Friday, July 6, 2012

Previewing Big Ten Basketball: Wisconsin

We are officially into the meat and potatoes of the Big Ten now.  This time we roll into Madison to preview what has been one of, if not, the most consistent program in the Big Ten over the last decade.  Not only has Wisconsin made the NCAA Tournament in every season under head coach Bo Ryan, but they've also won the Big Ten Championship twice and never finished worse than 4th in the conference.  For a conference as tough as the Big Ten, that is a pretty impressive feat.


Wisconsin had a very interesting 2011-2012 season.  If you look at the team's overall record and their wins and losses, they probably had a better season than many would probably believe.  Wisconsin had a 24-8 record before the NCAA Tournament and a 12-6 record in the Big Ten.  Wisconsin had 7 losses against ranked teams last season and 4 losses against ranked teams in Big Ten play.  In all honesty, outside of losing twice to a tricky Iowa squad, Wisconsin did not lose to an unranked team in the regular season.  That's extremely impressive.  Losing to Iowa was a damper, but if they had swept Iowa or only lost once, they would have been celebrating a Big Ten Championship.


The thing that plagued Wisconsin was its inability to beat the elite Big Ten teams.  Throughout Big Ten play, including the Big Ten Tournament, Wisconsin had a record of 1-5 against Michigan, MSU, and OSU.  If a team wants to compete with the best teams, they need a better record than 1-5.  Along with this, they got blown out against Michigan and twice against MSU.  With the records I stated above, that's not something that should really happen.  The combination of Wisconsin's inability to compete with the Big Ten's best and its failure to beat Iowa at least once was enough to keep them out of splitting the Big Ten Championship, although they finished extremely close.



Record
Big Ten
PPG
PPG Rank
Points Allowed
Points Allowed Rk
3pt%
3pt% Rk
MSU
29-8
13-5
72.3
3
59.3
2
36.2
6
OSU
31-8
13-5
75.1
2
59.8
3
33.3
9
Michigan
24-10
13-5
66.5
8
61.5
4
35.0
8
Wisconsin
26-10
12-6
63.9
10
53.2
1
36.8
5
27-9
11-7
77.3
1
66.4
10
43.1
1
22-13
10-8
72.2
4
66.0
9
37.7
3
19-14
8-10
69.5
6
68.2
11
38.6
2
18-17
8-10
71.9
5
72.5
12
37.3
4
23-15
6-12
67.4
7
64.8
6
35.6
7
17-15
6-12
65.6
9
64.2
5
30.4
12
12-18
4-14
60.9
12
65.6
7
32.4
10
12-20
4-14
61.8
11
65.8
8
31.1
11
*Stats From DonBest


Wisconsin is losing some major contributions going into next year, but there's no reason to think that they won't be in for another solid year.  Their major loss has to be All-Big Ten point guard Jordan Taylor.  He was actually named to the 1st team All-Big Ten (I still strongly disagree) so replacing him will be a major challenge for the Badgers next year.  Despite the loss of Taylor, Wisconsin returns four starters, including Jared Berggren and Ryan Evens, who were All-Big Ten honorable mention, and Ben Burst, who was the 6th man of the Badgers last season.  They may be losing their best player at what is considered by many to be the most important position on the basketball court, but returning that kind of depth will go a very long way towards setting up their team for next season.


Wisconsin has not recruited as well as some of the other Big Ten schools as of late, but they still have been bringing in some pretty good replacements.  They brought in five recruits in 2011 and are currently set to bring in two recruits for 2012.  Out of these 7 recruits, 3 are rated as 4* recruits and 2 were rated in the ESPN100.  Those are respectable numbers for just about any program and will go a long way towards solidifying Wisconsin's teams in the future.


One thing to note is that 2011 Wisconsin recruit John Uthoff announced that he was going to be transferring from Wisconsin.  He was Wisconsinn's highest rated 2011 recruit and the only player in Wisconsin's 2011 recruiting class rated in the ESPN100.  Obviously, this is a major blow for a program that's trying to keep pace with the recruiting success of teams like Indiana, MSU, and Michigan.  Bucky's 5th Quarter, a Wisconsin blog, reported that Wisconsin has been going after a 2012 forward named Sheldon Jeter, which could theoretically replace the loss of Uthoff.  However, Jeter is only rated as a 2* recruit by ESPN and would be a major step down from a 4* ESPN100 player, plus he hasn't even committed to the Badgers yet. 


I think Wisconsin is set-up nicely for a great run next season.  Although I think they will struggle to find a replacement for Taylor, they do have some players that could be decent replacements.  One player, George Marshall, who was a member of Wisconsin's 2011 recruiting class, might have a shot, but he was a redshirt last year, so experience will still be a factor in his development.  Along with this, Wisconsin's other starters are going to have to improve if they want to make a serious run at the Big Ten.  Look at every team that finished in the top part of the Big Ten.  They all had at least one or two guys that were "stars" in the conference.  Teams are more than one player, but I think in a conference as tough as the Big Ten, a team really needs a star player that can take them over that "hump" to win the championship.


Right now, Wisconsin lost its star player from last season.  They do have players like Berggren and Evans who might make a run at that "star" status, but that's something that's unproven at this point.  I have no doubt that Wisconsin will be able to beat many Big Tens consistently, but can they compete against the top teams on a consistent basis?  They certainly couldn't do it last year.  They were blown out several times and finished with that dreadful 1-5 combined record against Michigan, MSU, and OSU.  To me, Michigan and MSU will both be solid again and Indiana is already receiving major hype.  Can the Badgers do enough to finish higher than these teams?  I'm not so sure and that's why I had to knock them down slightly.


Wisconsin Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 4th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Good
Upset Status: Great
NCAA Tournament Status: Great NCAA Bid

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