Preseason All-Big Ten Teams and Predictions

Today, the Preseason All-Big Ten teams and preseason rankings for the Big Ten were released.  None of the selections were too surprising, but I wanted to take this chance to make my own selections and predictions.  Typically, the preseason polls are relatively accurate, but they often have major errors and for this reason, I want to create my own Preseason All-Big Ten teams.  Of course, mine may be just as inaccurate as the teams the media's came up with this year, but I still selected my own teams just in case.

Before I can create my own lists, we should probably take a look at the lists that were selected by the media.  Overall, I think fans will have to generally agree with their assumptions, but I think there are some major problems with their list.  For instance, I have predicted that Ohio State will have a significant dropoff this season, but the media decided to select two players from the Buckeyes, which seems absolutely insane to me.  They have some quality players, but I really think that's going out on a limb.  Regardless, let's take a look at their list and predictions:

CBSSports Preseason Rankings: Michigan And Big Ten Breakdown

Earlier this week, CBS Sports released several lists look at the upcoming college basketball season.  Not only did they break down some of the elite teams, but they took a look at the best players across the nation and named their preseason All-American picks and their Top 100 players in the country.  Now, I don't make it a habit of responding to every preseason hype list or ranking, but I thought the way CBS laid out the rankings was quite interesting and I wanted to respond.

Their preview post had three parts; Preseason All-Americans, Top 100 Players, and Final Four Predictions. I'm only going to respond to the first two because responding to every expert's Final Four picks is simply ludicrous   Most of them will be off and it would simply take too much time to analyze each pick.  However, I thought the selections in the All-American and Top 100 players lists were pretty interesting and something I wanted to analyze.  So here are where Michigan and the Big Ten teams stacked up on both lists:

Previewing Big Ten Basketball: Penn State

Over the next few weeks, I will be doing some early breakdowns on Michigan's Big Ten competition next year.  Who they're returning, any major staff changes, and their incoming recruits.  I did a massive four part series about Michigan's position for the Big Ten championship, but this series will be focusing specifically on other Big Ten teams.  Every year there is at least one surprise team, so looking at the pre-season favorites is not always the best method for analyzing the Big Ten.  So, let's get down to business.

Penn State was one of the weakest teams in the conference and showed that by finishing dead last in conference play.  They were a complete non-factor in the Big Ten race and were probably the team with the least impact on the race as well.  Teams like Iowa and Illinois were pretty weak as well, but at least they pulled off a few upsets during the year.  Looking back, the most significant win on Penn State's schedule was their victory over Purdue in early January.  Their struggles are also clearly seen in their poor finish in many statistical categories.

	Record	Big Ten	PPG	PPG Rank	Points Allowed	Points Allowed Rk	3pt%	3pt% Rk
MSU	29-8	13-5	72.3	3	59.3	2	36.2	6
OSU	31-8	13-5	75.1	2	59.8	3	33.3	9
Michigan	24-10	13-5	66.5	8	61.5	4	35.0	8
Wisconsin	26-10	12-6	63.9	10	53.2	1	36.8	5
Indiana	27-9	11-7	77.3	1	66.4	10	43.1	1
Purdue	22-13	10-8	72.2	4	66.0	9	37.7	3
NU	19-14	8-10	69.5	6	68.2	11	38.6	2
Iowa	18-17	8-10	71.9	5	72.5	12	37.3	4
Minnesota	23-15	6-12	67.4	7	64.8	6	35.6	7
Illinois	17-15	6-12	65.6	9	64.2	5	30.4	12
Nebraska	12-18	4-14	60.9	12	65.6	7	32.4	10
Penn St	12-20	4-14	61.8	11	65.8	8	31.1	11

*Stats from: DonBest


Penn State did struggle statistically, but they did have some exceptional players and could have very likely pulled off some upsets in close games that would have made them more of a factor.  They played Michigan, Wisconsin, and Indiana close over the season and all three teams were in the Big Ten race.  Along with this, if they would have been able to win one or two of these games the entire direction of their season could have changed.  They probably wouldn't have been in the Big Ten race, but they might have finished better with momentum from a win over a solid Big Ten team.

