Michigan Basketball Starting Big Ten Play

After a non-conference schedule marked with great success at Maui and some questionable play in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, the Wolverines are finally entering Big Ten play.  They start with Penn State (8-5) tonight on Big Ten Network @ 7:30PM.  There should still be tickets available, but if you plan on going to the game, make sure to buy them quickly.

For the most part, this game appears pretty one-sided.  Penn State has five losses already this season, and looks like a team that will probably not only miss the NCAA Tournament, but probably the NIT Tournament as well.  Not only do they have five losses, but the majority of these losses have come from some pretty questionable competition.  Even when Penn State did face a legitimate opponent, Kentucky, they lost by 38 points and were completely handled at home.

Michigan should have the advantage on both sides of the court, but there is always potential for an upset and Penn State has a few young players that could have a great game tonight.  It's pretty unlikely they are able to get a lot of points on Michigan's defense, but let's not forget that Michigan has been far from a perfect team this season.  Turnovers and poor play in the paint have spelled trouble for the Wolverines this year and they could again tonight.

Offense

Neither team has an incredible offense, but Michigan has a sizable advantage on the offensive side of the floor.  Penn State is currently averaging 64 points per game, which is significantly behind Michigan's 71.7 points per game.  Granted, 7.7 points per game is not that large, but Michigan also has several more play-makers on the offensive side of the ball.

Tim Frazier averages 17.2 points per game and 7.2 assists per game for the Penn State, which is impressive, but he is the only Penn State player even close to these marks.  No other player on the team averages more than 10 points a game and no player other than Frazier averages at least 2 assists per game.  This is important because it shows Penn State has been forced to rely on one player for much of this season, which is never good.  For instance, Michigan has three players averaging more than 10 points per game and three players averaging more than 2 assists per game.  Michigan's diversified offense will have the big advantage over the Tim Frazier-driven Penn State offense.

Advantage: Michigan

Defense

This is another area where Michigan should have an advantage over Penn State.  So far this season, Michigan has been giving up about 60.8 points per game and Penn State has been giving up about 61.7 points per game.  Once again, this seems to be only a slight advantage for Michigan, but one has to look at the quality of competition.  Penn State has faced some tough teams like Kentucky, but the vast majority of their schedule has been unknown teams that frankly, aren't very good.

Michigan has also faced its share of push-overs, but it also had to face some tough teams in the Maui Invitational and a tough road game against Virginia.  Obviously, some of Michigan's opponents like Ferris State or Bradley aren't that great of opponents, but Michigan does appear to have a significantly tougher schedule than Penn State.  Both teams have solid defense, but Michigan should have at least a slight advantage, especially with the 1-3-1 scheme.

Advantage: Lean Michigan

Intangibles/Crowd

Both teams will be coming in with some momentum and confidence since Penn State has won its last two games and Michigan has won its last five, but the home court should help Michigan.  The environment will hardly be anything like playing at a place like Duke, especially since many of the Maize Rage will be at home for Christmas break., but I expect a decent crowd since it's the Big Ten opener.  However, it's still an advantage for Michigan, especially because they have been undefeated at home this season.

Advantage: Michigan

Overall

Fans should expect a relatively competitive gave for much of the first half, but when Penn State is forced to sit some of its players like Frazier, Michigan should be able to pull away.  Frazier typically plays for almost the entire game, but he will have to hit the bench for at least a few minutes, which will be a huge problem for Penn State's offense and likely sway the momentum in Michigan's favor.  Michigan will probably struggle in the paint at times as it has all season, but they should be able to win this game by a decent margin.

Final Score: Michigan 68-60

Photo Credit: Chris Dzombak

Michigan Basketball Finishing Non-Conference Play

With one game remaining on Michigan's non-conference schedule, Wolverine fans probably have a lot going through their mind.  Some things have been fantastic, such as the team's great performance in the Maui tournament, while others have been awful, such as the team's loss at Virginia.  Considering this, the fans should still have high hopes for Big Ten play and  a strong NCAA Tournament performance.

