Expectations were low to begin 2011 and there weren't many out there that thought MSU would be a big factor both in the Big Ten and the nation. However, as the season progressed, MSU really started to excel. They began the year with an 0-2 record, but those were against ACC powerhouses North Carolina and Duke. MSU dominated following this poor start, winning the next 15 games, including their first 4 Big Ten games. Many thought OSU would be the Big Ten favorite throughout all of last year, but after the first few games, MSU was certainly the front-runner. OSU, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Michigan all had losses in the first few games. On the other hand, MSU was undefeated and had beaten Indiana and Wisconsin. What made this even more impressive was that Indiana had already beaten OSU and Michigan as well.
MSU did slow down following this great start in Big Ten play by losing 3 of the next 5 games, but until the end of regular season conference play, MSU was still in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title. In fact, MSU's performance over time is pretty interesting. If you look at MSU's regular season play, all of their losses really occurred during three short stretches. This shows how well they played, even though they did drop-off for short segments.
MSU ended up winning the Big Ten Tournament and entering the NCAA Tournament as a #1 seed. They did end up reaching the Sweet Sixteen, but were knocked out by Louisville. For most teams, this is a great finish, but it all depends on one's perspective. If one uses the NCAA Tournament seedings as a guide, which are obviously not always accurate, MSU should have reached the Final Four. If a team is a #1 seed, they are theoretically favored in every game until the Final Four. To me, if a team is a #1 seed, anything less than the Final Four should be considered a failure. A Sweet Sixteen is not something that warrants any real fan anger, but to me, this is something that does not get a lot of attention. Sure, teams like Michigan had a let-down in the NCAA Tournament, but if one uses the logic of the way the tournament is set-up, so did MSU.
Again, I'm not saying MSU had a bad season or that Tom Izzo and the Spartans should receive a lot of negative attention, but this is something that should be noted. MSU has often outperformed their seeding, but last season, they most certainly did not. Despite these thoughts and notes, the Spartans still won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles, which is a pretty big accomplishment and had a solid NCAA Tournament run.
Record
|
Big Ten
|
PPG
|
PPG Rank
|
Points Allowed
|
Points Allowed Rk
|
3pt%
|
3pt% Rk
| |
Michigan
|
24-10
|
13-5
|
66.5
|
8
|
61.5
|
4
|
35.0
|
8
|
MSU
|
29-8
|
13-5
|
72.3
|
3
|
59.3
|
2
|
36.2
|
6
|
31-8
|
13-5
|
75.1
|
2
|
59.8
|
3
|
33.3
|
9
| |
26-10
|
12-6
|
63.9
|
10
|
53.2
|
1
|
36.8
|
5
| |
27-9
|
11-7
|
77.3
|
1
|
66.4
|
10
|
43.1
|
1
| |
22-13
|
10-8
|
72.2
|
4
|
66.0
|
9
|
37.7
|
3
| |
19-14
|
8-10
|
69.5
|
6
|
68.2
|
11
|
38.6
|
2
| |
18-17
|
8-10
|
71.9
|
5
|
72.5
|
12
|
37.3
|
4
| |
23-15
|
6-12
|
67.4
|
7
|
64.8
|
6
|
35.6
|
7
| |
17-15
|
6-12
|
65.6
|
9
|
64.2
|
5
|
30.4
|
12
| |
12-18
|
4-14
|
60.9
|
12
|
65.6
|
7
|
32.4
|
10
| |
12-20
|
4-14
|
61.8
|
11
|
65.8
|
8
|
31.1
|
11
|
MSU returns a solid squad from its Big Ten Championship team. The Spartans not only return 3 starters, but also a All-Big Ten point guard and a member of the All-Big Ten freshmen team. Returning the majority of a successful team's starters is typically a recipe for success, especially when some of them are very talented and have the potential to do even more. A perfect example is Branden Dawson, who was forced to miss the end of the season due to injury. If the Spartans had Dawson during the NCAA Tournament, who knows, maybe they would have made the Final Four, he was a starter when he went out.
There are also a stable of new recruits and backup players that could make an impact next year. The Spartans are bringing in probably the Big Ten's best and deepest recruiting class for 2012. They have four commits and all of them appear on the ESPN100. All of these players are extremely talented and have the potential to make an impact both next year and in the future. Given Izzo's tendency to play the bench, recruits can even make a big impact before they become starters. On a similar note, MSU had a solid 2011 recruiting class, featuring three commits that may be set-up to contribute more this year. Despite a meltdown last year by Brandan Kearney, there's no doubt that he could be one of MSU's best bench players next year.
Despite MSU's solid returns from last year and their great incoming recruits, there is going to be a lot of uncertainty surrounding next year's team. The main reason for this is because MSU is losing 2 starters and have to replace Draymond Green, who was everything and more for the Spartans last year. He was the Big Ten Player of the Year and led the team in minutes, points, rebounds, steals, and blocks per game. Along with this, he was second in assists on the team with 3.8 per game (Appling led the team with 3.9). There really is no doubt that Green made the biggest impact for his team out of any player in the Big Ten. When a player can lead his team in essentially every major statistical category, that's pretty impressive.