The best thing Penn State has going for them is youth.  Last season, four of their five starters were sophmores or younger.  That's pretty amazing youth for a Big Ten team.  Tim Frazier was their best player, but he will be back.  Obviously, this youth showed in their poor performance last season, but that's something that should improve for next year.  When you have numerous freshmen in your starting lineup, they should be better and more consistent for next season as a team.

Along with this, their team plays with fire and seems to be pretty well coached.  I think Michigan fans remember the near upset in Michigan's final regular season game last year.  Penn State is a team that will play hard whether they have the lead or not and that's a reason I think they will be in good shape for the long run.  Improving age, experience, and coaching is something that should pay dividends.  They may not be set-up for next season, but 2013 or 2014 might be seasons where they're a relatively big factor and make a NCAA Tournament run.

However, Penn State's major challenge is changing what has become a losing tradition with little talent.  Penn State doesn't bring in a lot of top talent and that can be seen from their latest recruiting class.  They have a couple guys that could turn out decent from this class, most notably 6'9" power forward Donovan Jack, but they aren't exactly bringing in the blue chip athletes.  They will have to largely rely on Frazier to carry them at times.  I'm predicting a slight improvement, but I think they're going to end up near the bottom of the Big Ten again.

Penn State Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 11th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Very Low
Upset Status: 1 Major Upset
NCAA Tournament Status: No NCAA or NIT bid

Trey Burke And Michigan Stiffed In Big Ten Awards Show

Well, the results are finally out.  Trey Burke is Big Ten Freshman of the Year...kinda.  Burke won Freshman of the Year in the media poll, but Cody Zeller from Indiana won in the coaches' poll.  Zeller had an outstanding year, but Burke definitely seemed to have a better resume, especially if the voters were to consider that Michigan won the Big Ten Championship and Indiana finished in 5th place.

Along with this, Tom Izzo was named the Coach of the Year for the Big Ten in one of the most surprising picks I've ever seen.  Certainly Michigan State was not predicted to win the Big Ten, but it's not as if anybody predicted Michigan to finish better than last year with a freshman point guard and actually win the conference championship.  Beilein has done a fantastic job with this team and it's a shame that he hasn't gotten more appreciation for his work.  Simply having the "best" team should not make you the coach of the year.  Beilein's team is composed of players that most teams wouldn't even recruit, let alone win a conference championship in the best basketball conference in the country.

However, even though Burke did not win Freshman of the Year outright and Beilein was overlooked in shocking fashion, the All Big-Ten team selections were very, very questionable.  Obviously, players like Sullinger and Green should be instant inclusions, but somehow the media and coaches decided that Jordan Taylor from Wisconsin and Tim Frazier from Penn State were better than Trey Burke.  There is always room for opinion, but I was simply amazed by this selection.

Frazier was certainly a solid player on a horrible team, but that's important to note.  Penn State was horrid this year in Big Ten play.  They beat no Big Ten team of significance in 18 attempts.  Burke was the key factor Michigan was able to defeat teams like Michigan State and Ohio State and won its first Big Ten title since 1986.  Team success should not be the only factor, but it's not as if Burke didn't have the stats to back him up.  He was consistently good all year.

I mean, look at the stats on that.  Not only are Burke's stats comparable with Frazier''s, but his are actually better than those of Jordan Taylor.  It simply does not make sense to pick Frazier or Taylor over Burke because he not only had individual success, but his team did great as well.  Even look at the results.  Neither Taylor nor Frazier were listed on both the Media and Coaches' All-Big Ten teams.  That's right, Taylor was 1st All-Big Ten for the coaches, but didn't even make the media poll.  Frazier did the same on the reverse.  To me, this clearly shows how the inconsistency of these selections.  The best point guard in the Big Ten is Jordan Taylor or Tim Frazier, but they don't even make the Top 3 on the other list?  Something doesn't add up there.

Regardless, it was still a good night for Michigan as Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway were both listed as All-Big Ten selections and Burke won Freshman of the Year in the Media Poll.  Perhaps in the future these selections will be less random, but Michigan will still have its championship rings to show, even if it didn't fare as well in these awards.

