Previewing Big Ten Basketball: Purdue

It's taken a while, but we've finally arrived at the top half of the Big Ten from last season.  Of course, that's no guarantee on how they'll finish next year, such as how I predicted that Minnesota would finish in the top half of the Big Ten next year (10th last year).  Purdue was a team that was fairly consistent over the season.  They beat most of the bottom-dwellers like Nebraska and Penn State, competed with the top teams once in a while, but weren't able to get enough wins over teams like MSU, Michigan, and OSU to really get into the title race.


Purdue began their season with a 12-3 record, two wins to start their conference season, and with two of their first three losses coming at the hands of teams that were ranked at the time they played Purdue.  Despite this impressive start, they compiled just a 10-8 conference record and finished 6th in the Big Ten.  For most teams, a 10-8 record would be good, but it was the way they compiled their 10-8 record that really left a lot of Boilermaker fans frustrated.


Purdue had a conference record over .500 and finished 6th in the conference race, but they went 1-8 against Big Ten teams that finished 1st through 5th.  Basically, outside of Purdue's late season victory over Michigan, they beat none of the good teams in the Big Ten.  This typically happens to teams that finish lower down in the conference standings, but how Purdue got this record was surprising.  Purdue lost three of these games in very tight fashion and several of these games were a lot closer than they appeared, such as their late season match-up with MSU.  If they had won a few of these games, their entire season might have changed. I mean, they were only three games out 1st place in the Big Ten.  Changing a couple of those close games and Purdue's right in the thick of things.  However, they didn't do that and that's the reason they lagged behind a bit on some stats:

	Record	Big Ten	PPG	PPG Rank	Points Allowed	Points Allowed Rk	3pt%	3pt% Rk
MSU	29-8	13-5	72.3	3	59.3	2	36.2	6
OSU	31-8	13-5	75.1	2	59.8	3	33.3	9
Michigan	24-10	13-5	66.5	8	61.5	4	35.0	8
Wisconsin	26-10	12-6	63.9	10	53.2	1	36.8	5
Indiana	27-9	11-7	77.3	1	66.4	10	43.1	1
Purdue	22-13	10-8	72.2	4	66.0	9	37.7	3
NU	19-14	8-10	69.5	6	68.2	11	38.6	2
Iowa	18-17	8-10	71.9	5	72.5	12	37.3	4
Minnesota	23-15	6-12	67.4	7	64.8	6	35.6	7
Illinois	17-15	6-12	65.6	9	64.2	5	30.4	12
Nebraska	12-18	4-14	60.9	12	65.6	7	32.4	10
Penn St	12-20	4-14	61.8	11	65.8	8	31.1	11

*Stats From DonBest

Purdue is shaping up to have an interesting run next season.  Although they are losing their only All-Big Ten player from last season in Robbie Hummel, they have a pretty solid supporting cast returning.  They are getting three starters back including D.J. Byrd, who earned the Big Ten's Sixth Man of the Year Award.  He did start towards the end of the year and should be lined up for a big season, if he gets his legal troubles in order.  Anthony Johnson, a freshman from last season, could also make a bigger impact next year as he did some decent work off the bench in his first year, including some serious minutes in the team's first round NCAA victory and close loss to national title runner-up Kansas in round two.

Along with this, Purdue is bringing in a spectacular recruiting class in for 2012.  They were ranked #19 in the nation by ESPN and the class includes four commitments, three of which landed on the ESPN100.  Purdue will be losing Lewis Jackson, who was the team's senior point guard and earned All-Big Ten honorable mention last year.  2012 recruit Ronnie Johnson has to be a prime candidate to replace him.  He is rated as a 4* recruit and as the #17 point guard in the 2012 class.  Purdue has some depth at guard right now, but I do think Johnson has a good chance to come in and make an instant impact next year.  We saw it with Trey Burke last year and Johnson could be the Big Ten's point guard to repeat that next year.

Purdue will have a solid squad next year, but I think they are going to be limited by the strength of the Big Ten again next season.  It's one thing to beat the weaker teams, but another to beat the Big Ten's best and I just don't think Purdue is there yet. I think Purdue has the pieces to be a very good team, just not next year.  Replacing their best player and one of the best in the conference is hard enough.  It's one of the main reasons why I think Northwestern will struggle next year.  However, Purdue not only has to replace Hummel, which is a major challenge in itself, but they also have to replace their senior point guard.  Point guard is not always a position that is kind to newcomers and this is one of the main reasons to question Purdue's chances next year.  Purdue's depth and recruiting will prevent them from dropping too much, but I don't think they will finish quite as good as they did last year.

Purdue Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 7th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Small
Upset Status: Moderate
NCAA Tournament Status: NCAA Bid (On The Bubble)