• Quick Thoughts: Burke To The NBA
• Quick Thoughts: Hardaway To The NBA
• Quick Thoughts: GR3 & McGary Returning

National Coverage:

• ESPN: Trey Burke's Profile
• ESPN: Tim Hardaway's Profile
• ESPN: Mitch McGary's Profile
• ESPN: GR3's Profile
• ESPN: Trey Burke Enters Draft
• ESPN: Hardaway To Enter Draft
• ESPN: Case For Burke As The #1 Pick
• CBS: Trey Burke To The NBA
• CBS: Hardaway To The NBA
• CBS: GR3 and McGary Return to Michigan
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From Trey Burke's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From THJ's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From Mitch McGary's NBA Announcement
• UMHoops: Notes & Quotes From GR3's NBA Announcement

General NBA Draft Coverage:

• NBA.com
• ESPN
• CBS
• Jeff Goodman Mock Draft
• Chad Ford's Top 100
• Hoops Hype
• Draft Express
• NBADraft

Quick Thoughts: GR3 & McGary Returning

Photo Credit: Laura Pratt

Thank you!

Quick Thoughts: GR3 & McGary Returning

Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

It's an interesting draft year for Michigan.  Read about projections and predictions below:

Quick Thoughts: Michigan In The NBA Draft

Quick Thoughts: McGary Returning

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Check out the story on McGary

Quick Thoughts: McGary Returning

2014 PF Keita Bates-Diop Picks Ohio State

For many, Keita Bates-Diop had become the most desired prospect in Michigan's 2014 recruiting.  When I posted on him visiting campus a few months back, he was already receiving rave reviews from the scouting services and he has only went up from there.  He performed very well during the summer and to no surprise, had been receiving some major attention from multiple programs including Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin.

When I first talked about Bates-Diop, there seemed to be a few schools that were really recruiting him hard, but Michigan and Purdue definitely seemed to be high up on his list.  However, Ohio State got in the mix and really recruited Bates-Diop pretty hard and ultimately, recruited him very effectively.  He tweeted earlier today that he committed to Ohio State.  He is now Ohio State's only commit for the 2014 class and will surely do a lot for them in the coming years.

Michigan vs. Northern Michigan: Quick Reactions

So now that I've had a few hours to digest Michigan's first exhibition of the season, I think it's a good time to give some comments on what happened tonight, especially for those that weren't able to see the game.  There were a lot of expectations leading into the game and for the most part, I thought Michigan did a pretty good job living up to them.  Of course, nothing's going to be perfect during the first game of the season, but for a team losing two starters, two captains, and the team's best 6th man, they did pretty well.

I'll start with the obvious.  The starting lineup for tonight was Spike Albrecht, Matt Vogrich, Tim Hardaway, Glenn Robinson III, and Jordan Morgan.  Obviously, Spike only got the nod because Trey Burke was suspended for the first game, but it's still pretty significant for a true freshman who didn't have a lot of recruiting hype to start the first game.  I didn't expect Vogrich to start, but given that Mitch McGary doesn't seem fully ready (I'll cover this below) and Jon Horford is out with injury, it's not that surprising.  Vogrich was the best option at the time and he did pretty well.  The last three starters seemed pretty obvious and I projected them to start earlier this year.

Previewing The Roster: Jordan Morgan

One of the most consistent players over the last two seasons has been Jordan Morgan, the 6'8" center out of Detroit, Michigan.  Morgan will be a redshirt junior this season and may not have the same expectations as players like Trey Burke, who was recently named a preseason All-American, but many fans are looking for improved play from Morgan this season.  This will probably be the season with the most depth both at and around Morgan's position during his career, which means that he will have to battle for minutes, even if he ends up being Michigan's starting center, which I have already projected.

Morgan may have been on a better team last season, but that really didn't show in his numbers.  In fact, the majority of his production actually decreased.  He averaged 24.4 minutes, 7.3 points, and 5.62 rebounds per game during the 2011-2012 season.  In the season before, he average 0.4 fewer minutes, but actually averaged almost 2 more points per game and 0.3 less rebounds per game.  Arguably, a big piece of this was due to the emergence of Jon Horford, who got some significant playing time in the early season and actually started the first game of the season, but that kind of decrease is not what you like to see between a freshman and sophomore season, even if he did redshirt.  Of course, the team was better around him and there were more contributors, but if a guy averages more playing time, decreases on his points scored by a significant margin, and barely increases his rebounding, there are going to be some concerns going into the next year.