Green's dominance even separated him from other great players in the Big Ten. Out of the 6 major statistical categories (minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks), only one player really matched up and that was John Shurna from 7th place Northwestern. Look at players like Jared Sullinger from OSU and Robbie Hummel from Purdue. Sullinger led his team in 3 of these categories and Hummel led in 4 of these categories. Green was the team leader in 5 of these categories, which again was really only matched by Shurna, who played on a bad team, which is why it will be so difficult to replace him.
Do I believe MSU will be a bad team next year? Absolutely not. In fact, I think they are going to be nearly as good as last year. However, losing their best player (by far), their starting sharpshooter, Brandon Wood, who played in 37 games last year, and relying on a recovering Dawson is not a perfect scenario. I said this in my Wisconsin preview and I will say it again, if a team wins the Big Ten, they will need a team leader and a star player. The Spartans have a few guys that might be able to fill those roles, but it is definitely uncertain. Keith Appling was an All-Big Ten player last year, but he was certainly not the Big Ten's best point guard and got a lot of help from Green. 2012 recruit Gary Harris may also make some noise, as he is considered by ESPN to be the best 2012 recruit in the Big Ten, but he is also an unproven high school recruit.
There certainly are some reasons to like MSU for next year, but the big thing that is holding me back is that without Green, MSU was not that good of a team last year. Obviously, this is useless statement, considering that this could be said about many teams in the Big Ten, but I just really don't see a lot of leadership and star potential for next season on MSU's current roster. The only way I think MSU is really in the race for the Big Ten Championship is if Dawson has a great recovery from injury or one of the recruits (cough cough Gary Harris) makes an immediate impact. If not, look for another year like 2010-2011. No way the Spartans will be as bad as they were during that season, but don't be surprised if they finish a decent way back if one of the scenarios I listed above doesn't happen. Regardless, I think somebody will step up, which I really think will be Dawson assuming he recovers well from injury and lead them to a respectable finish.
Michigan State Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 3rd
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Great
Upset Status: None (Too Good For Upset)
NCAA Tournament Status: Good NCAA Bid
There are also a stable of new recruits and backup players that could make an impact next year. The Spartans are bringing in probably the Big Ten's best and deepest recruiting class for 2012. They have four commits and all of them appear on the ESPN100. All of these players are extremely talented and have the potential to make an impact both next year and in the future. Given Izzo's tendency to play the bench, recruits can even make a big impact before they become starters. On a similar note, MSU had a solid 2011 recruiting class, featuring three commits that may be set-up to contribute more this year. Despite a meltdown last year by Brandan Kearney, there's no doubt that he could be one of MSU's best bench players next year.
Despite MSU's solid returns from last year and their great incoming recruits, there is going to be a lot of uncertainty surrounding next year's team. The main reason for this is because MSU is losing 2 starters and have to replace Draymond Green, who was everything and more for the Spartans last year. He was the Big Ten Player of the Year and led the team in minutes, points, rebounds, steals, and blocks per game. Along with this, he was second in assists on the team with 3.8 per game (Appling led the team with 3.9). There really is no doubt that Green made the biggest impact for his team out of any player in the Big Ten. When a player can lead his team in essentially every major statistical category, that's pretty impressive.
Green's dominance even separated him from other great players in the Big Ten. Out of the 6 major statistical categories (minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks), only one player really matched up and that was John Shurna from 7th place Northwestern. Look at players like Jared Sullinger from OSU and Robbie Hummel from Purdue. Sullinger led his team in 3 of these categories and Hummel led in 4 of these categories. Green was the team leader in 5 of these categories, which again was really only matched by Shurna, who played on a bad team, which is why it will be so difficult to replace him.
Do I believe MSU will be a bad team next year? Absolutely not. In fact, I think they are going to be nearly as good as last year. However, losing their best player (by far), their starting sharpshooter, Brandon Wood, who played in 37 games last year, and relying on a recovering Dawson is not a perfect scenario. I said this in my Wisconsin preview and I will say it again, if a team wins the Big Ten, they will need a team leader and a star player. The Spartans have a few guys that might be able to fill those roles, but it is definitely uncertain. Keith Appling was an All-Big Ten player last year, but he was certainly not the Big Ten's best point guard and got a lot of help from Green. 2012 recruit Gary Harris may also make some noise, as he is considered by ESPN to be the best 2012 recruit in the Big Ten, but he is also an unproven high school recruit.
There certainly are some reasons to like MSU for next year, but the big thing that is holding me back is that without Green, MSU was not that good of a team last year. Obviously, this is useless statement, considering that this could be said about many teams in the Big Ten, but I just really don't see a lot of leadership and star potential for next season on MSU's current roster. The only way I think MSU is really in the race for the Big Ten Championship is if Dawson has a great recovery from injury or one of the recruits (cough cough Gary Harris) makes an immediate impact. If not, look for another year like 2010-2011. No way the Spartans will be as bad as they were during that season, but don't be surprised if they finish a decent way back if one of the scenarios I listed above doesn't happen. Regardless, I think somebody will step up, which I really think will be Dawson assuming he recovers well from injury and lead them to a respectable finish.
Michigan State Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 3rd
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Great
Upset Status: None (Too Good For Upset)
NCAA Tournament Status: Good NCAA Bid
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