Thursday night's game against Bradley (5-5) @ 6:30pm should be an easy victory for Michigan.  Sure, there is always the potential for a loss and several non-conference "cupcakes" have given the team trouble this season, but Bradley is not a good team.  Along with this, the team finally appears to be taking shape.  Many people have pointed to Trey Burke as the surprise factor that has lifted this team, but I disagree.  So far during this season the player that has really surprised me has been Evan Smotrycz.

Smotrycz played well last season, averaging 6.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, but he was still a bench player and his contributions were limited.  In fact, he only played 20 minutes or more in two of Michigan's last 18 games.  Along with that, he only scored more than 10 points 3 times and never got more than 4 rebounds.  They were great number for a bench player and earned him Michigan's Sixth Man Award, but there were still some concerns.

Being a productive bench player is one thing, but it's another thing to be a productive starter.  For instance, Smotrycz had good production for a back-up, but a starter is expected to produce even more at a consistent level.  I'm sure most had high hopes for him entering this year, but his early struggles raised the concern flag.  He had two solid games to start the year against weak teams, but he was pretty mediocre for a long stretch afterward.  Even when he had good performances such as the game against Virginia, he ended up getting in foul trouble, which effectively erased his contributions and was a major factor in the loss.

However, he has really improved his play as of late.  Not only is he putting up more points, he's also rebounding better.  In the last three games, he's averaged 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds and had his first double-double in his career.  That's pretty impressive for him, considering he had a four game stretch earlier this season where he averaged 5.5 points and 5.8 rebounds.  Obviously, one can debate the level of competition in both cases, but that's a significant improvement in a short amount of time.  Whether his massive improvement is due to him settling into his new role as a starter is debatable, but the stats show he could be making that leap to another level, which Michigan fans hope to see continue.

Now, Smotrycz has been a nice improvement this season, but one thing really seems to be holding this team back from becoming the great team many envisioned and that's turnovers.  Michigan may not have been the best B1G team in turnover margin last season, averaging 10 turnovers per game, but they still had a +1.66 turnover margin and were ranked #5 in the B1G.  However, that has completely changed this season as they are averaging 14.6 turnovers per game and have a -2.66 turnover margin.

The reasoning behind this massive increase in turnovers can be debated, but it's likely because of Michigan's new freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Now, Burke has been superb this season, but he has been atrocious at turnovers.  I'm not saying this makes him a bad player, but it is definitely his weakness.  Right now, Burke has 33 turnovers, which is 11 more than anyone else on the team.  This doesn't mean he just be benched or even massively criticized, but I do believe it's the factor holding back the team from its full potential.

The best example of this was during the Oakland game.  Michigan thoroughly dominated the Grizzlies, but because of 17 turnovers (6 by Burke), Oakland was able to keep it close and ended up losing by just 10 points, a score that should not have been nearly that close.  Was Burke the only one responsible for the turnovers and close score?  Of course not, he only contributed six of the 17 turnovers and is only a true-freshman, but if Michigan hopes to make a solid run through B1G play and the NCAA Tournament, it's going to need to improve on its turnover margin.

There have been some bright spots and some bad ones during non-conference play, but I think Michigan brings a very talented squad into its final non-conference test against an over-matched Bradley at home Thursday night.  If Michigan can continue to utilize Smotrycz and reduce its turnovers as a team, it should be able to compete against a lot of big powers.  Watch for a significant margin of victory and a lot of play from the bench and younger players.

Photo Credit: Angela J. Cesere

A Bright Finish In Maui

Tonight will wrap up Michigan's trip to Maui with a game against UCLA starting @ 7:30pm ET (preview: here). Although many, including myself, were quite disappointed with Michigan's game last night, especially a mediocre first half where Tim Hardaway, Jr. appeared non-existent, I can't help but think this game still offers Michigan some great advantages.

Yesterday before the Duke game I talked about how simply playing in the 2nd round against Duke was a "Win, Win" situation. I voiced this belief because the added experience of playing a great team like Duke would benefit the Wolverines during the course of the season and I still believe it. Michigan may have fell to Duke by 7 points, but there were long stretches during the game where Michigan was on the attack and made Duke nervous.

