Are The Michigan Wolverines Really A Longshot For The College Football Playoff?

A longshot.

That’s all the experts are currently giving the Michigan Wolverines to make this year’s College Football Playoff. The weekly rankings came out on Tuesday evening and for many in the national media, the Wolverines remain an afterthought to make this year’s field of four.

Now, that’s certainly not a bold opinion. Michigan came in at No. 12 in the rankings and undeniably, doesn’t have a direct path to the championship rounds. The Wolverines are 8-2 on the season and actually need help to even make the Big Ten championship game. As such, it’s not hard to rationalize why many view Michigan’s Playoff odds as minimal.

But still, are the experts right? Does Michigan have just a longshot to make the field?

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Michigan’s Play Down The Stretch

Well, to answer this question, two scenarios have to be discussed. As mentioned, Michigan doesn’t have its fate in its own hands and as such, some things just have to go right for there to be any chance at making the Playoff. As such, separating these two scenarios is absolutely essential to having any productive discussion on whether Michigan can make the field.

Let’s take a look at the scenarios.

Michigan’s End of Season Scenarios:

• Scenario One:
• Michigan beats Penn State and Ohio State;
• Michigan State loses one of its final two games and;
• Michigan beats Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.
• Scenario Two:
• Michigan loses to either Penn State or Ohio State;
• Michigan State does not lose one of its final two games or;
• Michigan loses to Iowa in the Big Ten championship game.

Now, the reason I laid out these two scenarios is because the only, and I mean only, way that Michigan has any chance to make the College Football Playoff is with Scenario One. It’s nearly impossible to imagine Michigan being able to move up eight spots in the rankings in three weeks without winning the Big Ten championship.

How Far Can Michigan Rise Realistically?

Assuming Scenario One does occur - keep in mind that I will be assuming Scenario One takes place for the remainder of this piece - the picture looks a whole lot different. For one thing, it pretty much guarantees that Michigan will be moving up the rankings.

The question will simply be how much the Wolverines can move up over the next few weeks.

To assess this, let’s take a look at where the rankings stand as of Tuesday evening. Obviously, this will be a moving list going forward, but let’s take a look at where things sit.

Week 12 College Football Rankings:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Notre Dame
5. Iowa
6. Oklahoma State
7. Oklahoma
8. Florida
9. Michigan State
10. Baylor
11. Stanford
12. Michigan
13. Utah
14. Florida State
15. LSU
16. Navy
17. UNC
18. TCU
19. Houston

First, let me note that I didn’t go any further than No. 19 because there’s no chance that any team under Houston can pass Michigan in the rankings with Scenario One. All of the teams ranked below No. 19 have as many or more losses than the Wolverines and are already behind. As such, putting them in this discussion just isn’t logical.

The other big thing that pops out is that there is guaranteed to be movement in the rankings in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, it’s hard to put a thumb on who will lose and when those teams will lose in the coming weeks.

To help with this issue, what I’ve done is simulate the rest of the season according to the S&P rankings released by Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall. For those unfamiliar with these rankings, they are advanced statistical predictive models fo team. With these, we get an unbiased predictor to give us the outlook of the rest of the season.

This is important because it’s a realistic indicator and isn’t just a “gut feeling” on who will lose and when. With that, let’s take a look at the projections.

S & P End of Season Predictions:

Week 12 Ranking	Team	11/21 Week	11/28 Week	Champ Week
#1	Clemson	W	W	W
#2	Alabama	W	W	W
#3	Ohio State	W	L	--
#4	Notre Dame	W	W	--
#5	Iowa	W	W	L
#6	Ok. State	L	L	--
#7	Oklahoma	W	W	--
#8	Florida	W	W	L
$9	Michigan State	L	W	--
#10	Baylor	W	W	W
#11	Stanford	W	L	W
#12	Michigan	W	W	W
#13	Utah	W	W	L
#14	Florida State	W	L	--
#15	LSU	L	W	--
#16	Navy	W	W	W & W*
#17	UNC	W	L	L
#18	TCU	L	L	--
#19	Houston	W	L	--

* - Army vs Navy game delayed a week.

Obviously, there’s a lot of data to take in there. The first thing to note is that every team from No. 13 through No. 19 is projected to lose at least one game, except Navy. It’s tough to speculate as to what the Committee will or won’t do, but would the Committee push Navy above Michigan if Navy wins out? The Midshipmen would have a great resume, but it seems unlikely assuming that Michigan would have wins over Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa in the final three weeks. As such, it’s hard to imagine anybody passing the Wolverines in this scenario.

