What If Evan Smotrycz Had Stayed?

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Over the last few weeks, I have been looking at some of the hypothetical situations that could have impacted Michigan basketball over the last few seasons.  First, I looked at what could have happened if Trey Burke had stayed committed to Penn State instead of coming to Michigan.  Then I looked at what could have happened if Darius Morris had opted to return for another season at Michigan.  This time, I am going to look at what could have happened if Evan Smotrycz had stayed at Michigan.

Smotrycz was not a great player for Michigan.  He played just two seasons for the Wolverines and failed to average 10 points per game in either season.  In his first season, he averaged just 17.8 minutes, 6.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists per game.  He increased those numbers in his second season to 21.1 minutes, 7.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 0.9 assists per game.  So he wasn't great, but he was certainly a solid player.  The big problem he experienced in his sophomore season was that he often got put out of position in the lineup due to Jordan Morgan's foul trouble, which significantly limited his play.  I remember even joking during his second season that he had to have the highest foul to minute ratio in the Big Ten because he would often foul just seconds after getting on the floor.  So what would have happened if he stayed?  Let's take a look:

2012-2013 Season:
For as average as his contributions were to Michigan as a sophomore, I cannot express how big his return would have been for Michigan last season.  With Zack Novak gone, Mitch McGary in Ann Arbor, and Jon Horford back from injury, Smotrycz would have started from day one.  The lineup would have been: Morgan, Smotrycz, GR3, Hardaway, Burke.  Then McGary, Horford, Stauskas, LeVert, and Spike would have come off the bench.  Think about that.  That bench lineup would have probably done alright in the Big Ten and they would have been coming off the bench.

The big problem for Michigan's big men all season was that they were inefficient on the offensive end.  Well, Smotrycz was much better on the offensive end than the defensive end contrary to Michigan's other big men.  This would have given Michigan the offensive boost while also adding some size inside to help on defense and in rebounding.  Plus, GR3 would have been able to play his natural position.  McGary would have eventually moved in and started at the 5, but I'm not even sure Louisville could have slowed down Michigan's offense at that point.

2013-2014 Season:
At this time, we're really stretching this hypothetical situation, but it's hypothetical so why not?  This would be Smotrycz's senior year.  Assuming the same players leave after last year in this situation, that would likely give Michigan a starting lineup of: McGary, Smotrycz, GR3, Stauskas, Walton.  Then Irvin, Morgan, Horford, LeVert, and Spike would come off the bench.  For the second straight season, Michigan would have a fully capable bench lineup that could probably beat a few teams in the Big Ten.

It's tough to imagine this roster not going really far in the NCAA Tournament.  They would have a boatload of talent, experience, and depth across the board.  Every single position on the roster would be proven except point guard, where a 4* recruit would be coming to campus and Michigan would have a backup that scored 17 points in the national championship game (assuming this happened again).  I would also be hard pressed to see this team ranked anywhere outside of the very top of the preseason rankings and probably would have been higher than they even are now (Michigan - #4 by CBS & #10 by ESPN).

Overall
If Smotrycz had opted to stay in Ann Arbor, it certainly would have been a welcome addition to last year and this year's Wolverines.  Whether it would have ultimately changed the result remains to be seen, but with his size and his offensive weapons, things would have boded well for the team.  Of course, he did decide to transfer to Maryland and it will be interesting to see if Michigan is slotted to play Smotrycz in the 2014-2015 season for what will now be Smotrycz's senior season.  Interestingly enough, the only player that could be left on Michigan's roster who played with Smotrycz at Michigan would be Jon Horford as everyone else will have graduated, transferred, or went to the NBA from the 2011-2012 squad.

Previewing The Roster: Blake McLimans

One of the fan favorites on the roster in recent years has been Blake McLimans from Hamburg, New York. He'll be a senior this year and despite making limited contributions during his career, he was an important piece for the Michigan team that won a Big Ten championship last season.  He's certainly not the most talented or the biggest contributor on the team, but bench players are a key piece of any team, especially for getting through some of the more difficult games mid-season.

