Michigan Basketball Ends Its Season

First thing first.  I realize this is a little bit of a delayed post, but #1, I wanted a little time to "cool down" so I didn't blame one player or one play for the team's loss and #2, it was St. Patrick's Day!

Anyway, back to the topic at hand.  Michigan showed its flaws on Friday night against Ohio.  As I said in my preview, this  Ohio squad was not a team that should be overlooked.  Michigan was undeniably the better team, but that didn't mean Ohio wasn't talented and capable of upsetting the Wolverines.  D. J. Cooper is certainly a talented player and he brought his skills to the floor on Friday.  He ended the night with 21 points and completed annihilated what had been a good defense up to this point.

Sure, Michigan only gave up 65 points in the game, which would still be pretty good compared to most of the country, but it was the way that they gave up those 65 points that made it so frustrating.  Ohio was well-defended by Michigan at times, but on numerous occasions Cooper or another player would just run around one player for an easy lay-up and 2 points.  One or two of those plays won't kill a team, but when you consistently give up those and are fighting for every point on the offensive side, it's pretty hard to win.

This trend is even more obvious with a quick look at the game stats.  Typically, during these type of "upset" games, the winning team will often have an insane 3 PT percentage or another stat that propels them to victory.  However, Ohio barely shot above their season average from long range.  They did shoot very well from the free throw line, but Michigan was putting some of their best shooters on the line, which doesn't help.  Plus, Michigan shot nearly the same percentage on the free throw line as well.  The fact that Ohio didn't have any insane trends in their shooting shows that they truly defeated Michigan and this wasn't just a fluke game.

Now, fans should be upset with what was a weak team performance.  However, the loss was not the fault of one single play or one single player.  I think the obvious scapegoat seemed was Evan Smotrycz because he had a few key miscues near the end of the game. Somehow, I guess people forgot the 15 points he earned with just 7 attempts and the 7 rebounds he had.  Blaming a guy who only missed one shot with 7 attempts, whether he had turnovers or fouls, just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

So, the game was a massive letdown.  Fans were disappointed and the players seemed disheveled near the end and after the game.  However, that doesn't mean Michigan basketball is dead.  I think after losses like the one the Wolverines had on Friday, it's important to remember the season's accomplishments and potential for next year:

2011-2012 Wolverines

• 24-10 Overall Record
• 13-5 Big Ten Record
• Won Big Ten Championship
• Received 3rd Bid In 4 Years For The NCAA Tournament
• Highest NCAA Seeding Since 1998
• Received A 2 Seed To The Big Ten Tournament
• Beat 9 Big Ten Teams (didn't beat Iowa)
• Beat MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Indiana
• Finished 3rd In The Maui Invitational
• Ranked The Entire Season

2012-2013 Wolverines

• 3 Returning Starters
• 4 Of Top 6 Team Scorers Return
• 11th Rated Incoming Recruiting Class
• All 3 Commits Are In the ESPNU 100

I think a quick look through those facts should make any Michigan fan excited.  Not only has it been a pretty remarkable season, but the team is set-up for a good run next year as well.  The team returns the majority of its talent and is bringing in players that are higher rated than the ones that are leaving or staying on campus.  For instance, for the majority of the season, none of Michigan's starters were rated above higher than a 3* out of high school.  Even Burke and Hardaway were only rated as 3*s coming into Michigan.  Michigan's next incoming recruit class has nobody ranked lower than a 4*.

That's a pretty big upgrade on talent.  Of course, as we've learned time and time again, recruiting does not automatically mean wins.  However, Beilein has been able to accomplish a lot with less "talented" players.  I mean, take a quick look at Ohio State.  Many of their current starters are 5* recruits.  Craft was only a 3*, but Sullinger and Thomas were both 5* recruits.  This is pretty significant because almost everybody on the Buckeyes was more highly sought than any of Michigan's players.  In fact, Thad Matta didn't even really recruit Trey Burke.  The fact that Michigan didn't just compete with the Buckeyes, but split the Big Ten Championship is pretty significant because of the talent disparity.

The bottom-line is that Michigan is in a lot better shape than it has been in a very long time.  Michigan has been and will continue to do some great things on the court, primarily because of Beilein's excellent coaching. I see no reason this team won't at least be a pre-season Big Ten favorite.  If not, they are sure to be predicted in the top two or three teams.  Even though Friday's loss was disappointing, there's a lot to be excited about when it comes to Michigan hoops.

Photo Credit: AnnArbor.com

Michigan vs. Ohio (Bobcats) Preview

As announced earlier this week, Michigan will be tipping off against Ohio tomorrow night in their 1st NCAA Tournament game.  There's already been a lot of speculation about the game, primarily focusing on previous relationships and D.J. Cooper of the Bobcats, but this should be pretty competitive.  I'd like to predict that Michigan should dominant the Bobcats, but to be honest, they probably won't.  They will likely come out with their typical tournament intensity, which vaulted them to a record-setting win against Tennessee last season, but probably not enough to flat-out dominate the Bobcats.

So, let's get started.  D. J. Cooper is Ohio's best player by a significant margin.  Imagine Trey Burke, but if the other players had even less contributions.  He leads the Bobcats in minutes, points per game, assists, and steals.  That's pretty impressive for one player. Typically, a point guard will rank pretty high in these statistical categories, but he even does well in categories such as rebounds and blocks.  Regardless, when you take a quick look at the stats sheet, it's pretty obvious that Cooper is the primary contributor.

