Quick Thoughts: Michigan Adds Duke To The Schedule

Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Michigan gets one heck of an opponent next season in Duke:

Quick Thoughts: Michigan Adds Duke To The Schedule

Michigan's Most Important Game In 2012 - 2013

As I've talked about extensively, this will be one of the most anticipated seasons in recent Michigan basketball history.  Michigan has been ranked in the Top 5 in both the Preseason Coaches' and AP polls and will be bringing in a Preseason All-American for the first time in years.  Along with this, Michigan will be bringing in a very highly touted recruiting class to help matters.  With these type of rankings and projections, there are going to be a lot of big games for the Wolverines this season.

But which game will be the most important for the 2012-2013 season?  Rivalry games are always huge, but so will match-ups with preseason #1 Indiana and the Big Ten vs. ACC game against #6 North Carolina State.  It's difficult to pick just one game, but I'm going to be attempting to do that today.  I will admit that I "coped out" so to speak and selected two games as the most important to this season, but I did make some notes about what each of these games will impact.  Some games are incredibly important to a single season, but others are more important to a program's long-term success.

Just take a look at Michigan football's 2011 season.  Yes, beating Ohio State for the first time in years was huge, but for that specific season, the win against Nebraska was actually much more significant.  It was a major factor in the Wolverines being selected to the Sugar Bowl and having the chance to beat Virginia Tech.  This year could be very similar.  There are a few games that could have some major benefits for the program, but might not be quite as significant for this given season.  So here's my list:

The "New" Big Ten vs. ACC Challenge

In today's somewhat surprising news, Notre Dame has opted to leave the Big East conference and football independence to join the ACC.  It's expected that all of Notre Dame's sports will join officially except for football and hockey.  However, Notre Dame will be playing five annual football games against ACC opponents, which is a departure from its traditional past.  Their football program has always maintained complete independence and "cementing" five games on the schedule will be something new.  It's not exactly crazy considering that Notre Dame is playing four games against ACC or future ACC teams this season, but it will definitely be something different in the future.  The ACC also doesn't have a hockey conference, so Notre Dame really didn't have a choice there.

So Notre Dame has joined the ACC.  Why am I posting on this topic today?  Well, Notre Dame joining the ACC is pretty noteworthy in itsel,f since they are one of Michigan's three biggest rivals, but the issue that I believe is being overlooked today is the future impact on basketball.  Notre Dame has a pretty respectable basketball program, having played in the tough Big East, made the tournament in 5 of the last 6 years, and had some impressive wins last year including a victory over then #1 Syracuse.

Michigan Gets North Carolina State In The Big Ten/ACC Challenge

Photo Credit: CBSSports

In one of the more anticipated announcements of the off-season for college basketball fans, the Big Ten and ACC announced the match-ups of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.  This pits the two conferences against one another in a twelve game challenge (one for each team) in an attempt to determine which conference is superior.  Obviously, it's not an exact science, but the two conferences usually do a good job at creating some exciting match-ups for the teams, conferences, and the entire nation.

Of the 12 games, three really shine above the rest.  Not to say the remaining nine games won't be exciting, but the top three games will certainly be more hyped and likely have more season ramifications for the teams and conferences.  One of the primary reasons that the Big Ten conference was considered the nation's best basketball conference last season was because of the conference's impressive performance in this challenge.  However, even though the Big Ten went 8-4 last year to beat the ACC, it wasn't the record that stood out., it was Ohio State's win over Duke by nearly 20 points that cemented the conference for the remainder of the season.  Basically, winning the big games can do wonders for the conference's image nationwide and with the selection committee.

As I described earlier, there are three "big" games in this year's Big Ten/ACC Challenge:

• #13 North Carolina at #1 Indiana
• #6 North Carolina State at #5 Michigan
• #8 Ohio State at #15 Duke

 
Certainly, there are other teams in the conference with exciting match-ups, such as Minnesota and Wisconsin, but it's pretty obvious that these three games rise above the rest, especially because these are the only ranked match-ups as of now.  Regardless, I'm sure everybody noticed that Michigan is included as one of the best three match-ups.  This should be pretty exciting for fans.  Michigan has never hosted a ranked team in the ACC Challenge and Michigan hasn't hosted a non-conference opponent of this caliber since January of 2011.