One interesting thing to note about McLimans is that although he is a senior, he technically still has the option to come back for another year.  During his freshman season, he effectively redshirted, but with Michigan's incoming recruiting classes, it's pretty doubtful that he will be renewed for a 5th year.  This likely makes this year McLimans' last chance to make an impact at Michigan as a player.  Last year, McLimans actually played in 5 more games than he did the year before, but his total minutes and points decreased.  One could argue this was a step back, but part of it was the emergence of Jon Horford, which decreased his minutes, and the later injury of Horford, which meant McLimans played much of his time against the tougher Big Ten teams.  Despite these challenges, McLimans arguably improved his play and has the potential to be a solid player off the bench this year.

Michigan Basketball Now Faced With Big Transfer Problems

In an extremely unexpected move, John Beilein announced today that three members of Michigan's basketball team were leaving the program and planning to transfer elsewhere.  Typically, almost any program (especially a successful one with some great incoming recruits) has to endure some transfers.  However, this time, it was the individuals that decided to transfer that really took many by surprise.  Evan Smotrycz, Carlton Brundidge, and Colton Christian all decided to leave the team.

The big thing to mark here is that none of these transfers are program or team killing.  The team was not built around any of these three players and I don't think anybody would say any of these guys were the best on Michigan's current or future squads.  Having said that, these transfers are very significant.  You have one player who made major contributions this season, another plaery who was likely going to contribute big time next year, and a guy who, frankl,y shouldn't hurt too much.  The team is likely going to have to make some adjustments now if they want to be able to compete with the great teams next year.

The biggest challenge by far is going to be filling the void left by Evan Smotrycz.  He may not have started for the last several months of the season, but that's primarily because he was replaced by Stu Douglass (who will be graduated before next season).  Without Smotrycz, there is not really a guy who is going to be a great fit to fill the "4" spot on the roster.  Almost everybody assumed he was going to start and play significant time next season in the "4" spot.  This is a better and more natural fit for Evan and this was apparent when he was forced to play at the "5" this year because of Jordan Morgan's foul trouble and Jon Horford's season-ending injury.

In order to address his transfer, I'm assuming that the coaching staff is now going to have Mitch McGary play the "4" spot.  Most had McGary projected as playing center or the "5" spot on the roster, but I don't see how Morgan or Horford are going to be able to move down.  Perhaps Horford could play the "4" spot, but there's no way Morgan is going to be able to play anything but center.  The most logical solution to this problem would be to have McGary play the "4" and leave Morgan and Horford to rotate as the team's center.  This way Beilein can get Morgan and McGary on the floor at the same time.  Without Smotrycz and with Horford's season-ending injury, these guys should be "locks" for the best two "Big Men" on the team.

Michigan is finally going to be able to play "big" next season and this means Beilein is going to want his best "Big Men" on the court.  This should be, without a doubt, Morgan and McGary.  Since I, and I'm assuming most others, don't see Morgan as a "4", the coaching staff is going to have to play McGary there if they want two quality "Big Men" on the court at once.  McGary probably would have done better at the "5" spot, but without Smotrycz, I just don't see another option for Beilein at this point.

Now, addressing Smotrycz's transfer is going to be the biggest challenge of losing these three players, but Brundidge could leave a hole as well.  He was the closest thing Michigan had to a backup point guard for next season and without him, Burke is going to be forced to do what he did this year, play just about the entire game.  This may not have hurt Michigan too much this season, but Michigan was really looking for someone that could pick-up the slack for Burke when he needed it.  Brundidge was certainly the best option for this next year, but Beilein is going to have to look elsewhere next year.

These kind of losses may not seem significant, but if there was an injury to Burke (PLEASE NO!!!), Michigan fans would surely miss Brundidge.  Christian didn't really have a ton of significance for next year's team simply because he was deep on the depth chart and unlikely to get much playing time at all, especially with guys like McGary coming on-board, but Smotrycz and Brundidge's exits will certainly be factors.  Fans just need to hope that for the second year in a row Michigan will be able to replace a player that exited unexpectedly.


Photo Credit: AnnArbor.com

Michigan Basketball Ends Its Season

First thing first.  I realize this is a little bit of a delayed post, but #1, I wanted a little time to "cool down" so I didn't blame one player or one play for the team's loss and #2, it was St. Patrick's Day!

Anyway, back to the topic at hand.  Michigan showed its flaws on Friday night against Ohio.  As I said in my preview, this  Ohio squad was not a team that should be overlooked.  Michigan was undeniably the better team, but that didn't mean Ohio wasn't talented and capable of upsetting the Wolverines.  D. J. Cooper is certainly a talented player and he brought his skills to the floor on Friday.  He ended the night with 21 points and completed annihilated what had been a good defense up to this point.

