Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Previewing Big Ten Basketball: Ohio State

Our Big Ten basketball preview finally arrives in Columbus.  We've already analyzed some of the teams that are predicted to be great next year like Indiana and Wisconsin, but this is the first team we have touched on that won the Big Ten Championship last year.  Thad Matta, the current head coach of Ohio State, has an impressive record of 221-65, a record of 98-40 in the Big Ten, and four deep NCAA Tournament runs at Ohio State, despite making some blunders along the way (please click the link, you will enjoy it).


OSU had some inconsistent play during the 2011-2012 season, but they ultimately finished with a Final Four appearance and a share of the Big Ten Championship.  They entered Big Ten play with a 12-1 record, where their only loss was a road game against Kansas when Jared Sullinger was out with injury.  They played inconsistently to start Big Ten play with a 3-2 record, but both games were close losses and the Buckeyes had a huge target on their backs, which probably added into the upset factor.  They responded well, winning the next 6 games, including a rematch against Indiana, a road win over Wisconsin, and a win over Michigan at home.


At this point, OSU seemed to be the favorite to win the Big Ten.  However, after winning 6 straight games and having a 9-2 record in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes stumbled to a 2-3 record over the next 5 games.  After losing these games, there was just be too much to overcome for OSU to remain the "dominant" team in the Big Ten.  They had an uphill battle the rest of the season, but they won all of their remaining regular season games, made it to the Big Ten Tournament final, and won 4 NCAA Tournament games before collapsing at the very end of the game against Kansas to miss the NCAA Tournament final.
By any stretch, OSU had one of, if not the most impressive season of any Big Ten squad.  They had an extremely tough non-conference schedule, won the Big Ten, almost won the Big Ten Tournament, and were the only Big Ten team to make the Final Four.  Really, outside of one loss against Illinois, OSU performed exceptionally well.  Every Big Ten loss, outside of the Illinois game, came to a Big Ten team that finished 5th or above.  Their other losses to eventual NCAA Tournament runner-up Kansas aren't exactly too bad either.  Their impressive play can be seen below:



Record
Big Ten
PPG
PPG Rank
Points Allowed
Points Allowed Rk
3pt%
3pt% Rk
Michigan
24-10
13-5
66.5
8
61.5
4
35.0
8
MSU
29-8
13-5
72.3
3
59.3
2
36.2
6
OSU
31-8
13-5
75.1
2
59.8
3
33.3
9
26-10
12-6
63.9
10
53.2
1
36.8
5
27-9
11-7
77.3
1
66.4
10
43.1
1
22-13
10-8
72.2
4
66.0
9
37.7
3
19-14
8-10
69.5
6
68.2
11
38.6
2
18-17
8-10
71.9
5
72.5
12
37.3
4
23-15
6-12
67.4
7
64.8
6
35.6
7
17-15
6-12
65.6
9
64.2
5
30.4
12
12-18
4-14
60.9
12
65.6
7
32.4
10
12-20
4-14
61.8
11
65.8
8
31.1
11
*Stats From DonBest


OSU had an impressive roster last season, featuring four players that earned All-Big Ten marks in at least one of the media or coaches polls.  However, their only 1st team All-Big Ten player, Jared Sullinger, opted to go to the NBA Draft and their only consensus 2nd team All-Big Ten player, William Buford, graduated last year.  This means OSU will be returning 3 starters, including All-Big Ten players Deshaun Thomas and Aaron Craft.  Thomas was a 2nd/3rd teamer and Craft made the 3rd team on the media list.


There's no doubt that bringing back the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, the team's assists leader, and the team's steals leader in Aaron Craft will be an advantage.  Along with this, Thomas was 2nd in scoring and 2nd in rebounding for the Buckeyes last year.  If this were most teams, I would say they would be returning an insane amount for next year.  However, the Buckeyes will be losing their scoring leader, rebounding leader, and blocks leader just in Sullinger.  Along with this, they will be losing Burford who was 3rd in scoring, 3rd in rebounding, and 2nd in assists last year for the Buckeyes.  OSU will have a solid team next year, but replacing those kinds of numbers will be a challenge.


OSU's incoming recruiting class for 2012 is also practically non-existent.  They did land Amedeo Della Valle, who Michigan was actually recruiting for a while.  He's a point guard and because of Aaron Craft returning, Della Valle probably won't see much time under Matta's coaching philosophy of almost never playing the bench.  Now, OSU's 2011 recruiting class was fantastic, with 5 commits and 4 players that landed on the ESPN100 list, but there will still be some question marks regarding these players.  For instance, the 2011 recruit that is most likely to take over Sullinger's role, Amir Williams, averaged just 6.6 minutes last year and a whopping 1.7 pts per game.  Going from slight bench player to major contributor is always a challenge.


OSU is also going to have some other challenges to face other than just replacing two of their most important players.  Aaron Craft, who seems to be becoming the leader for the Buckeyes, has recently undergone surgery.  It isn't deemed anything major at this point, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on as the season approaches.  OSU also recently suffered the transfer of sophomore forward J.D. Weatherspoon.  He was rated as a 3* in the 2010 recruiting class and wasn't expected to be a major contributor, but losing an experienced player is never good news.


Ohio State will be an interesting team to watch and gauge for next season.  They have suffered some major offseason losses, primarily with Sullinger and Buford, but they do have some solid depth and have recruiting at a very high level in recent years.  The major questions are whether Matta can find an adequate replacement for these losses and whether they can play at the same high level they have the last few years.


I believe that OSU will be able to find one or two guys capable of at least filling Sullinger's role at least somewhat.  The primary candidates are Amir Williams and Boston College transfer Evan Ravenel.  Looking at their college stats, neither of them seems to offer a ton of confidence, but between a ESPN100 recruit and an experienced big man, somebody should be capable of doing something.  I also think there's a decent chance that either Lenzelle Smith, Jr. or Jordan Sibert can do something to fill the void created by Buford's departure.  Neither have done much at the collegiate level, but both were rated very high coming out of high school.


To me, it's pretty clear that OSU will not be as good as they were last year.  That shouldn't be surprising considering what they accomplished last season, but there should be a drop-off.  Overcoming the loss of your team's best player and another major contributor would be hard enough alone, but the Big Ten should be even better next year than it was this year.  Some teams should drop-off some like MSU, Northwestern, and Purdue, but teams like Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin should be very solid.  A slight drop-off by the Buckeyes will probably end up being a lot bigger just because of the level of competition.  They will be able to threaten teams on a consistent basis, but to me, Craft and Thomas alone just aren't going to be enough to carry this team against the best.  Anybody who watched last season knows how many big shots Sullinger and Buford made last year.  Craft and Thomas made some, but it was ultimately Sullinger and Buford that took this team to another level.  Maybe Craft and Thomas get better, but for now, I have to bump them down off last year.


Ohio State Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 5th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Good
Upset Status: Good
NCAA Tournament Status: Solid NCAA Bid

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