The other thing to note is that six teams ranked above Michigan are projected to lose. These teams are Florida, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Stanford. Four of these teams are projected to have two losses with the only exceptions being Iowa and Ohio State. Given that Michigan would have beaten Ohio State and Iowa to close the season, it’s not hard to imagine that Michigan passes all six of these teams in the rankings.

All told, the Wolverines would then be projected to be ranked No. 6 after winning the Big Ten title. Here are how the new rankings would look at the top based on these projections.

Pre-Playoff Rankings:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma
5. Baylor
6. Michigan

Michigan would fall just short of making the field in this scenario. However, there are a few things that are important to stress here. First, this scenario would involve zero upsets according to the S&P rankings. Maybe these results go against how some of these teams are perceived right now, but according to S&P, this is how things would end up.

Additionally, remember that Michigan really wouldn’t “jump” anyone in this scenario. This is really just predictably moving up with teams losing above and Michigan winning. In fact, given Baylor’s underwhelming resume and the strength of the Big Ten, is it that hard to imagine the Wolverines getting bumped up to No. 5? Absolutely not. It’s just not what is projected here. In short, it’s not unreasonable to think this projection might be underselling Michigan’s potential rise.

Help Needed?

With the projection above, the last thing I wanted to hit on was where Michigan could get some help. In all likelihood, if Michigan is able to win the Big Ten as described above, the Wolverines will likely need just one or two teams to get upset above them.

So what are the games that these five teams ranked above Michigan could lose that wouldn’t allow other teams to pass the Wolverines?

Remember, though we’ve largely focused on the teams above Michigan, don’t forget that there are also teams behind the Wolverines in play as well. As such, assuming a team like Florida beats Alabama instead of losing isn’t necessarily good news because the Gators would likely then just stay above the Wolverines. With that in mind, here are the “help” games.

Michigan’s End of Season Help Games:

1. Clemson
• Wake Forest
• @ South Carolina
• ACC Championship Game*
2. Alabama
• Charleston Southern
• @ Auburn
• SEC Championship Game*
3. Notre Dame
• Boston College
• @ Stanford*
4. Oklahoma
• @ Oklahoma State*
• TCU*
5. Baylor
• @ Oklahoma State*
• @ TCU*
• Texas

* - indicates games that may be helpful.

Unfortunately, there are only six games for the teams ranked above Michigan that would undoubtedly be helpful. The rough news is that four of these games come against Clemson and Alabama - both seem to be the least likely to go down in shocking fashion - and just two of these six games come on the road.

Needless to say, Michigan probably needs some help to … help it’s help. Yes, that sounds confusing, but simply put, the Wolverines need teams like Baylor, Florida, North Carolina, Stanford, and Utah to blow games against weaker teams in the coming weeks to allow them to be able to beat the top teams at the end of the year.

For example, if Baylor loses to Texas, there is no way on Earth the Bears are staying ranked above Michigan. That means if Baylor beats Oklahoma and TCU, it could only help Michigan. Additionally, if a team like North Carolina lost to North Carolina State, the Tar Heels could knock off Clemson in the ACC Championship game and only help Michigan.

Look, it’s probably unreasonable to think a team like Baylor is going to lose to Texas or that Clemson and Alabama are going to be upset as massive favorites at home, but the point is that there are some reasonable “help” game on the table for the Wolverines.

In fact, if Michigan can get a triangle loss scenario out of Notre Dame, Stanford, and Utah and is able to move past Baylor in the rankings, that’s all the Wolverines might need. That scenario would take Utah losing to UCLA or Colorado, Stanford beating Notre Dame, and Utah beating Stanford. That really isn’t that far of a reach and that alone could set things up.

Overall

There’s no debating that Michigan has its work cut out to even get into Playoff consideration, but the national media’s reluctance to even entertain the idea of the Wolverines making the top four just doesn’t add up when the scenarios get broken down.

Will the Wolverines need help? Absolutely.

Are there even any guarantees Michigan can win out? No way.

But is there a reasonable path to the Playoff? You bet.

It’s certainly not time for Michigan fans to even consider purchasing Playoff tickets just yet, but the fact is that there is still hope for the Wolverines. And if Jim Harbaugh can get his team on track, this could be quite an ending in Ann Arbor when all is said and done.