Sure, Michigan only gave up 65 points in the game, which would still be pretty good compared to most of the country, but it was the way that they gave up those 65 points that made it so frustrating.  Ohio was well-defended by Michigan at times, but on numerous occasions Cooper or another player would just run around one player for an easy lay-up and 2 points.  One or two of those plays won't kill a team, but when you consistently give up those and are fighting for every point on the offensive side, it's pretty hard to win.

This trend is even more obvious with a quick look at the game stats.  Typically, during these type of "upset" games, the winning team will often have an insane 3 PT percentage or another stat that propels them to victory.  However, Ohio barely shot above their season average from long range.  They did shoot very well from the free throw line, but Michigan was putting some of their best shooters on the line, which doesn't help.  Plus, Michigan shot nearly the same percentage on the free throw line as well.  The fact that Ohio didn't have any insane trends in their shooting shows that they truly defeated Michigan and this wasn't just a fluke game.

Now, fans should be upset with what was a weak team performance.  However, the loss was not the fault of one single play or one single player.  I think the obvious scapegoat seemed was Evan Smotrycz because he had a few key miscues near the end of the game. Somehow, I guess people forgot the 15 points he earned with just 7 attempts and the 7 rebounds he had.  Blaming a guy who only missed one shot with 7 attempts, whether he had turnovers or fouls, just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

So, the game was a massive letdown.  Fans were disappointed and the players seemed disheveled near the end and after the game.  However, that doesn't mean Michigan basketball is dead.  I think after losses like the one the Wolverines had on Friday, it's important to remember the season's accomplishments and potential for next year:

2011-2012 Wolverines

• 24-10 Overall Record
• 13-5 Big Ten Record
• Won Big Ten Championship
• Received 3rd Bid In 4 Years For The NCAA Tournament
• Highest NCAA Seeding Since 1998
• Received A 2 Seed To The Big Ten Tournament
• Beat 9 Big Ten Teams (didn't beat Iowa)
• Beat MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Indiana
• Finished 3rd In The Maui Invitational
• Ranked The Entire Season

2012-2013 Wolverines

• 3 Returning Starters
• 4 Of Top 6 Team Scorers Return
• 11th Rated Incoming Recruiting Class
• All 3 Commits Are In the ESPNU 100

I think a quick look through those facts should make any Michigan fan excited.  Not only has it been a pretty remarkable season, but the team is set-up for a good run next year as well.  The team returns the majority of its talent and is bringing in players that are higher rated than the ones that are leaving or staying on campus.  For instance, for the majority of the season, none of Michigan's starters were rated above higher than a 3* out of high school.  Even Burke and Hardaway were only rated as 3*s coming into Michigan.  Michigan's next incoming recruit class has nobody ranked lower than a 4*.

That's a pretty big upgrade on talent.  Of course, as we've learned time and time again, recruiting does not automatically mean wins.  However, Beilein has been able to accomplish a lot with less "talented" players.  I mean, take a quick look at Ohio State.  Many of their current starters are 5* recruits.  Craft was only a 3*, but Sullinger and Thomas were both 5* recruits.  This is pretty significant because almost everybody on the Buckeyes was more highly sought than any of Michigan's players.  In fact, Thad Matta didn't even really recruit Trey Burke.  The fact that Michigan didn't just compete with the Buckeyes, but split the Big Ten Championship is pretty significant because of the talent disparity.

The bottom-line is that Michigan is in a lot better shape than it has been in a very long time.  Michigan has been and will continue to do some great things on the court, primarily because of Beilein's excellent coaching. I see no reason this team won't at least be a pre-season Big Ten favorite.  If not, they are sure to be predicted in the top two or three teams.  Even though Friday's loss was disappointing, there's a lot to be excited about when it comes to Michigan hoops.

Photo Credit: AnnArbor.com

Michigan Basketball Finishes The Regular Season

Well, Michigan has now wrapped up its regular season basketball schedule in what went from a blowout to a pretty close game with Big Ten bottom-dweller Penn State.  As I talked about in my preview, this wasn't exactly a trap game like Michigan has seen in the past this season, but it was certainly a team that had a chance to scare the Wolverines.  Penn State may have not been in the Big Ten championship hunt, but they certainly had a lot to play for in their final home game of the season.