Now, how nervous Duke really was can be debated, as Michigan was never able to take the lead, but when a team is able to compete with Duke in Maui (where they have been 13-0) one can't help but get excited. Michigan thoroughly dominated Memphis and even though it could be argued that Duke dominated Michigan, I think the slow start and poor play of Tim Hardaway, Jr. was what put the game away, not Duke dominance.

For instance, Michigan had several drives that would cut the deficit but Duke would be able to slow down or stop due to a great 3-point shot. I even posted on Hoke's Mad Magician's Facebook page that Duke was "killing it outside the arc." When a team is able to shoot from the 3-point line like that, not many teams are going to beat them, especially if you're talking about Duke.

Bottom line, there's no reason to be upset with the loss to Duke. They are a very good team who was playing very well last night. Michigan didn't play hard at first and it cost them at the end. Along with this, Michigan still has the game against UCLA tonight for 3rd place in the Maui tournament. If I had said last season Michigan would lose Darius Morris and still finish 3rd in Maui with teams like Memphis, Duke, and Kansas being there, you might think I'm crazy.

UCLA should be an easy win tonight and unlike what I said last night. Michigan doesn't need Burke AND Hardaway to show up tonight. Last night we needed both and only Burke came with full energy the entire night. If either or both have a big night, I think we can beat the 1-3 Bruins without too much difficulty, especially if the defense keeps playing the way it has at Maui.

Remember not to get too caught up in not winning the tournament and focus on the potential for this team. If Michigan wins tonight, they leave the tournament 2-1 and finish 3rd place against tough competition. We may have lost a game the team could have won, but it's not as if the season depends on Maui. This team will continue to prove and has already shown they can play with the "Big Boys" of the nation. I say expect a very solid Big Ten season.

Michigan Basketball A "Win, Win" Situation

When Zack Novak was given a technical foul after halftime in #15 Michigan's upset victory over #8 Memphis, you could almost sense the rising intensity of the team. A team that has been known in previous years for underachieving and breaking under pressure was not only able to match Memphis, but exceed their high level of play.

Today, in the second round of the Maui Invitational, Michigan must face #6 Duke, who has never lost in its previous 3 trips to Maui. In other words, this is going to be a challenging game for even this energetic Michigan squad.

However, fans should not be focusing on the tremendous task at hand today, but on the results of the contest and its implications down the road both during this season and in the future. This is the perfect example of a "win, win" situation.

If Michigan Wins:

So what if Michigan is able to do what no other team at Maui has ever done? If Michigan is able to handle the pressure of the big stage and Duke, I can hardly imagine the team fading as the year goes on. With 2 resume building wins in just November, Michigan would probably be a virtual lock to the tourney and would likely play a big role in the Big Ten and Big Ten tournament this season.

Along with this, Michigan would probably need people such as Trey Burke, the true freshman point guard, and Tim Hardaway, Jr. to step up. Although this might seem obvious, Hardaway has not made the impact in several games this season (he failed to score 20 points in any game this season until yesterday's match-up with Memphis). Along with this, Burke is needed to play well considering Darius Morris' departure to the NBA Draft last season. If these players are able to play well against Duke, they are probably primed to have HUGE seasons and vault Michigan to a great finish.

If Michigan Loses:

Well, this is the less exciting finish. I can hardly say I'd be excited if Michigan lost, but I can say that Michigan could be viewed as having a great finish to its Maui trip. Not many people around the country even saw Michigan hanging with Memphis, let alone beating them by 12 points. Along with this, winning a big game and playing in big games against tough opponents will help to build this team's resilience.

Michigan was a good team last year, especially late in the year, but it never seemed able to get over the hump against the top-level competition. Michigan lost three times against Ohio State, lost twice to Wisconsin, lost to Syracuse, and lost a nail-bitter to Duke in the 2nd round of the Ncaa tournament (it's technically the 3rd round, but we all know it's really the 2nd round).

Bottom line:

If Michigan wins, great. If Michigan loses, it's not the end of the year, in fact, this game alone will probably make the entire season better. Make sure to tune in and enjoy the game because I think it's going to be a close one with the way Michigan is playing defense right now, but make sure to remember.

This is a "win, win" game.

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit