Previewing Big Ten Basketball: MSU

As we arrive in East Lansing, we are nearing the completion of this early preview series on the Big Ten.  I've talked about some teams that I think will play a big role next year like Indiana, some that should drop-off like Ohio State, and teams that should have little to no impact like Nebraska.  The Spartans present an interesting scenario for next season.  They have living Big Ten legend Tom Izzo as coach and haven't missed the NCAA Tournament since 1997, but will need to make some key replacements for next season.  MSU had its low points during last year, but ultimately entered the NCAA Tournament as a #1 seed and had a pretty decent tournament run, even considering the team's high seeding.


Expectations were low to begin 2011 and there weren't many out there that thought MSU would be a big factor both in the Big Ten and the nation.  However, as the season progressed, MSU really started to excel. They began the year with an 0-2 record, but those were against ACC powerhouses North Carolina and Duke.  MSU dominated following this poor start, winning the next 15 games, including their first 4 Big Ten games.  Many thought OSU would be the Big Ten favorite throughout all of last year, but after the first few games, MSU was certainly the front-runner.  OSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan all had losses in the first few games.  On the other hand, MSU was undefeated and had beaten Indiana and Wisconsin.  What made this even more impressive was that Indiana had already beaten OSU and Michigan as well.

Michigan Basketball Roster: Part IV - Best Roster In The Big Ten?

Photo Credit: iSports

Over the past few weeks, I've went through much of what will become Michigan's basketball roster for next season.  I looked at the returning starters in Part I, the incoming recruits in Part II, and analyzed which teams would likely have the best star players in Part III.  Now, I'm going to try to synthesize the knowledge and information in the earlier posts to determine whether or not Michigan will have the best Big Ten roster next season.

As I've consistently pointed out, these techniques are not always exact.  Yes, things like returning starters are pretty straightforward, but determining which incoming recruits will have an impact and which players will assert themselves as stars is a lot harder to do.  Perfect examples of these challenges are Robbie Hummel and Draymond Green.  Nobody expected a ton out of either player last season.  Primarily because Purdue and MSU hadn't been that good the year before and both players had some big question marks entering the season.  However, they both rebounded and had spectacular seasons.  You can analyze just about every piece of data or stat you can find, but, ultimately, it's going to come down to what happens on the court.

Having said that, let's take a quick look at the conclusions I reached in the earlier sections of this piece.  If you've read my first three posts, you would see the likely separation that should happen next season between Indiana, Michigan, MSU and the rest of the Big Ten.  Indiana has the best group of returning players, with Michigan close behind.  Michigan's recruits will probably have the biggest impact next season, with MSU close behind and Michigan will probably have the best star players next year, but Indiana and MSU has a chance to get some other players to develop into stars.

In most situations, the information above would make people support Indiana as the team with the best roster for next season, simply because they have so many solid players coming back to play next year.  However, in college basketball, this isn't necessarily the case.  Yes, returning starters normally help the team, but recruits and star players are making more of an impact than they have ever before.  Take a look at Michigan and Purdue last season.  Michigan's true freshman point guard, Trey Burke, had an enormous impact and carried the team to its first Big Ten Championship since the 1980s.  On a similar note, Hummel from Purdue carried what was otherwise a lackluster team to a solid NCAA Tournament appearance and a successful season.  Basically, returning a certain number of starters on any team isn't a guarantee for anything because of the impact one player can have on a team.

So where does that leave us?  It leaves us with a close Big Ten race between Indiana, Michigan, and MSU. That may not seem that specific, but when you're dealing with as many unknown factors as these teams have for next year, it's pretty hard to definitively say one team is going to be better than the other.  However, using the predictions I have made in my earlier posts, I would say that Indiana and Michigan have the best chance at winning the Big Ten.  These two teams are extremely close and the winner is probably going to be determined by how much Michigan's top two new recruits (Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary) develop next season.

Do I think Michigan will win the Big Ten Championship again next season?  I think they have a great chance at repeating.  I'm not willing to go out on a limb and "book" Michigan as repeat champions, but I see no reason why not to think they will at least be in the race until the end.  Indiana has a great team and has a lot of talent coming back, but the primary reason they're being selected as the Big Ten favorites is simply because they are a team that is more well known than Michigan.

Nobody knows how Robinson or McGary will fit in with Michigan.  They may even end up at busts over the next few seasons (hopefully not).  Personally, I think they are going to do pretty well with their roles next season, but like I said, it's an unknown for Michigan.  In fact, if Michigan's recruits live up to even most of their hype, I think Michigan may end up better than Indiana.  Not just because of these two players, but the fact they are returning more key players than any other Big Ten team.