Regardless, Michigan was able to beat the Nittany Lions 71-65 following a great performance by Evan Smotrycz.  Honestly, I was starting to worry that Smotrycz was going to fade into obscurity on this Michigan team.  He started the season off red hot and appeared ready to have a monster season, but his production faded as the year went on.  He has not played horribly this year and has had significant playing time in a lot of games, but he lost his starting spot to Stu Douglass and really has been non-existent since December.

Despite these struggles, he came out red hot against Penn State and finished with 17 points including a 86% shooting percentage.  Considering he had only been above 80% shooting in three games this season before this game with Penn State shows the significance of these numbers.  He had a great game, plain and simple.  I highly doubt he'll be able to keep up these insane numbers going, especially against better defenses, but it's still great news for a guy who had only made more than 50% of his shots in 3 of his last 18 games.

Along with this, Hardaway played pretty well and seems to finally be coming around in his shooting.  He may not be lighting up the place like he did last season, but he was very active at points and was not making the insane shot attempts he made during parts of the season.  The important thing is getting Smotrycz and Hardaway going and making good shot attempts when Michigan gets ready for its tournament run.

By now, I'm sure you've realized I skipped over the hot topic of the day and that's the Big Ten title race.  Michigan is currently 1 game behind Michigan State for the lead and if the Spartans lose, Michigan, OSU, and MSU will share the title in a three-way tie.  This may not be how most Michigan fans would want to win the title, but in my opinion, there's not really any other option than to root against Michigan State in this game.

I won't be throwing on a Sullinger jersey or grabbing one of those horrid buckeye necklaces, but there's no doubt it would be better for Michigan to split in this scenario than have Michigan State win.  Will it help Michigan's seeding?  Not really.  Our tournament seeding is pretty much locked up, but there's still a chance for a Big Ten title.  That hasn't happened since the 1980s and Michigan fans shouldn't hold ridiculous principles to prevent them from desiring that outcome.

Will I root for Ohio State to beat Michigan State today?  I'm certainly not going to be actively cheering, but I will say that I will be pleased if they beat the Spartans.  Frankly, splitting a championship is better than watching East Lansing celebrate.  In fact, you could even make an argument that if the Spartans lose today, Michigan and Michigan State are essentially even teams.  Granted, the Spartans will get a better seed and ranking regardless of today's outcome, but one can certainly make the argument.

So, don't start any Ohio State chants or start singing their fight song, but make sure you follow the outcome of the game taking place in East Lansing because it could have an enormous impact on Michigan's basketball program's growth.  Hanging a new championship banner is something to be proud of, whether it's a split title or not.  If Michigan splits, nobody can say we "backed" into this title.  We beat MSU and OSU earlier this season, just like both of those teams beat us.  Every team will be deserving.

I'm excited for the outcome, whether positive or negative, because this team is in a great position for a big finish and tournament run.  Michigan improved its record from last year, faced tougher teams, and appears to have finally crossed into that "top" Big Ten status.  They certainly aren't the best program in the Big Ten, but winning a title would help a lot towards that and Michigan's play has certainly put them in position.

Photo Credit: Angela Cesere

The 'Gameday' Of The Season: Michigan vs. Ohio Preview

So, to those of you who haven't followed basketball this year, Saturday is going to be sort of a big deal.  You might ask why?  Is it the fact that College Gameday, a Saturday morning ESPN show, will makes its first ever appearance at Crisler Arena?  Is it the fact that many consider this the most difficult remaining game on their schedule?  Is it the fact that a win would propel Michigan to having a great shot at its first Big Ten championship since 1986?  Or is it the fact that Michigan will put its undefeated home record on the line against its arch-rival?

The correct answer would have been all of the above.  This is the type of game the Wolverines have probably never seen before, or at least not in decades.  It is essentially a combination of all of the things that make college basketball great.  All the extra aspects of a rivalry game, media coverage, and fan excitement will be there, but fans also will get to experience a tightly contested game that has real significance for the conference championship.

Considering all of these factors, I think it should be quite evident that this game is pretty important for the season.  A win vaults Michigan into great position for a run at the Big Ten title and a great seed in the NCAA Tournament, but a loss could potentially derail the entire year.  Not only would the loss remove almost all possibility of winning the title, but the psychological and emotional impact on both the fan-base and team could be pretty devastating.  The team's mindset and poise has been great all year, especially at home, but this poise will be vital if Michigan wants to make a tournament run.

