Previewing Non-Conference: Preseason NIT

There are many early season opportunities for teams to get on the map, legitimize themselves, and help their seeding for the NCAA Tournament.  One of the most exciting opportunities is the Preseason NIT, which is an early season tournament involving 16 teams.  Not all of these 16 teams are legitimate opponents, but the top 4 seeds should be solid teams that should be able to do some big things this year.  These include Michigan, Virginia, Kansas State, and Pittsburgh.  All of these teams except Pitt made it to the NCAA Tournament last year and are in position for another solid year.

Michigan is undoubtedly the favorite for this tournament, but actually winning the tournament could be more challenging than many assume.  The Wolverines only have to win 4 games to get the championship and will be heavily favored through the first two rounds, but every game has the potential to be a trap.  Michigan's first opponent, IUPUI, will probably be blown off the map, but the next round matchup with Cleveland State should be a little more challenging.

Michigan Basketball Gets Early Season Opportunity

The Wolverines may not be heading to Maui Invitational like they did last year, but they have a great tournament opportunity for next season in Madison Square Garden.  The Pre Season NIT may not be the biggest or most publicized college basketball tournament, but it's certainly one that is respected and will feature some competitive teams.  This tournament is going to be key for Michigan because it gives the team one of its few chances to have some key non-conference wins to boost the team's tournament resume.

The big non-conference games on the schedule (outside of the Pre Season NIT) are Arkansas, West Virginia, and the Big Ten/ACC Challenge match-up (has not been announced yet).  Two of these games will be occurring in Ann Arbor and the other game, against West Virginia, will be played in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY.  All three of these games should be pretty competitive, but it's doubtful any of Michigan's opponents in these three games will be ranked, unless Michigan's ACC opponent is someone like North Carolina or North Carolina State.

Regardless of Michigan's ACC Challenge opponent, the point is still clear.  Michigan has very few legitimate non-conference opponents next season.  Sure, this isn't that unusual for Michigan or other teams, but for a team in Michigan's situation these are great opportunities.  Michigan will certainly be ranked very high to start the season and is bringing in a great roster with some highly regarded recruits, but the team still hasn't made a huge presence in the NCAA Tournament under John Beilein.  With this in mind, performing against top-notch competition should help to alleviate some of the concerns.

As I've pointed out, until Big Ten season starts, Michigan doesn't have a lot of opportunities to prove themselves against top-notch competition.  Yes, Michigan doesn't have to prove themselves as they did 5 or 10 years ago, but they still need to prove that they belong among the elite teams in the nation.  The elite teams in the country typically do well against the tough teams and get good seeding in the NCAA Tournament as a result.  Let's take a look at the teams that earned #1 seeds and how many non-conference games they had against ranked opponents.

	Kentucky	MSU	Syracuse	UNC
Non-Conference Ranked Opponents	3	3	1	2
Location of Games (Home, Road, Neutral)	2-0-1	0-1-2	1-0-0	1-1-0
Record in Games	3-0	1-2	1-0	1-1

*Only counts teams ranked at the time of match-ups. For instance, Indiana did not count as a ranked opponent for Kentucky.


Although one would expect a better record against non-conference ranked opponents, teams like MSU and UNC actually finished at .500 or below.  This is pretty surprising.  However, if one looks at the analysis of these teams, they can see that some of the opponents were teams like Kentucky and UNC, which ended up being #1 seeds.  The other interesting thing to note is that some teams like Syracuse were able to get by without a lot of these games.  Obviously, conference play is the most important factor in NCAA Tournament seeding, but scheduling these types of games does seem important.

After reviewing the table and this information, one may think that these games don't matter to the top NCAA Tournament seeds.  However, I think it's important to differentiate winning and losing these types of games.  For instance, look at the Kentucky vs. UNC match-up at the beginning of the season.  Both ended up being #1 seeds in March.  Does this mean the game didn't matter?  Of course not.  There's no doubt that the result helped Kentucky, it's just that it didn't hurt UNC much.  Look at the Virginia game for Michigan.  It helped Virginia a lot in their seeding, but it didn't really hurt Michigan much.  To me, this shows why it's a great opportunity for Michigan.  Even if they don't do well against tough non-conference opponents and the Pre Season NIT Tournament, they aren't going to be hurt much.  However, if they do well they're going to benefit much in March.

Perhaps I'm overemphasizing the important of these early season match-ups, but imagine if Michigan can win or do well in all of its major non-conference match-ups.  According to CBSsports, the Pre Season NIT Tournament will include Pittsburgh, Kansas State, and Virginia along with Michigan.  None of these three teams are predicted to be ranked in the top 25 to start the season, but all three of them have the potential to be very good.  If Michigan can pull out an early victory over Virginia, Pittsburgh, or Kansas State, it's going to go a long way towards establishing them for March.

Last season, Michigan's only legitimate non-conference win was against Memphis at a neutral site.  However, Michigan also lost on the road against Arkansas and Virginia, which brought them down.  Every one of these #1 seeds had a victory against a ranked non-conference opponent and I think this tournament offers a great shot for Michigan to do that.  If Michigan is able to do well, or win this tournament next season, I think they have a great chance at being ranked very high during the season and getting a great seed in March.  These types of games can't hurt a team, as one can see from the table above, but there's no doubt that it can help a team.


