CBSSports Preseason Rankings: Michigan And Big Ten Breakdown

Earlier this week, CBS Sports released several lists look at the upcoming college basketball season.  Not only did they break down some of the elite teams, but they took a look at the best players across the nation and named their preseason All-American picks and their Top 100 players in the country.  Now, I don't make it a habit of responding to every preseason hype list or ranking, but I thought the way CBS laid out the rankings was quite interesting and I wanted to respond.

Their preview post had three parts; Preseason All-Americans, Top 100 Players, and Final Four Predictions. I'm only going to respond to the first two because responding to every expert's Final Four picks is simply ludicrous   Most of them will be off and it would simply take too much time to analyze each pick.  However, I thought the selections in the All-American and Top 100 players lists were pretty interesting and something I wanted to analyze.  So here are where Michigan and the Big Ten teams stacked up on both lists:

And We Meet Again...Michigan vs. Illinois Preview

If I had told you that the most fraudulent team in the Big Ten was Illinois on January 10th you might not have believed me.  Heck, I might not have believed this myself.  Illinois was 15-3, 4-1 in the Big Ten, just outside of the rankings, and had just defeated #5 Ohio State.  However, what followed is arguably one of the biggest collapses in recent memory.  Illinois would lose 9/10 games including losses to Penn State, Minnesota, and Nebraska.

Think about that for a second.  Their collapse is actually kind of impressive.  Illinois had an 80% winning percentage in Big Ten play on January 10th.  They had even played decent teams in Northwestern and Ohio State.  Sure, they had games against Minnesota and Nebraska, but they beat #5 Ohio State, that has to count for something.  It's still a quality win for the Illini, but when a team follows up that performance by winning 10% of its next 10 games, there is a problem.

So, what caused this collapse?  The obvious answer would be that Illinois was a fraud (and I don't mean the kind that steals your credit card numbers).  Illinois won 4/5 Big Ten games, but they only ended up +1 point through their first five Big Ten games.  Sure, there are all kinds of statistical problems with calculating performance simply off points, but that's pretty astounding.  Along with this, they had to go to double overtime to beat Minnesota, at home.

Even looking through the rest of Illinois's schedule and wins, one can get the sense that Illinois's early season success was a fraud.  Look at their win against Michigan State.  It was at home and ended up only being by 1 point.  They had numerous close losses, but as I stated earlier, they were against teams like Penn State, Minnesota, and Nebraska, who are not exactly the powerhouses of the Big Ten.

So, why do I bring this up in a Michigan vs. Illinois preview?  The main reason is to point out that this Illinois team has completely collapsed.  They are only 1 game ahead of Nebraska and Penn State, meaning they are 10th in the Big Ten right now.  Traveling to face the 10th best team in the Big Ten shouldn't be something that Michigan or fans should fear.  Sure, they've managed to beat Ohio State and Michigan State, but those wins were pretty fluky, relying on bad performances from the other teams and ridiculous performances from one or two players.

Illinois's offense has become virtually non-existent.  Even Nebraska was able to contain them pretty well.  One of the main problems has been their movement away from Meyers Leonard for no apparent reason.  Leonard is still one of the best big men in the conference and Michigan doesn't really have anybody that matches up well against him.  He got in some foul trouble against Michigan last time and didn't have a big impact, which is what the Wolverines will look for again this time.

The only other real offensive threat is Brandon Paul, who put up 43 points against Ohio State.  Yes, he put up 43 points.  I linked the stats sheet here, just in case you don't believe me.  However, he has only broken 20 twice since then, including an overtime loss to Minnesota.  He certainly is one of Illinois' best contributors and will probably get in the 15 point range against Michigan, but I highly doubt he's going to tear up a pretty good Michigan defense like he did against Ohio State.

This game is crucial if the Wolverines want to have a shot at winning the Big Ten and getting a good seed for the NCAA Tournament.  I look for a big performance from Tim Hardaway, Jr., since he seems to match-up pretty well against the Illini.  He had 15 points against them last time and I think he's going to hit his stride this time as well.  Along with Hardaway, look for turnovers to be crucial element, since this should be a relatively low scoring game.  If Michigan can control the ball well, they will have a great chance at winning.