So, what does this really mean for Michigan?  This is a huge game for Michigan and the program.  Competing with conference powerhouses is significant, but winning is even more important if this program wants to stay with them.  A few months ago, I posted on the significance of Michigan's third win in a row over Michigan State.  Playing close games was not what restored that in-state rivalry.  Winning games against them is what did.  Ask anybody about how they felt after Michigan beat Ohio in November.  It only took one game to bring that rivalry back.  To me, this is a win that will cement Michigan's program as back.

The team is and certainly has been good, but it has never been great in a long time.  Sure, there's always debate about what's "good" and what's "great", but I think most can see the difference.  Michigan has a losing streak to Ohio dating back to January 3, 2010.  That doesn't seem like that long, but the two teams played five teams since then.  However, that's not the streak that's the most important here.  I mentioned that Michigan has not won a Big Ten title since 1986.  Since then six different schools have won titles.

Certainly Michigan has had success in basketball since 1986, but that mainly consisted of the Fab 5 era and tournament appearances here and there.  With the Fab 5 scandal, most of that success has literally been erased.  If John Beilein and this team want to validate the program, it will be through Big Ten championships and playing consistent basketball.  Tom Izzo and Michigan State haven't won a NCAA Title since 2000, but I don't think anybody thinks that's a bad program.  It's because they've made the tournament every year since then, won 3 Big Ten titles, and made at least the Sweet 16 five times.

It's consistent play that builds programs.  The most effective way to do that is to play well in your conference.  Not only does this give the team championships and recruiting dividends, but it's also correlated with better seeding.  Right now, Michigan is projected to be a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  A win over Ohio would probably assure them a 4 seed, assuming there is no late season collapse.  These kinds of differences are vital to building a program.  Michigan has made the tournament twice under John Beilein and won a game both times, but has never made a deep run.  Having advantageous seeding is crucial to making deep runs on a consistent basis.  For instance, last season Michigan came in as an 8 seed and had a good match-up in the first round, but then was scheduled against Duke in the next game.  If you're a 4 seed you don't have that game until much later.

Alright, so enough hype building up to this game.  We all should know what it means by now.  So, who's going to win and why?  I would break down these teams again, but I already did this before the previous game here.  The only significant changes from the previous game is the location and momentum.  Michigan has a lot of momentum coming into this game and the crowd should be roaring (it's a Maizeout) while Ohio is coming off a tough home loss to Michigan State.  If Ohio loses this game their shot at a Big Ten title likely evaporate.  Essentially, if either team wins they are in great position to win the title, but if they lose they probably have no realistic shot.

I think Ohio will play better than their last game against Michigan State, but Michigan has been unbeatable at home and with guys like Hardaway and Smotcryz finally making an impact again, I think they're going to be too much for the Buckeyes.  Surely it will be a close game, but I think the Wolverines are primed to steal this game.  Not sure if they can win the Big Ten title just yet, but I think they can win what has become the biggest game of the season.

My Magic Pick Is...


Michigan 68-67


Photo Credit: UMHoops

The Tale of Two Brothers: Michigan v. MSU Preview

After watching what seemed to be "upset Saturday" for the Big Ten, much of what was expected for Tuesday's match-up between Michigan and Michigan State changed significantly.  The game was expected to be a show-down between two of the hottest teams in the country, but after two losses, it looks to be two teams trying to regain their swagger.  Michigan lost a 75-53 "no show" against Iowa and Michigan State lost  81-74 against Northwestern.

Granted, Iowa and Northwestern have shown some promise in some games this season, but frankly, these were games neither team should have lost.  Neither Iowa or Northwestern were ranked and both teams entered with losing streaks.  However, in hindsight, these results may not signify any trend throughout this season.  Michigan was entering Iowa City with little rest and Michigan State faced Northwestern in what I would call a classic "trap" game.  Michigan State was ranked top 10, on a hot streak, probably looking forward to Michigan, and facing a Northwestern team that lost some close games to some tough opponents.

So, what does this mean for Tuesday's match-up between in-state rivals?  Well, the game's excitement level will likely be reduced slightly (not that I won't be pumped).  If neither team had lost, they would have entered the game with a combined 19 straight victories and both teams would have likely been either in the top 10 or very close.  This would have certainly been exciting, but it's still sure to be a great game on Tuesday night.