Photo Credit: FantasySP

Michigan Basketball Finishing Non-Conference Play

With one game remaining on Michigan's non-conference schedule, Wolverine fans probably have a lot going through their mind.  Some things have been fantastic, such as the team's great performance in the Maui tournament, while others have been awful, such as the team's loss at Virginia.  Considering this, the fans should still have high hopes for Big Ten play and  a strong NCAA Tournament performance.

Thursday night's game against Bradley (5-5) @ 6:30pm should be an easy victory for Michigan.  Sure, there is always the potential for a loss and several non-conference "cupcakes" have given the team trouble this season, but Bradley is not a good team.  Along with this, the team finally appears to be taking shape.  Many people have pointed to Trey Burke as the surprise factor that has lifted this team, but I disagree.  So far during this season the player that has really surprised me has been Evan Smotrycz.

Smotrycz played well last season, averaging 6.3 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, but he was still a bench player and his contributions were limited.  In fact, he only played 20 minutes or more in two of Michigan's last 18 games.  Along with that, he only scored more than 10 points 3 times and never got more than 4 rebounds.  They were great number for a bench player and earned him Michigan's Sixth Man Award, but there were still some concerns.

Being a productive bench player is one thing, but it's another thing to be a productive starter.  For instance, Smotrycz had good production for a back-up, but a starter is expected to produce even more at a consistent level.  I'm sure most had high hopes for him entering this year, but his early struggles raised the concern flag.  He had two solid games to start the year against weak teams, but he was pretty mediocre for a long stretch afterward.  Even when he had good performances such as the game against Virginia, he ended up getting in foul trouble, which effectively erased his contributions and was a major factor in the loss.

However, he has really improved his play as of late.  Not only is he putting up more points, he's also rebounding better.  In the last three games, he's averaged 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds and had his first double-double in his career.  That's pretty impressive for him, considering he had a four game stretch earlier this season where he averaged 5.5 points and 5.8 rebounds.  Obviously, one can debate the level of competition in both cases, but that's a significant improvement in a short amount of time.  Whether his massive improvement is due to him settling into his new role as a starter is debatable, but the stats show he could be making that leap to another level, which Michigan fans hope to see continue.

Now, Smotrycz has been a nice improvement this season, but one thing really seems to be holding this team back from becoming the great team many envisioned and that's turnovers.  Michigan may not have been the best B1G team in turnover margin last season, averaging 10 turnovers per game, but they still had a +1.66 turnover margin and were ranked #5 in the B1G.  However, that has completely changed this season as they are averaging 14.6 turnovers per game and have a -2.66 turnover margin.

The reasoning behind this massive increase in turnovers can be debated, but it's likely because of Michigan's new freshman point guard Trey Burke.  Now, Burke has been superb this season, but he has been atrocious at turnovers.  I'm not saying this makes him a bad player, but it is definitely his weakness.  Right now, Burke has 33 turnovers, which is 11 more than anyone else on the team.  This doesn't mean he just be benched or even massively criticized, but I do believe it's the factor holding back the team from its full potential.

The best example of this was during the Oakland game.  Michigan thoroughly dominated the Grizzlies, but because of 17 turnovers (6 by Burke), Oakland was able to keep it close and ended up losing by just 10 points, a score that should not have been nearly that close.  Was Burke the only one responsible for the turnovers and close score?  Of course not, he only contributed six of the 17 turnovers and is only a true-freshman, but if Michigan hopes to make a solid run through B1G play and the NCAA Tournament, it's going to need to improve on its turnover margin.

There have been some bright spots and some bad ones during non-conference play, but I think Michigan brings a very talented squad into its final non-conference test against an over-matched Bradley at home Thursday night.  If Michigan can continue to utilize Smotrycz and reduce its turnovers as a team, it should be able to compete against a lot of big powers.  Watch for a significant margin of victory and a lot of play from the bench and younger players.

Photo Credit: Angela J. Cesere

A Preview of Michigan v. Oakland (At The Palace)

If any fan 10 or 20 years ago was attempting to hype up a Michigan v. Oakland basketball game, they'd probably get some stares and jokes directed towards them. However, as of late, this has been a pretty intriguing match-up, specifically for those located in southeastern Michigan. Both teams are currently sitting at 6-2 and attempting to return to the NCAA basketball tournament.

Obviously the #19 Michigan Wolverines will be the favorites in this game, but Oakland is no slouch. Not only does Oakland have the same record as Michigan, but Oakland has also faced quality competition. Oakland opened their season with 4 road games including #15 Alabama and faced Tennessee at home. Though a few of these opponents weren't exactly "top" competition, Michigan fans certainly are aware of how difficult road games can be after the ACC Challenge. Michigan so far is 0-1 in true road games, so Oakland's 2-2 away record this season with some tough competition has to be respected.