Photo Credit: AnnArbor.com

Wrapping It All Up: Michigan @ Penn State Preview

Well, didn't I say this was going to be a close finish?  In what is going to be a crazy day for the Big Ten, there are two games left to determine the Big Ten regular season championship.  Michigan will be traveling to play Penn State and Ohio State will be traveling to East Lansing to face the Spartans.  In most scenarios, the title would be wrapped up before the final game of the season, but this year isn't exactly a normal year.  There are three teams with a shot at the title in the final day of the season.  However, virtually everything depends on the result in East Lansing.

Now, I said a few weeks ago that I didn't expect the Buckeyes to be able to go into the Breslin Center and win.  However, there is still a good chance the upset happens.  OSU is not playing its best basketball right now and has faded over the course of the season, but Michigan State has not been playing superb in the last few games either.  They've been sneaking out close wins and actually lost in their last game against Indiana by a significant margin.

I still think it's going to be a great game, but if I were Michigan fans, I would be hesitant to start celebrating a championship before the buzzer.  It should be pretty close for portions, but I think OSU has lost its swagger and is pretty beatable at this point.  I mean MSU may have lost their last game and been sneaking out wins against weaker teams, but OSU is only 3-3 in their last 6 games.  They have not been playing like they did earlier this year and their last impressive win was against Michigan on January 29th.  That's a pretty long drought seeing that we're now in March.

So, as I said, I'm not predicting a championship for the Wolverines today, simply because I don't think OSU is going to be able to convert in East Lansing.  Having said that, let's get back to the important game: Michigan @ Penn State.  Michigan is easily in the tournament this year and aside from Big Ten title hopes and better seeding, this game means little.  Penn State is one of the weakest teams in the Big Ten and has no realistic shot at the NCAA Tournament.  Having said that, they are going to be playing for a good amount when the Wolverines come into town.

Everybody knows the last few weeks of the season are always pretty crazy.  Not only are teams trying to get those crucial wins to make the tournament, but a lot of teams are trying to legitimize their seasons as well.  I'm sure everybody can remember an example of a mediocre team toppling a power just before the season ends to somehow justify that team's horrible finish.  This is what Michigan will be facing when they tip-off.

As I previewed earlier this year, Penn State has a lot of holes that Michigan should be able to exploit.  They are pretty weak in almost every statistical category and have beaten virtually nobody this season.  They are 4-14 in Big Ten play and their most impressive win is against Purdue.  Obviously, Michigan had its own trouble with Purdue recently, but they aren't exactly a Big Ten powerhouse.

The biggest factor will be Tim Frazier.  He is their leader in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, and steals.  Think about that for a second.  He leads the team in perhaps the five most important statistical categories in basketball.  Compare that to Michigan, which has 4 different team leaders in the categories listed above.  That's a pretty substantial difference.  What does it imply?  Penn State is Tim Frazier, plain and simple.  He's probably more important to his team than anyone in the Big Ten, except perhaps Draymond Green, who is virtually a lock for Big Ten Player of the Year.

If Michigan can slow down Frazier, they are going to win.  It's pretty much that simple.  Penn State doesn't really have another guy that can stay with a team like Michigan.  Now, this is a decent team that plays very hard, but when your team has one individual that has that big a contribution, it pretty much needs him performing well.  Michigan gave up 20 points to Frazier last time and if they give up a decent chunk to him this time it could hurt them.

However, something to note in the last match-up between Michigan and Penn State.  Frazier may have scored 20 points, which is above his season average of 18.8 ppg, but nobody else on the Nittany Lions scored above 10 points.  If Michigan can use this same tactic, they are still going to be in great shape.  Basically, shut down Frazier or shut down the other guys.  Frazier can carry his team pretty well, but he still needs support.  Along with this, it's pretty obvious that the other guys do not play well unless Frazier is pretty active.  A clear example of this strategy is Penn State @ Nebraska.  Frazier scored 30 points, but the Nittany Lions still lost, primarily because the other guys did almost nothing.

Bottom line, if Michigan slows down Frazier or is able to slow down his weak supporting cast, there's no reason this team shouldn't win, even though it's a season-ending road game.  I anticipate the Wolverines will come out focused with the Big Ten championship in mind and play pretty well.  Plus, it's not as if Penn State is playing very hot.  They've lost their last three games with several of them in convincing fashion.  Given this, I have to give the edge to Michigan.

My Magic Pick Is...

Michigan 68-59


Photo Credit: UMHoops