Michigan Vs. Sparty (Round 2)

This season, the Big Ten title race's complexity has almost matched that of the US tax code.  In fact, with the leader changing on an almost weekly basis, games have been almost impossible to predict.  For instance, a few weeks ago Wisconsin seemed completely out of the Big Ten title race, but following 6 straight wins they're right back in the thick of things.  These drastic changes has made virtually every game important, especially since we are nearing the end of the season.

On Sunday, Michigan will enter one of its most important games on the schedule.  The Wolverines will travel to face Michigan State in the Breslin Center.  Michigan State is essentially tied with Michigan in the Big Ten race and the loser of this game will have a tough time making any run at the title (not that I really believe either team will win the Big Ten).  However, this game is significant not only for the Big Ten title race, but because it would mean a fourth straight victory over Michigan State for the Wolverines.

Earlier this year, I talked about how this rivalry had changed permanently.  Michigan is no longer a "weak" basketball program that Michigan State could beat up on.  This is a real team that had to be reckoned with.  Along with this, a victory for Michigan would mean that Michigan State not only got swept by Michigan again, but also lost two straight at home.  Michigan State rarely, if ever, loses in the Breslin Center (they're undefeated in Breslin this season) and two losses on their home court against their arch-rival would almost be unfathomable for the Spartan fans.

Michigan State may have more on the line this Sunday than Michigan, which is probably an advantage for the Wolverines, but both teams put a lot of stake into this game.  Winning this game would "lock" up a tournament spot for the Wolverines.  Even if Michigan lost the rest, I really couldn't see them not getting in with as impressive a run as they've had this season.  Having said that, this season does not depend on this game.  Michigan has a very impressive RPI right now and should get a great seed come March, as long as there is no epic collapse.  I'd say the main things riding on Sunday's game for Michigan are the Big Ten title hopes, a better seed, and pride.

I would re-do the breakdowns I did earlier this season for this game, but almost nothing has changed from the two teams first match-up, except the questions surrounding Draymond Green's status.  He was injured in the Spartans last game and although he is projected to play, nobody is quite sure how much he will contribute.  The home court will surely help the Spartans, but if Green is a non-factor their hopes for a victory are pretty low.  He is EASILY their best player; averaging not only the most minutes on the team, but also the most points, rebounds, steals and blocks.  Along with this, he also averages the second-most assists on the team.

To put Green's contributions in perspective, Michigan fans should imagine a player that is like Trey Burke and Zack Novak combined.  He not only is the unquestioned leader of the Spartans (also the biggest whiner), but he makes the most in-game contributions as well.  If he doesn't play on Sunday or plays and makes little contribution to the game, I think Michigan wins this game.  However, if he plays like himself I think the Spartans break the streak.  Michigan will make it close, but the Wolverines been pretty questionable on the road this year and the Spartans are dying to beat Michigan on the hardwood.

My Magic Pick is...

Michigan State 65-60 (assuming Green is himself)

Michigan 69-63 (Green injury a significant factor)

Photo Credit: Tony Ding

The Tale of Two Brothers: Michigan v. MSU Preview

After watching what seemed to be "upset Saturday" for the Big Ten, much of what was expected for Tuesday's match-up between Michigan and Michigan State changed significantly.  The game was expected to be a show-down between two of the hottest teams in the country, but after two losses, it looks to be two teams trying to regain their swagger.  Michigan lost a 75-53 "no show" against Iowa and Michigan State lost  81-74 against Northwestern.

Granted, Iowa and Northwestern have shown some promise in some games this season, but frankly, these were games neither team should have lost.  Neither Iowa or Northwestern were ranked and both teams entered with losing streaks.  However, in hindsight, these results may not signify any trend throughout this season.  Michigan was entering Iowa City with little rest and Michigan State faced Northwestern in what I would call a classic "trap" game.  Michigan State was ranked top 10, on a hot streak, probably looking forward to Michigan, and facing a Northwestern team that lost some close games to some tough opponents.

So, what does this mean for Tuesday's match-up between in-state rivals?  Well, the game's excitement level will likely be reduced slightly (not that I won't be pumped).  If neither team had lost, they would have entered the game with a combined 19 straight victories and both teams would have likely been either in the top 10 or very close.  This would have certainly been exciting, but it's still sure to be a great game on Tuesday night.

Michigan State has had an impressive run this season.  Turning what was predicted to be a rough season into a potential banner year.  However, Michigan is no slouch either.  The Wolverines are still 14-4 and have great potential for a good run this year.  In fact, Michigan has some tough opponents in its remaining schedule, but it gets Michigan State, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio State, and Purdue at home.  Certainly that's an extremely tough schedule, especially considering there's road games as well, but there's no reason to think Michigan can't win some of those home games, which would make for a sure tournament birth.