I think Michigan will win this game primarily because Illinois is in collapse mode.  Their coach is going to get fired and his team knows it.  Even in comments from Weber you can tell he knows he's going to be out the door after the season.  Losing 9/10 is unacceptable and this team has lost all of its drive and fire.  Michigan, on the other hand, should be fired up to improve their road record and tournament prospects.

My Magic Pick Is...


Michigan 62-55


Photo Credit: Thomas Beindit

Getting Into The Big Ten Race: Michigan vs. Illinois Preview

Well, things finally seem to be going the Wolverines' way as of late.  Not only did they just beat Nebraska for their second true road win of the season, but Michigan State's victory over Ohio State tonight has essentially opened up the Big Ten race once again.  Michigan State is leading the Big Ten by tiebreak over Ohio State, but Michigan and Wisconsin are just one game back with a great opportunity to close the gap.

So, what does that mean for this game against Illinois?  It's a MUST win.  If this team wants any chance of winning the Big Ten, or at least sharing the title, they have to win just about every remaining game.  They have the easiest remaining schedule of the four title contenders and capitalizing on that is vital, especially at home.  With a match-up against the Buckeyes next Saturday, winning this is essential.

So, let's compare these two teams:

Offense
Illinois is averaging more points that the Wolverines right now, but almost everything goes through their point guard Brandon Paul.  He's currently averaging 15 points, 5 rebounds, and over 3 assists per game.  The other true play-maker for the Illini is Meyers Leynard.  He's a great inside man and will probably cause some problems for the Wolverines, especially if Morgan gets in foul trouble.

However, Michigan's offense has become pretty diverse, especially with the increased use of Morgan.  Morgan's role will likely be diminished with Leynard's presence, but he's going to be vital if Michigan is going to win.  I expect a big day from some role players (I'm looking at you Novak, Douglass and Vogrich).  Along with this, if Hardaway has a big day I find it doubtful the Illini can slow down the Michigan offense.  Frankly, I just believe Michigan has more weapons

Advantage: Slight Edge Michigan

Defense
Unlike on offense, this is an area where Michigan has a size-able advantage.  Not only do the Wolverines allow fewer points that Illinois, but also do a good job of defending places like the perimeter.  This is one thing that I think will be key if the Wolverines are to beat Illinois.  Sure, Illinois has a great inside attack with Leynard, but it was the 3-PT shooting that vaulted them to their best wins like against Ohio State.  If Michigan slows this down, the upset potential should be reduced pretty significantly.

Michigan's 1-3-1 scheme is also pretty unusual, as you're probably tired of hearing by now, which could cause Paul a problem.  He's an outstanding point guard, but he's going to have Burke or Douglass guarding him, which should slow him down.  Plus, with the lowered potential for outside shooting they are going to have to go inside.  Sure, Leynard has an advantage over Morgan, but the Wolverines didn't do too bad against Zeller, who is pretty good himself.  Considering this I think Michigan has the defensive advantage.

Advantage: Michigan


Intangibles/Crowd
Michigan will certainly be coming in a lot hotter than the Illini.  Not only has Illinois lost five of their last six games, but they've also lost to Penn State, Minnesota, and Northwestern, not exactly the pride of the Big Ten.  Along with this, Illinois lost to Michigan when they met last season.  Certainly it was last year, but I'm sure some of that will be on their minds.  Finally, Michigan will be playing at home for the first time in what seems like forever, which will have the crowd pumped up.

Advantage: Significant Michigan


Overall
I certainly don't expect a blow-out from either side, but I'd be shocked if Illinois upset or made it extremely close at the end.  The Wolverines have given up huge leads in Crisler this season to make them close games, but I don't see it in this game.  The two teams are headed in opposite directions and I think most people thought Michigan was better even before Illinois began their downturn.

Without an insane performance from Paul I can't see Illinois coming into Crisler and winning.  The Wolverines have played outstanding defense all season in Ann Arbor and will likely continue that on Sunday.  Along with this, Michigan is simply the better team.  That means that Illinois will have to play better than their average and Michigan will have to play pretty bad.  This will be a competitive game, but I think Michigan will take control of the tempo from the start.


My Magic Pick Is...


Michigan 65-59


Photo Credit: AP