Along with the talent that North Carolina State will be bringing to Ann Arbor, it's pretty obvious that this will probably be Michigan's most hyped non-conference game in a VERY, VERY, long time.  Michigan has hosted teams like Duke, Kansas, and Syracuse in Ann Arbor over the past few seasons, but it was more of a potential upset game than a real match-up.  This will be the first time that Michigan is not only considered to be a contender against a team like this in a long time, but may actually be favored.

Michigan has faced some great teams at home over the last few seasons, primarily in Big Ten play, but there's a big difference in the excitement level depending on the status of the two teams.  Hosting a team like North Carolina State at home is pretty unique, but the chance of being favored against a team like NC State is something Wolverine fans are going to have to get used to in the future.  Personally, I would have rather played North Carolina or Duke, simply because it would have been a flashy match-up, but fans should be thrilled with this game being in Ann Arbor.

Michigan has faced North Carolina State twice before in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.  One of them was in Raleigh and the other was in Ann Arbor.  The teams split the two match-ups, with each team winning their home game.  This does little to predict the impending match-up of the two teams, but it does show a little history between the teams and hopefully a sign of a Michigan victory.  I'm very excited for this game and I'm just happy college basketball has the Big Ten/ACC Challenge to create great games like this that otherwise would probably not happen.

Michigan Basketball Gets Early Season Opportunity

The Wolverines may not be heading to Maui Invitational like they did last year, but they have a great tournament opportunity for next season in Madison Square Garden.  The Pre Season NIT may not be the biggest or most publicized college basketball tournament, but it's certainly one that is respected and will feature some competitive teams.  This tournament is going to be key for Michigan because it gives the team one of its few chances to have some key non-conference wins to boost the team's tournament resume.

The big non-conference games on the schedule (outside of the Pre Season NIT) are Arkansas, West Virginia, and the Big Ten/ACC Challenge match-up (has not been announced yet).  Two of these games will be occurring in Ann Arbor and the other game, against West Virginia, will be played in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY.  All three of these games should be pretty competitive, but it's doubtful any of Michigan's opponents in these three games will be ranked, unless Michigan's ACC opponent is someone like North Carolina or North Carolina State.

Regardless of Michigan's ACC Challenge opponent, the point is still clear.  Michigan has very few legitimate non-conference opponents next season.  Sure, this isn't that unusual for Michigan or other teams, but for a team in Michigan's situation these are great opportunities.  Michigan will certainly be ranked very high to start the season and is bringing in a great roster with some highly regarded recruits, but the team still hasn't made a huge presence in the NCAA Tournament under John Beilein.  With this in mind, performing against top-notch competition should help to alleviate some of the concerns.

As I've pointed out, until Big Ten season starts, Michigan doesn't have a lot of opportunities to prove themselves against top-notch competition.  Yes, Michigan doesn't have to prove themselves as they did 5 or 10 years ago, but they still need to prove that they belong among the elite teams in the nation.  The elite teams in the country typically do well against the tough teams and get good seeding in the NCAA Tournament as a result.  Let's take a look at the teams that earned #1 seeds and how many non-conference games they had against ranked opponents.

	Kentucky	MSU	Syracuse	UNC
Non-Conference Ranked Opponents	3	3	1	2
Location of Games (Home, Road, Neutral)	2-0-1	0-1-2	1-0-0	1-1-0
Record in Games	3-0	1-2	1-0	1-1

*Only counts teams ranked at the time of match-ups. For instance, Indiana did not count as a ranked opponent for Kentucky.