So let's match-up these teams and see who's better:

Offense
Although the stats make Michigan State appear to have a much better offense than Michigan, this may not tell the whole story.  Michigan State is averaging 76.8 points per game and Michigan is averaging just 69.9 ppg, but the way in which the teams score is quite different.  The most obvious way to see this is in their offensive attempts.

The first place to look is in field goal attempts.  Michigan State has attempted 984 field goals so far this season and Michigan has attempted just 922.  However, Michigan has attempted 400 three-pointers and Michigan State has attempted only 260.  That should send a message to anyone.  Michigan State likes to play interior basketball, while Michigan works its offense from the outside.  In fact, offensive rebounding also signals this difference.  Michigan State averages 11.8 offensive rebounds per game while Michigan averages just 8.8 rebounds.  With Michigan State's preference for interior basketball, getting these rebounds and "second-chance" points will be a key to the game.

I certainly would like to think Michigan's offense is better than MSU's, but that would be untrue, especially in this game.  Michigan State's interior play is probably going to expose Michigan's lack of quality "big men".  Michigan State averages significantly more points from the free throw line than Michigan and they are almost certainly going to get some key fouls Tuesday night.  With Horford's injury, Michigan is going to be limited to two big men (Morgan and Smotrycz) for most of the night.  McLimans is a decent player and has potential, but if he has to face off against Green consistently, Michigan will be in trouble.

Advantage: Michigan State

Defense
Once again, the raw stats imply that Michigan State will be better defensively, but I don't think they are quite accurate for this game.  Both teams are virtually tied for points allowed per game with 59.6 and 59.8, but Michigan State allows a lower percentage of shots to score than Michigan.  MSU allows 37.4% of field goals and 29.4% of three-pointers.  Michigan allows 40.9% of field goals and 35.1% of three-pointers.  This difference is typically not that important, but what is significant is that Michigan State has been pretty good at defending from outside the arc this year, which is key when facing Michigan and its three point offense.

Michigan State will probably do a good job at slowing down Michigan's three-point attack, but I see Michigan doing a good job with Michigan State as well.  When Michigan State had to face the 1-3-1 defense (Michigan's system) in Northwestern, they certainly struggled as they scored below their season average and lost.  Interior defense will also be key for Michigan and how they address Draymond Green.  They are probably going to have to either dedicate themselves to stopping him or stopping everybody else.

To me, both defenses are solid and should be set-up well, but I think Michigan's 1-3-1 defense will give Michigan State some trouble.  Even though Michigan has not looked fantastic in their last few games, they've allowed an average of 60 points per game (including the overtime win against Northwestern).  This is certainly below Michigan State's average of 76.8 points per game, which makes me think Michigan's defense will have the better night.

Advantage: Michigan

Intangibles/Crowd
Both teams will be entering the game after a disappointing loss on the road.  Michigan's loss was probably more disappointing and a worse overall, but I see little difference between the losses for this category.  However, this is a big rivalry game and will probably be significant in determining the conference championship.  Both teams appear in the conference race right now and a win would do much in propelling one towards that goal.

Michigan was able to sweep MSU last year, but these are not the same Spartans or Wolverines.  Much of the teams have changed and their abilities have certainly changed.  Regardless, both will be fired up for Tuesday's match-up, probably removing much of the lag from the Saturday losses.  The game is at Crisler, which should be maized out and rockin'.  Crisler has been lackluster for several games this season, but the team is still undefeated at home and this is a big game.  Ohio State may be the ultimate rival, especially in football, but the Michigan v. Michigan State basketball rivalry is a very big deal.  Home crowd and winning streak clearly go in Michigan's favor.

Advantage: Michigan

Overall
This should likely be a close game throughout.  If Michigan gets into early foul trouble, especially in the inside, MSU will have a significant advantage, but if Michigan is doing well at stopping Michigan State's inside offense and knocking down some threes, the Wolverines will be in good shape.  Look for a back and forth game that comes down to the final few minutes and some key free throws.  Michigan has been very good at hitting free throws late in the game, which may ultimately prove to be the deciding factor

I think Michigan is able to pull out the "W" in very tight fashion.  I fully admit that this game could go either way, considering the talent of both teams, but the only thing I think that gives Michigan the advantage is the location of the game.  Michigan has played great at home, especially defensively, and I expect that to continue on Tuesday night.  Let's hope the streak extends to three games in a row!


Prediction: Michigan 72-70 OT


Photo Credit: Melanie Maxwell