Saturday's game will certainly be competitive, at least for most of the game, but Michigan is certainly the better team. Oakland has some great players such Reggie Hamilton and Corey Petros, but it's going to be tough for them to match-up with Michigan's significant talent and depth. If Michigan has success shutting down these players early, I'd find it hard to see Oakland taking away a win.

Along with this, this match-up is not a true road game for either team. The game will be held at the Palace of Auburn Hills (home of the Pistons) and will feature many of the maize and blue faithful in the stands. However, I think this will be a big turnaround for the Oakland fans. Facing an in-state ranked team like Michigan is sure to get Oakland fans and students excited. Plus, the Palace is within driving distance so there should be a fair amount there, even though Michigan fans travel well. There are still tickets left and you can get them here. If you're watching on TV, the game will be on FSN Detroit @ 4pm

Offense:

Oakland seems to have an offensive advantage, but how well they will score against a stingent Wolverines defense remains to be seen. Oakland is averaging 80.1 points per game and has 5 players averaging more than 10 points per game including Reggie Hamilton who averages 19.8 points per game.

I still think Hardaway is the best single offensive player on the court, but for Michigan to win, they are going to need to slow down this high-scoring team. Michigan averages 67.9 points per game and only has 2 players averaging more than 10 points per game including Hardaway at 15.9 points per game.

Advantage: Oakland

Defense:

Clearly, this is the area where Michigan has a major advantage. Oakland may be averaging 80.1 points in every game, but they are giving up 75.5 points per game. On the contrary, Michigan is averaging 67.9 ppg, but holds their opponents to 59.6 ppg. Obviously, Michigan's +8.28 is better than Oakland's +4.6 advantage.

This is the biggest spot for Michigan really to pull away in this game. If they can slow down Oakland and hold them well below their average points, I find it hard to see Michigan losing this one. Michigan needs to score to win the game, but if they can make this a defensive game, there's no reason to see a loss.

Advantage: Michigan

Predictions:

• Michigan is able to slow down the Oakland offense and Reggie Hamilton
• One surprise player for Michigan will have a big game, I'm predicting Stu Douglass
• Tim Hardaway, Jr. will come out hot and put up 20 points
• One of Oakland's starters will be in major foul trouble the entire game

Michigan 73-65

Photo Credit: Angela J. Cesere

Tim Hardaway Jr And Iowa State

Last Tuesday, the Michigan basketball team entered the Big Ten/ACC Challenge following a bright finish in Maui to face Virginia, a team that by most accounts would be over matched. However, in arguably the biggest surprise of this short season for the Wolverines, Michigan came out flat and lost to a team they should have beat.

There is really no other way to describe it. Although I stated in the Big Ten/ACC preview that Virginia was probably slightly underrated and would be a legitimate opponent, there is no way I believed Michigan would end up losing by 12 points. Michigan was simply too good of a team to let that happen.

Unfortunately, I and most Michigan fans were wrong. Due to a few early fouls from Tim Hardaway, Michigan played almost the entire first half without their star offensive player. Michigan stayed solid for most of the first half and only trailed by 1 going into halftime, but the big problem occurred when Hardaway came out flat in the 2nd half and Michigan players got into foul trouble.

Hardaway ended the night with 5 points. Completely unfathomable if I had described this Monday night. This was an unranked Virginia, Hardaway had put up 21 on Memphis and 19 on Duke. This was easily Hardaway's worst game of the season, but, as I stated in the game's preview, this first true road test for Michigan told a lot about how this season. This team will go as far as Tim Hardaway takes them.

There have been 2 games this year when Hardaway's performance has been pretty questionable (I will ignore games such as Ferris State because, well, it's Ferris State). Hardaway came out completely flat against Duke and was horrible against Virginia. Hardaway ended up with 19 points against Duke, but they ALL came in the 2nd half. You can't play top competition like Duke and have the best player on the team scoring 0 in the first half and hope to win. The same can be said about the Virginia game, except Hardaway showed up for even less of the game.

Now, my point is this. Michigan has lost 2 games this season, against Duke and Virginia. One game this team probably should have lost (Duke), but the other this team should have certainly won (Virginia). If Hardaway continues his practice of only showing up for some games, this Michigan team will not have the great season which has been predicted of them.

Burke has shown that he can really play and will be a major weapon, but if Hardaway doesn't show up in road games or for entire halfs, Michigan will not be able to beat the top competition such as Ohio State or Wisconsin this year. They will probably still make the tournament, but until Michigan, and specifically Hardaway, can turn this corner, I can't see the team going that far because this team simply can't score without Hardaway.

Iowa State (5-2) is a perfect chance for #14 Michigan to change the team's direction. Iowa State may not be the best team in the nation (lost to a 4-3 Drake, yes Drake, I have no idea who they are either), but they have 2 Michigan State transfers in Chris Allen and Korie Lucious. I think this alone will get the team fired up enough to get ahead of their poor performance on Tuesday. Along with this, the home-court advantage is going to propel them for much of the season.

Predictions:

• Hardaway and Burke both reach double-digits
• Morgan gets into foul trouble, but Horford bails him out
• Smotrycz leads the team in rebounds Saturday

Michigan 63-56