However, there is one aspect of the game that is a struggle for Cooper, and that's turnovers.  He may lead his team in steals with 2.4 a game, but he also turns over the ball 2.8 times a game.  Essentially, his steals give the Bobcats no statistical advantage because he gives it all up in turnovers.  Now, this doesn't mean that Cooper offers no advantage.  In fact, Trey Burke has the same turnover rate that Cooper has had this season.  So, possession-wise, Ohio is actually ahead of Michigan.

This is certainly an advantage for Ohio, which makes them very dangerous, but it's not the only important factor.  Ohio can score a lot and can play some solid defense, but I think the big challenge for them on Friday is to somehow find a way to score without relying too much on Cooper.  Ohio's faced a few tough teams this season, such as Louisville and Oakland, but I'm not sure that they've faced a defense as good as Michigan.  Statistically, Louisville's defense ranks pretty close to Michigan's (both teams give up about 61 points per game).  However, Michigan's had one of the most difficult schedules in the country, which obviously has an influence on these types of categories.

My prediction is that Stu Douglass will be asked to defend Cooper for much of the night and will turn him into a non-factor for the most part.  He will certainly get some points and make some plays, but I really don't see him tearing up the Wolverines for a ton of points.  With this in mind, expect Burke to turn the ball over a few times, but be able to make some plays as well.  I think this should be a pretty close game as both teams are probably a bit underrated, but Michigan should have enough to come out on top.

My Magic Pick Is...

Michigan 65-62


Photo Credit: Kirthman F. Dozier

Michigan Receives A 4 Seed To Face Ohio (The Real Ohio)

In a surprising twist, Michigan has been slated for a rematch against Ohio this weekend...no really, Michigan will be facing Ohio on Friday @ 7:20 PM on TNT.  Hopefully you realize that I'm not talking about the Buckeyes, but the Ohio Bobcats.  Of course, this is a great match-up because of the endless jokes Michigan fans can make about playing "Ohio" and using the "Beat Ohio" slogan, but that's not the only reason why this seeding helps the Wolverines.  Michigan may be a 4 seed, but their NCAA Tournament selection is actually set-up pretty well to make a deep run.

Now, the first thing to address is the debate over Michigan's seeding.  All the speculation last week and through the weekend was that Michigan would be picked as a 3 seed on Selection Sunday.  However, as we know now, that didn't happen.  This announcement surprised a lot of people, including myself.  Michigan seemed to have everything in place for a 3 seed, but two things seemed to have swayed the NCAA Selection Committee.  The first being Michigan's collapse against the Buckeyes on Saturday afternoon, losing by a score of 77-55.  The Wolverines didn't just lose, they got stomped.  I hate to admit it, but during that game, this team barely looked like it deserved a tourney bid, let alone a 3 seed.

However, as we all came to realize, that was just one game on one night.  Michigan has been pretty consistent all year and deserved a pretty good seed.  I think Michigan was still set to receive a 3 seed until Sunday afternoon, when Florida State upset North Carolina to win the ACC.  This was a pretty big accomplishment and I believe this is the game that vaulted them past Michigan and to a #3 seeding in the NCAA Tournament.  Basically, in my opinion, Michigan had a 3 seed locked up, even with the dreadful loss to the Buckeyes, but lost the spot because Florida State did great in its own conference tournament.

Was this the right choice?  It's obviously debatable and I think we'll see how Michigan and Florida State do in the tournament this weekend, but Florida State has some great wins and great momentum coming into the tourney, so it's not a surprise they were seeded above Michigan.  Regardless of whether Michigan is a 3 or a 4 seed, they have a good shot at going deep because of the region and teams in their bracket.  Michigan will be favored in their first two games (just like they would have been as a 3 seed) and as a result, a Sweet 16 finish isn't too crazy of a prediction.

Along with this, a potential 2nd round match-up with Temple is not that scary.  I think Michigan has a great shot at beating them and advancing to the Sweet 16 if they play each other.  At that point, Michigan would likely get North Carolina in a chance to go to the Elite 8.  If Michigan had received Florida State's 3 seed, they would likely be facing Ohio State instead of North Carolina (assuming they won their first two games as well).  Personally, I think the Buckeyes are every bit as good, if not better than North Carolina.  Sure, North Carolina has been great, but Ohio State is probably just as dangerous.

Now, Michigan will not be favored against the Tar Heels if they meet in the Sweet 16 round, but I certainly think they are beatable.  After that, there's no predicting who Michigan would play, if they even make it that far at all.  I think Michigan has a great chance to at least make the Sweet 16 with its selection.  Beating North Carolina is no easy task, but even if Michigan had a 3 seed they'd have to play Duke, Missouri, Ohio State, or Kansas, and personally, I think Missouri and Ohio State are just as good, if not better, than North Carolina.  When a team starts playing 1 and 2 seeds, there isn't exactly a lot of difference.

Basically, what I'm saying is that I think Michigan got a pretty good draw this year for the NCAA Tournament.  It may not have been everybody's dream, but match-ups with Ohio and Temple are certainly winnable and I think the Wolverines have a decent change to win them both and a decent chance at winning another game or two.  I'm not predicting a Final 4 run, but I think fans should expect Michigan to be playing in the second weekend of the tournament.  If not, I think we should be pretty disappointed.

Either way, this year's prospects are better than last year's #8 seed against #9 Tennessee followed by a 2nd round match-up with #1 Duke is a lot tougher than a game against #13 Ohio and #5 Temple.  Wolverine fans should be excited and I look forward to a good run this year.


Photo Credit: SportsChat