Although one would expect a better record against non-conference ranked opponents, teams like MSU and UNC actually finished at .500 or below.  This is pretty surprising.  However, if one looks at the analysis of these teams, they can see that some of the opponents were teams like Kentucky and UNC, which ended up being #1 seeds.  The other interesting thing to note is that some teams like Syracuse were able to get by without a lot of these games.  Obviously, conference play is the most important factor in NCAA Tournament seeding, but scheduling these types of games does seem important.

After reviewing the table and this information, one may think that these games don't matter to the top NCAA Tournament seeds.  However, I think it's important to differentiate winning and losing these types of games.  For instance, look at the Kentucky vs. UNC match-up at the beginning of the season.  Both ended up being #1 seeds in March.  Does this mean the game didn't matter?  Of course not.  There's no doubt that the result helped Kentucky, it's just that it didn't hurt UNC much.  Look at the Virginia game for Michigan.  It helped Virginia a lot in their seeding, but it didn't really hurt Michigan much.  To me, this shows why it's a great opportunity for Michigan.  Even if they don't do well against tough non-conference opponents and the Pre Season NIT Tournament, they aren't going to be hurt much.  However, if they do well they're going to benefit much in March.

Perhaps I'm overemphasizing the important of these early season match-ups, but imagine if Michigan can win or do well in all of its major non-conference match-ups.  According to CBSsports, the Pre Season NIT Tournament will include Pittsburgh, Kansas State, and Virginia along with Michigan.  None of these three teams are predicted to be ranked in the top 25 to start the season, but all three of them have the potential to be very good.  If Michigan can pull out an early victory over Virginia, Pittsburgh, or Kansas State, it's going to go a long way towards establishing them for March.

Last season, Michigan's only legitimate non-conference win was against Memphis at a neutral site.  However, Michigan also lost on the road against Arkansas and Virginia, which brought them down.  Every one of these #1 seeds had a victory against a ranked non-conference opponent and I think this tournament offers a great shot for Michigan to do that.  If Michigan is able to do well, or win this tournament next season, I think they have a great chance at being ranked very high during the season and getting a great seed in March.  These types of games can't hurt a team, as one can see from the table above, but there's no doubt that it can help a team.


Photo Credit: FantasySP

Michigan Basketball Starting Big Ten Play

After a non-conference schedule marked with great success at Maui and some questionable play in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, the Wolverines are finally entering Big Ten play.  They start with Penn State (8-5) tonight on Big Ten Network @ 7:30PM.  There should still be tickets available, but if you plan on going to the game, make sure to buy them quickly.

For the most part, this game appears pretty one-sided.  Penn State has five losses already this season, and looks like a team that will probably not only miss the NCAA Tournament, but probably the NIT Tournament as well.  Not only do they have five losses, but the majority of these losses have come from some pretty questionable competition.  Even when Penn State did face a legitimate opponent, Kentucky, they lost by 38 points and were completely handled at home.

Michigan should have the advantage on both sides of the court, but there is always potential for an upset and Penn State has a few young players that could have a great game tonight.  It's pretty unlikely they are able to get a lot of points on Michigan's defense, but let's not forget that Michigan has been far from a perfect team this season.  Turnovers and poor play in the paint have spelled trouble for the Wolverines this year and they could again tonight.

Offense

Neither team has an incredible offense, but Michigan has a sizable advantage on the offensive side of the floor.  Penn State is currently averaging 64 points per game, which is significantly behind Michigan's 71.7 points per game.  Granted, 7.7 points per game is not that large, but Michigan also has several more play-makers on the offensive side of the ball.

Tim Frazier averages 17.2 points per game and 7.2 assists per game for the Penn State, which is impressive, but he is the only Penn State player even close to these marks.  No other player on the team averages more than 10 points a game and no player other than Frazier averages at least 2 assists per game.  This is important because it shows Penn State has been forced to rely on one player for much of this season, which is never good.  For instance, Michigan has three players averaging more than 10 points per game and three players averaging more than 2 assists per game.  Michigan's diversified offense will have the big advantage over the Tim Frazier-driven Penn State offense.

Advantage: Michigan

Defense

This is another area where Michigan should have an advantage over Penn State.  So far this season, Michigan has been giving up about 60.8 points per game and Penn State has been giving up about 61.7 points per game.  Once again, this seems to be only a slight advantage for Michigan, but one has to look at the quality of competition.  Penn State has faced some tough teams like Kentucky, but the vast majority of their schedule has been unknown teams that frankly, aren't very good.

Michigan has also faced its share of push-overs, but it also had to face some tough teams in the Maui Invitational and a tough road game against Virginia.  Obviously, some of Michigan's opponents like Ferris State or Bradley aren't that great of opponents, but Michigan does appear to have a significantly tougher schedule than Penn State.  Both teams have solid defense, but Michigan should have at least a slight advantage, especially with the 1-3-1 scheme.

Advantage: Lean Michigan

Intangibles/Crowd

Both teams will be coming in with some momentum and confidence since Penn State has won its last two games and Michigan has won its last five, but the home court should help Michigan.  The environment will hardly be anything like playing at a place like Duke, especially since many of the Maize Rage will be at home for Christmas break., but I expect a decent crowd since it's the Big Ten opener.  However, it's still an advantage for Michigan, especially because they have been undefeated at home this season.

Advantage: Michigan

Overall

Fans should expect a relatively competitive gave for much of the first half, but when Penn State is forced to sit some of its players like Frazier, Michigan should be able to pull away.  Frazier typically plays for almost the entire game, but he will have to hit the bench for at least a few minutes, which will be a huge problem for Penn State's offense and likely sway the momentum in Michigan's favor.  Michigan will probably struggle in the paint at times as it has all season, but they should be able to win this game by a decent margin.

Final Score: Michigan 68-60

Photo Credit: Chris Dzombak

Virginia Tech, Not So Bad After All

Now that we've officially established what constitutes a "Hokie" and talked about the significance of Michigan's BCS bid, we can get into some serious football talk. Most Michigan fans, including myself, admittedly probably don't watch a lot of ACC football. When's there are dozens of games every week, including Michigan games, there probably isn't a lot of time to analyze random out of conference opponents such as Virginia Tech.

However, that doesn't mean one can't go back and analyze what Virginia Tech has accomplished this season. Let's start with some basics.

Virginia Tech

• 11-2 record (ACC Coastal Champs - Lost in ACC Champ Game)
• 55th in Scoring Offense (28.5 pts/g)
• 38th in Total Offense (415.8 yds/g)
• 14th in Total Defense (313.9 yds/g)
• 7th in Points Allowed (17.2 pts/g)
• 29th in Turnover Margin (+0.46)
• 51st in Strength of Schedule

So from looking at those stats what do could one speculate? Well, defense seems to be their strong suit. Their offense is far from horrible, but when a defense only allows 17.2 points on average, the offense doesn't exactly have to do a lot to win the game. Virginia Tech held 8 opponents this season to less than 20 points, which is a significant accomplishment.  For instance, Michigan was only held to less than 20 points twice this year (Michigan State and Iowa).

Although the defense appears to be quite strong, 7th in points allowed, 14th in total yards, and 17th in rush defense, the team's stats have been criticized because of Virginia Tech's "weak" schedule.  When I first started writing this article, I was under the impression that Virginia Tech had not only played few quality opponents, but were also blown out in against those teams.  However, after I took a deep analysis of the stats and schedule, I can no longer believe this argument.

When looking at a schedule, tend to take a quick glance for the number of ranked and "big name" opponents on a team's schedule.  However, this method does not yield accurate results for a team's strength of schedule.  Just because a team isn't ranked doesn't mean they aren't a quality team.  For instance, Notre Dame is not ranked, but they received the most votes in the rankings of any team outside the top 25 (effectively making them ranked #26) and played an extremely difficult schedule this year.

Using this logic, I attempted to make a more accurate analysis of Virginia Tech's schedule.  I did this by judging the number of opponents receiving votes or ranked, the number of teams with at least 6 wins, and the margin of victory in those games.

Virginia Tech Schedule Performance

• Number of Opponents Ranked or Receiving Votes - 5
• Locations Against Ranked or Voted - 2 Home, 2 Away, 1 Neutral
• Record Against Ranked or Voted - 3-2
• Margin of Victory Against Ranked or Voted - 8 pts/g

• Number of Opponents With At Least 6 Wins - 10
• Locations Against 6 Win Opponents - 5 Home,4 Away, 1 Neutral
• Record Against 6 Win Opponents - 8-2
• Margin of Victory Against 6 Win Opponents - 12 pts/g

After analyzing the actual games played against decent and quality competition, it's hard to still believe in the argument that Virginia Tech has played "nobody" and beaten "nobody."  Sure, they were only 3-2 against opponents who were ranked or received votes in the AP poll, but they still ended up outscoring those teams by an average of 8 points per game.  Along with this, both losses were against the same team, Clemson.  Two  losses against quality competition in which Clemson outscored Virginia Tech by an average of 24 pts/g is hardly impressive or excusable, but one can't help but speculate.

Perhaps Clemson was just a bad match-up for Virginia Tech this season?  It is rare, but sometimes there just seems to be 1 or 2 teams that a certain team cannot beat just because of certain match-ups.  I'm not going to claim this was the case for Virginia Tech against Clemson, but the rest of their season and these two games just don't add up.  How does a team handle or blow out quality opponents at home and on the road (Arkansas State, Georgia Tech, Virginia) and then get blown out against #15 Clemson?  There are many reasons to explain this including a poor match-up, but I go with a different reasoning.

I think the reason Virginia Tech did so well against other quality opponents and so bad against Clemson is simply because they aren't an "elite" team.  Is Virginia Tech as bad as some of the pundits would make it seem?  Not even close.  Their performance this season against both decent and quality teams showcases their talent and ability, but their massive let-downs against Clemson also shows they are vulnerable.

Not only using my analysis, but using advanced stats provided by Football Outsiders, one can see Virginia Tech is at least a decent team.  FEI ranking, which is what Football Outsiders uses, analyzes not only wins and losses, but who and what causes each loss.  If a team loses to a bad opponent, they are punished in the FEI rankings much more than losing to a good team.  Basically, they do the type of break-downs I did above, except using a computer formula.  They have Virginia Tech ranked as #20 in the nation.  This is pretty far behind their #11 BCS ranking, but relatively near their #17 AP poll ranking.

After a long analysis, I think Virginia Tech falls in roughly this range.  They are a 15-20 ranked team that managed to make a BCS bowl due to some luck and flaws in the polls (Coaches had them at #11).  However, they are no push-over team.  They may not be "elite," but they will certainly pose a challenge for Michigan in the Sugar Bowl.  Just for a comparison, Notre Dame is ranked #21 in the FEI ranking.  So essentially, Michigan is going to be facing a team roughly as good as Notre Dame was this season and I think we all remember that game...

Photo Credit: Getty Images

A Preview of Michigan v. Oakland (At The Palace)

If any fan 10 or 20 years ago was attempting to hype up a Michigan v. Oakland basketball game, they'd probably get some stares and jokes directed towards them. However, as of late, this has been a pretty intriguing match-up, specifically for those located in southeastern Michigan. Both teams are currently sitting at 6-2 and attempting to return to the NCAA basketball tournament.

Obviously the #19 Michigan Wolverines will be the favorites in this game, but Oakland is no slouch. Not only does Oakland have the same record as Michigan, but Oakland has also faced quality competition. Oakland opened their season with 4 road games including #15 Alabama and faced Tennessee at home. Though a few of these opponents weren't exactly "top" competition, Michigan fans certainly are aware of how difficult road games can be after the ACC Challenge. Michigan so far is 0-1 in true road games, so Oakland's 2-2 away record this season with some tough competition has to be respected.

Saturday's game will certainly be competitive, at least for most of the game, but Michigan is certainly the better team. Oakland has some great players such Reggie Hamilton and Corey Petros, but it's going to be tough for them to match-up with Michigan's significant talent and depth. If Michigan has success shutting down these players early, I'd find it hard to see Oakland taking away a win.

Along with this, this match-up is not a true road game for either team. The game will be held at the Palace of Auburn Hills (home of the Pistons) and will feature many of the maize and blue faithful in the stands. However, I think this will be a big turnaround for the Oakland fans. Facing an in-state ranked team like Michigan is sure to get Oakland fans and students excited. Plus, the Palace is within driving distance so there should be a fair amount there, even though Michigan fans travel well. There are still tickets left and you can get them here. If you're watching on TV, the game will be on FSN Detroit @ 4pm

Offense:

Oakland seems to have an offensive advantage, but how well they will score against a stingent Wolverines defense remains to be seen. Oakland is averaging 80.1 points per game and has 5 players averaging more than 10 points per game including Reggie Hamilton who averages 19.8 points per game.

I still think Hardaway is the best single offensive player on the court, but for Michigan to win, they are going to need to slow down this high-scoring team. Michigan averages 67.9 points per game and only has 2 players averaging more than 10 points per game including Hardaway at 15.9 points per game.

Advantage: Oakland

Defense:

Clearly, this is the area where Michigan has a major advantage. Oakland may be averaging 80.1 points in every game, but they are giving up 75.5 points per game. On the contrary, Michigan is averaging 67.9 ppg, but holds their opponents to 59.6 ppg. Obviously, Michigan's +8.28 is better than Oakland's +4.6 advantage.

This is the biggest spot for Michigan really to pull away in this game. If they can slow down Oakland and hold them well below their average points, I find it hard to see Michigan losing this one. Michigan needs to score to win the game, but if they can make this a defensive game, there's no reason to see a loss.

Advantage: Michigan

Predictions:

• Michigan is able to slow down the Oakland offense and Reggie Hamilton
• One surprise player for Michigan will have a big game, I'm predicting Stu Douglass
• Tim Hardaway, Jr. will come out hot and put up 20 points
• One of Oakland's starters will be in major foul trouble the entire game

Michigan 73-65

Photo Credit: Angela J. Cesere

Tim Hardaway Jr And Iowa State

Last Tuesday, the Michigan basketball team entered the Big Ten/ACC Challenge following a bright finish in Maui to face Virginia, a team that by most accounts would be over matched. However, in arguably the biggest surprise of this short season for the Wolverines, Michigan came out flat and lost to a team they should have beat.

There is really no other way to describe it. Although I stated in the Big Ten/ACC preview that Virginia was probably slightly underrated and would be a legitimate opponent, there is no way I believed Michigan would end up losing by 12 points. Michigan was simply too good of a team to let that happen.

Unfortunately, I and most Michigan fans were wrong. Due to a few early fouls from Tim Hardaway, Michigan played almost the entire first half without their star offensive player. Michigan stayed solid for most of the first half and only trailed by 1 going into halftime, but the big problem occurred when Hardaway came out flat in the 2nd half and Michigan players got into foul trouble.

Hardaway ended the night with 5 points. Completely unfathomable if I had described this Monday night. This was an unranked Virginia, Hardaway had put up 21 on Memphis and 19 on Duke. This was easily Hardaway's worst game of the season, but, as I stated in the game's preview, this first true road test for Michigan told a lot about how this season. This team will go as far as Tim Hardaway takes them.

There have been 2 games this year when Hardaway's performance has been pretty questionable (I will ignore games such as Ferris State because, well, it's Ferris State). Hardaway came out completely flat against Duke and was horrible against Virginia. Hardaway ended up with 19 points against Duke, but they ALL came in the 2nd half. You can't play top competition like Duke and have the best player on the team scoring 0 in the first half and hope to win. The same can be said about the Virginia game, except Hardaway showed up for even less of the game.

Now, my point is this. Michigan has lost 2 games this season, against Duke and Virginia. One game this team probably should have lost (Duke), but the other this team should have certainly won (Virginia). If Hardaway continues his practice of only showing up for some games, this Michigan team will not have the great season which has been predicted of them.

Burke has shown that he can really play and will be a major weapon, but if Hardaway doesn't show up in road games or for entire halfs, Michigan will not be able to beat the top competition such as Ohio State or Wisconsin this year. They will probably still make the tournament, but until Michigan, and specifically Hardaway, can turn this corner, I can't see the team going that far because this team simply can't score without Hardaway.

Iowa State (5-2) is a perfect chance for #14 Michigan to change the team's direction. Iowa State may not be the best team in the nation (lost to a 4-3 Drake, yes Drake, I have no idea who they are either), but they have 2 Michigan State transfers in Chris Allen and Korie Lucious. I think this alone will get the team fired up enough to get ahead of their poor performance on Tuesday. Along with this, the home-court advantage is going to propel them for much of the season.

Predictions:

• Hardaway and Burke both reach double-digits
• Morgan gets into foul trouble, but Horford bails him out
• Smotrycz leads the team in rebounds Saturday

Michigan 63-56

Road Games And The Big Ten/ACC Challenge

Although much of the excitement and focus has been on the football team's dramatic victory over Ohio State (and rightfully so), many have forgotten that Michigan basketball will be tipping off against an exciting opponent Tuesday night at 7 p.m. on ESPN2.

Michigan's opponent in the annual Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be Virginia. Last year, Michigan faced Clemson in a rematch from its 2009 tournament trip. The game didn't receive the publicity of some other match-ups (such as Michigan State vs. Duke), but those who watched saw one of the first glimpses of a team that would sweep Michigan State, finish 19-12 in the regular season, and lose a close 2nd round game (technically the 3rd round) to Duke by two points.

In 2011-12, Michigan has already done some to prove themselves by defeating #8 (now #22) Memphis in the Maui Invitational by 12 pts, playing #6 (now #3) Duke tough for long segments of the game, and blowing out UCLA to have a Bright Finish In Maui. However, this is the first time Michigan will face a team in a true road game this season. There were many Memphis, Duke, and UCLA fans in Maui, but there were also plenty of Michigan fans (enough even to start a "Beat Ohio" chant at the end of the UCLA game).

This is important for Michigan because there are important players such as Trey Burke, Michigan's starting point guard who was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week, who have not experienced a true collegiate road game. He played at a high level and in big games during high school, but making a trip to Virginia to play in front of a hostile crowd will be something new. Obviously Maui was pretty far, but every team had to face the adversity of the trip and a mix of opposing and friendly fans.

Virginia (5-1) may not be #6 Duke or #8 Memphis, but they certainly appear to be capable of making the NCAA tournament. They have faced pretty weak competition up to now, facing no ranked opponents, but they have only lost one game, falling to a 4-2 TCU team at a neutral location by two points. Virginia has even received several votes in the Coaches' Poll.

I fully anticipate the #14 Michigan Wolverines will take care of business on Tuesday and win by a comfortable margin, but this should give fans an inkling about what to expect when the team has to go on the road to places like East Lansing and Columbus. Being able to compete on the road is going to be one of the main things that determines whether Michigan can compete for the Big Ten championship and a high-seed into the NCAA Tournament this year or will end up as a "middle of the pack" team.

Michigan was able to finish at 5-5 on the road last season and this is largely what allowed them to pick up near the end of the season (Michigan started at 1-3 on the road). If Michigan proves it can play on the road this Saturday, they should have a great chance during Big Ten season, and it would be one more potential win to point when it comes time to pick teams for the NCAA tournament come March.

Prediction:

Michigan 67-57

Photo Credit: AnnArbor.com