Michigan State has had an impressive run this season.  Turning what was predicted to be a rough season into a potential banner year.  However, Michigan is no slouch either.  The Wolverines are still 14-4 and have great potential for a good run this year.  In fact, Michigan has some tough opponents in its remaining schedule, but it gets Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State, and Purdue at home.  Certainly that's an extremely tough schedule, especially considering there's road games as well, but there's no reason to think Michigan can't win some of those home games, which would make for a sure tournament birth.

So let's match-up these teams and see who's better:

Offense
Although the stats make Michigan State appear to have a much better offense than Michigan, this may not tell the whole story.  Michigan State is averaging 76.8 points per game and Michigan is averaging just 69.9 ppg, but the way in which the teams score is quite different.  The most obvious way to see this is in their offensive attempts.

The first place to look is in field goal attempts.  Michigan State has attempted 984 field goals so far this season and Michigan has attempted just 922.  However, Michigan has attempted 400 three-pointers and Michigan State has attempted only 260.  That should send a message to anyone.  Michigan State likes to play interior basketball, while Michigan works its offense from the outside.  In fact, offensive rebounding also signals this difference.  Michigan State averages 11.8 offensive rebounds per game while Michigan averages just 8.8 rebounds.  With Michigan State's preference for interior basketball, getting these rebounds and "second-chance" points will be a key to the game.

I certainly would like to think Michigan's offense is better than MSU's, but that would be untrue, especially in this game.  Michigan State's interior play is probably going to expose Michigan's lack of quality "big men".  Michigan State averages significantly more points from the free throw line than Michigan and they are almost certainly going to get some key fouls Tuesday night.  With Horford's injury, Michigan is going to be limited to two big men (Morgan and Smotrycz) for most of the night.  McLimans is a decent player and has potential, but if he has to face off against Green consistently, Michigan will be in trouble.

Advantage: Michigan State

Defense
Once again, the raw stats imply that Michigan State will be better defensively, but I don't think they are quite accurate for this game.  Both teams are virtually tied for points allowed per game with 59.6 and 59.8, but Michigan State allows a lower percentage of shots to score than Michigan.  MSU allows 37.4% of field goals and 29.4% of three-pointers.  Michigan allows 40.9% of field goals and 35.1% of three-pointers.  This difference is typically not that important, but what is significant is that Michigan State has been pretty good at defending from outside the arc this year, which is key when facing Michigan and its three point offense.

Michigan State will probably do a good job at slowing down Michigan's three-point attack, but I see Michigan doing a good job with Michigan State as well.  When Michigan State had to face the 1-3-1 defense (Michigan's system) in Northwestern, they certainly struggled as they scored below their season average and lost.  Interior defense will also be key for Michigan and how they address Draymond Green.  They are probably going to have to either dedicate themselves to stopping him or stopping everybody else.

To me, both defenses are solid and should be set-up well, but I think Michigan's 1-3-1 defense will give Michigan State some trouble.  Even though Michigan has not looked fantastic in their last few games, they've allowed an average of 60 points per game (including the overtime win against Northwestern).  This is certainly below Michigan State's average of 76.8 points per game, which makes me think Michigan's defense will have the better night.

Advantage: Michigan

Intangibles/Crowd
Both teams will be entering the game after a disappointing loss on the road.  Michigan's loss was probably more disappointing and a worse overall, but I see little difference between the losses for this category.  However, this is a big rivalry game and will probably be significant in determining the conference championship.  Both teams appear in the conference race right now and a win would do much in propelling one towards that goal.

Michigan was able to sweep MSU last year, but these are not the same Spartans or Wolverines.  Much of the teams have changed and their abilities have certainly changed.  Regardless, both will be fired up for Tuesday's match-up, probably removing much of the lag from the Saturday losses.  The game is at Crisler, which should be maized out and rockin'.  Crisler has been lackluster for several games this season, but the team is still undefeated at home and this is a big game.  Ohio State may be the ultimate rival, especially in football, but the Michigan v. Michigan State basketball rivalry is a very big deal.  Home crowd and winning streak clearly go in Michigan's favor.

Advantage: Michigan

Overall
This should likely be a close game throughout.  If Michigan gets into early foul trouble, especially in the inside, MSU will have a significant advantage, but if Michigan is doing well at stopping Michigan State's inside offense and knocking down some threes, the Wolverines will be in good shape.  Look for a back and forth game that comes down to the final few minutes and some key free throws.  Michigan has been very good at hitting free throws late in the game, which may ultimately prove to be the deciding factor

I think Michigan is able to pull out the "W" in very tight fashion.  I fully admit that this game could go either way, considering the talent of both teams, but the only thing I think that gives Michigan the advantage is the location of the game.  Michigan has played great at home, especially defensively, and I expect that to continue on Tuesday night.  Let's hope the streak extends to three games in a row!


Prediction: Michigan 72-70 OT


Photo Credit: Melanie Maxwell

Michigan Basketball Finishing Non-Conference Play

With one game remaining on Michigan's non-conference schedule, Wolverine fans probably have a lot going through their mind.  Some things have been fantastic, such as the team's great performance in the Maui tournament, while others have been awful, such as the team's loss at Virginia.  Considering this, the fans should still have high hopes for Big Ten play and  a strong NCAA Tournament performance.

Thursday night's game against Bradley (5-5) @ 6:30pm should be an easy victory for Michigan.  Sure, there is always the potential for a loss and several non-conference "cupcakes" have given the team trouble this season, but Bradley is not a good team.  Along with this, the team finally appears to be taking shape.  Many people have pointed to Trey Burke as the surprise factor that has lifted this team, but I disagree.  So far during this season the player that has really surprised me has been Evan Smotrycz.

Smotrycz played well last season, averaging 6.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, but he was still a bench player and his contributions were limited.  In fact, he only played 20 minutes or more in two of Michigan's last 18 games.  Along with that, he only scored more than 10 points 3 times and never got more than 4 rebounds.  They were great number for a bench player and earned him Michigan's Sixth Man Award, but there were still some concerns.

Being a productive bench player is one thing, but it's another thing to be a productive starter.  For instance, Smotrycz had good production for a back-up, but a starter is expected to produce even more at a consistent level.  I'm sure most had high hopes for him entering this year, but his early struggles raised the concern flag.  He had two solid games to start the year against weak teams, but he was pretty mediocre for a long stretch afterward.  Even when he had good performances such as the game against Virginia, he ended up getting in foul trouble, which effectively erased his contributions and was a major factor in the loss.

However, he has really improved his play as of late.  Not only is he putting up more points, he's also rebounding better.  In the last three games, he's averaged 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds and had his first double-double in his career.  That's pretty impressive for him, considering he had a four game stretch earlier this season where he averaged 5.5 points and 5.8 rebounds.  Obviously, one can debate the level of competition in both cases, but that's a significant improvement in a short amount of time.  Whether his massive improvement is due to him settling into his new role as a starter is debatable, but the stats show he could be making that leap to another level, which Michigan fans hope to see continue.

Now, Smotrycz has been a nice improvement this season, but one thing really seems to be holding this team back from becoming the great team many envisioned and that's turnovers.  Michigan may not have been the best B1G team in turnover margin last season, averaging 10 turnovers per game, but they still had a +1.66 turnover margin and were ranked #5 in the B1G.  However, that has completely changed this season as they are averaging 14.6 turnovers per game and have a -2.66 turnover margin.

The reasoning behind this massive increase in turnovers can be debated, but it's likely because of Michigan's new freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Now, Burke has been superb this season, but he has been atrocious at turnovers.  I'm not saying this makes him a bad player, but it is definitely his weakness.  Right now, Burke has 33 turnovers, which is 11 more than anyone else on the team.  This doesn't mean he just be benched or even massively criticized, but I do believe it's the factor holding back the team from its full potential.

The best example of this was during the Oakland game.  Michigan thoroughly dominated the Grizzlies, but because of 17 turnovers (6 by Burke), Oakland was able to keep it close and ended up losing by just 10 points, a score that should not have been nearly that close.  Was Burke the only one responsible for the turnovers and close score?  Of course not, he only contributed six of the 17 turnovers and is only a true-freshman, but if Michigan hopes to make a solid run through B1G play and the NCAA Tournament, it's going to need to improve on its turnover margin.

There have been some bright spots and some bad ones during non-conference play, but I think Michigan brings a very talented squad into its final non-conference test against an over-matched Bradley at home Thursday night.  If Michigan can continue to utilize Smotrycz and reduce its turnovers as a team, it should be able to compete against a lot of big powers.  Watch for a significant margin of victory and a lot of play from the bench and younger players.

Photo Credit: Angela J. Cesere