As our analysis of the Big Ten continues, we arrive at our first team that will likely be ranked in the preseason polls. Right now, ESPN's Andy Katz has Minnesota at #25 and on the edge of the rankings and there's no reason to think that won't be accurate when the season begins. Obviously, the preseason rankings mean very little in the grand scheme of things, as referenced in my Illinois post, but it does show that this team has some big expectations for next season. They certainly aren't expected to be in the Big Ten title race or as one of the top teams in the nation, but if the preseason predictions are accurate, they should be able to go to the NCAA Tournament.Minnesota started off the season with a lot of potential. They began their season 6-0 and started off with a record of 12-1 before entering Big Ten play. They actually received votes in the first three AP polls of last season. However, Trebor Mbakwe, who is considered by most to be Minnesota's best player, was injured in their only non-conference loss against Dayton and did not return for the remainder of the season. This was a huge hit to the Golden Gophers as he was named 2nd team All-Big Ten in the 2010-2011 and actually led the Big Ten in rebounding during his junior year.
His loss was evident as Minnesota limped to a 6-12 conference record and a 19-14 record overall before postseason play. Their collapse last season wasn't as bad as Illinois' collapse, but it certainly was disappointing to see such a promising season end so badly. Minnesota did receive a bid to the NIT Tournament and was able to make the championship game against Stanford. They lost the game, but it did give the team a respectable finish, especially considering the loss of Mbakwe. They were probably the most consistent of the "bottom dwellers", which can be seen in the stats below:
Record
|
Big Ten
|
PPG
|
PPG Rank
|
Points Allowed
|
Points Allowed
Rk
|
3pt%
|
3pt% Rk
| |
MSU
|
29-8
|
13-5
|
72.3
|
3
|
59.3
|
2
|
36.2
|
6
|
OSU
|
31-8
|
13-5
|
75.1
|
2
|
59.8
|
3
|
33.3
|
9
|
Michigan
|
24-10
|
13-5
|
66.5
|
8
|
61.5
|
4
|
35.0
|
8
|
Wisconsin
|
26-10
|
12-6
|
63.9
|
10
|
53.2
|
1
|
36.8
|
5
|
Indiana
|
27-9
|
11-7
|
77.3
|
1
|
66.4
|
10
|
43.1
|
1
|
Purdue
|
22-13
|
10-8
|
72.2
|
4
|
66.0
|
9
|
37.7
|
3
|
NU
|
19-14
|
8-10
|
69.5
|
6
|
68.2
|
11
|
38.6
|
2
|
Iowa
|
18-17
|
8-10
|
71.9
|
5
|
72.5
|
12
|
37.3
|
4
|
Minnesota
|
23-15
|
6-12
|
67.4
|
7
|
64.8
|
6
|
35.6
|
7
|
17-15
|
6-12
|
65.6
|
9
|
64.2
|
5
|
30.4
|
12
| |
12-18
|
4-14
|
60.9
|
12
|
65.6
|
7
|
32.4
|
10
| |
12-20
|
4-14
|
61.8
|
11
|
65.8
|
8
|
31.1
|
11
|
Minnesota may have been weak last season, but they have enormous potential for next season with essentially all of their starters returning. The team was very young with almost all of their key players last season being sophomores or younger. This means a lot of their problems should get some help with just some more experience. Along with this, Mbakwe is going to be an enormous help. Having your star player back on a team with solid depth should certainly make them more competitive.
The Gophers aren't bringing in a ton recruiting-wise in 2012, but with all the depth they've already established, it's not really something that's going to hurt them very much. A lot of their team should be around for a few years and they had a monster 2011 recruiting class featuring two ESPN100 players and four commits overall. Their current class has only two commitments and features no recruits on the ESPN100. Regardless, recruiting shouldn't be something that has a major impact on this team for next year, primarily because of their youth and depth.
Minnesota should be a much better squad next year and be able to compete with many of their top teams in the conference, but I don't think they've turned that corner quite yet. Getting their star player back, some more experience, and winning some tight games will go a long way, but I really don't see them being able to keep up with teams like Indiana, Michigan, and MSU. They certainly have the base to be really good, but for all the love their coach Tubby Smith receives from the media, they still have never finished above 6th with him at the helm. I'm going to say they have a pretty respectable year and have some quality wins, but don't make a major impact on the Big Ten race
Minnesota Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 6th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Good
Upset Status: Good
NCAA Tournament Status: NCAA Bid
The Gophers aren't bringing in a ton recruiting-wise in 2012, but with all the depth they've already established, it's not really something that's going to hurt them very much. A lot of their team should be around for a few years and they had a monster 2011 recruiting class featuring two ESPN100 players and four commits overall. Their current class has only two commitments and features no recruits on the ESPN100. Regardless, recruiting shouldn't be something that has a major impact on this team for next year, primarily because of their youth and depth.
Minnesota should be a much better squad next year and be able to compete with many of their top teams in the conference, but I don't think they've turned that corner quite yet. Getting their star player back, some more experience, and winning some tight games will go a long way, but I really don't see them being able to keep up with teams like Indiana, Michigan, and MSU. They certainly have the base to be really good, but for all the love their coach Tubby Smith receives from the media, they still have never finished above 6th with him at the helm. I'm going to say they have a pretty respectable year and have some quality wins, but don't make a major impact on the Big Ten race
Minnesota Predictions:
Big Ten Finish: 6th
Ability To Compete With Top Teams: Good
Upset Status: Good
NCAA Tournament Status: NCAA Bid
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